Climate Change honesty

[TSherbs]

I am currently in my second book by a very articulate climate science researcher who blames politicians and all types of media for misrepresenting the well-established research in climate science from around the world. Our leaders and our news outlets are seriously misleading us and letting us down.

Yes, humans are effecting global climate and this is having a (mostly) negative effect (now, only barely; in 80 years, somewhat more so). But the effects are not at all how I understood them, apparently, and not at all what the established scientific research in the field suggests. But you would never know by listening to politicians (of either party) nor to tv or print journalists.

Here is a book recommendation: "False Alarm," by Bjorn Lomborg.

[dneal]

Clearly you have become a Trumper... ;)

Seriously though, good topic.

I've seen his Ted Talks and other interviews (mainly Uncommon Knowledge at the Hoover Institution). He makes very salient points.

No doubt we are polluting the planet, but the hubris involved to think our relatively insignificant species affects something on a planetary scale is jaw-dropping. We've made a lot of progress, and have a lot of work to do.

Best reasonable way-ahead I've heard is a transition from coal to natural gas to nuclear. Production of electricity is exponentially a larger pollution source than cars.

If this topic interests you, look at the documentary "Pandora's Promise", Bill Gates' "TerraPower" initiative, and what France did compared to Germany.

There are lots of geopolitical effects too. Moving away from petroleum is an economic death sentence for Russia and many middle eastern countries if they don't adapt; but it also frees the rest of the world from their influence. Russia's is obvious, but there are problems like Saudi Arabia exporting radical Islam globally.

[TSherbs]

The research shows that we do "effect" the planet and that we are contributing to the rise in global temps (mostly through CO2 emissions). But the effect is small, the "damage" is small, and our ability--as individuals and/or through any of the most commonly suggested approaches--to effect any change to the direction of the arrow is minor.

[TSherbs]

Unsettled, by Steven Koonin, is another good book on this topic (physicist/data scientist)

[dneal]

The research shows that we do "effect" the planet and that we are contributing to the rise in global temps (mostly through CO2 emissions). But the effect is small, the "damage" is small, and our ability--as individuals and/or through any of the most commonly suggested approaches--to effect any change to the direction of the arrow is minor.

I think we agree, although I don't think we know as much about it as many claim. Once it got politicized, the bs from each side began (see big oil's campaign against nuclear, for example, scaring the "greenies" away from it...). My point was along the lines of Carlin's bit. It's extremely arrogant and vastly overestimates our significance in the cosmic scale.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDd6xCTkfas

[Chuck Naill]

The research shows that we do "effect" the planet and that we are contributing to the rise in global temps (mostly through CO2 emissions). But the effect is small, the "damage" is small, and our ability--as individuals and/or through any of the most commonly suggested approaches--to effect any change to the direction of the arrow is minor.

I have always questioned our collective ability to make a change in the trajectory of warming. I am also against the US giving money to compensate for emissions. Not that we should ignore efforts or alliances. Trump's approach is all he ever knew, but we do need to cooperate as much as is reasonable with other nations since we are all stakeholders. Perhaps through cooperating on one mission, we might prevent wars because we have relationships. I realise this is a bit Pollyanna. :)

[Bold2013]

Any of these sources suggest the warming is partially due to the earth coming out an ice age?

[TSherbs]

Any of these sources suggest the warming is partially due to the earth coming out an ice age?

What, since 1910? Since 1850? Since 1950? Since 1200 AD? Since 500 AD?

The books look at global temperatures over several scales, including hundreds of millions of years. "Unsettled" does the most work looking at temperatures in a dozen different kinds of graphs in different scales of time.

[Bold2013]

Sorry. I was thinking in the range of thousands (5-15).

Thanks

[TSherbs]

Sorry. I was thinking in the range of thousands (5-15).

Thanks

Yes, some of the graphs go back hundreds of millions of years.

The book is very thorough and informative.

Interesting, in the times of recorded human history, there have been some quite cold times, including around 1910 and 1950 (in an otherwise VERY stable temperature period in the larger picture.) But since 1950, the graph has been on a fairly steady rise. In the big picture, the change is nothing, but this concerns a debate about whether human-caused emissions have contributed to this rise. The answer among the most respected research is "yes, probably, somewhat, but the amount of influence is unclear." (Thus the title). Predictions about the future are a whole other series of chapters and graphs and analyses even of how the computer modeling is constructed. Fascinating.

[Chuck Naill]

How did you choose which book to read and do you plan to read any with other views?

[TSherbs]

Both given to me as gifts

[Cookedj]

I have seen his book but haven't gotten it yet. I think I'll kick it up the list now.

[Chuck Naill]

Both given to me as gifts

That’s even better 👍👍

[Chip]

As a field hydrologist in the 1980s, I was already measuring the effect of climate change. Four examples:

Ice-out dates for alpine lakes showed a longterm trend toward earlier thawing. Since we had to ski across snowcovered lake ice to collect samples, this was a concern.

Measured profiles for alpine lakes showed a trend to higher surface temperatures and the lowering of the thermocline (boundary of maximum density).

The onset of isothermal conditions (i.e. fall turnover) was consistently later.

We did a GPS survey to determine the volume/water content of a high glacier (Knifepoint in the Wind River Range, Wyoming, USA) and mapped the previous extent using old air photos. The extent and rate of recession were stunning. In some places, despite fairly consistent precipitation, the glacier had receded by a half-mile in 25 or 30 years.

Just read an article about the collapse of climate denialism. But it's being replaced by right-wing alarmist yelps about the crash of fossil fuel investments and the effect of impending droughts, crop failure, water shortages, disease, etc. on the rise in refugees and undocumented immigration.

[TSherbs]

Could you post that article, Chip? Or send a link to me in a PM? Thx.

[Chip]

Could you post that article, Chip? Or send a link to me in a PM? Thx.

I'll look for it. In The Guardian, I think.

Got it:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/21/climate-denial-far-right-immigration

There's a bombshell piece in The New Yorker about the covert support and financing from Italy and other Eurobloc nations for Libyan militias (aka the Coast Guard) that capture migrants (some in international waters), put them in concentration camps, ransom some, and torture or kill the rest. Quite a few are fleeing from the collapse of local agriculture and economies owing to climate change.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/12/06/the-secretive-libyan-prisons-that-keep-migrants-out-of-europe