The Virus

[ethernautrix]

Yeah, I'm going out only when necessary and avoiding the places that attract crowds and loiterers.

[Deb]

3000 people went to Brockwell Park in London yesterday because it was a nice warm day. It's going to be even warmer today so they have had to close the park. Sadly some people just won't listen.
It's Easter next weekend. Part of me hopes it's raining cats and dogs and blowing a gale. That might keep some in.

Honestly - they are bloody insane! We're going to end up with a huge infection rate because they just won't listen or think for themselves. And of course they will pass it on to some poor fragile innocent. They don't care.

[Chrissy]

3000 people went to Brockwell Park in London yesterday because it was a nice warm day. It's going to be even warmer today so they have had to close the park. Sadly some people just won't listen.
It's Easter next weekend. Part of me hopes it's raining cats and dogs and blowing a gale. That might keep some in.

Honestly - they are bloody insane! We're going to end up with a huge infection rate because they just won't listen or think for themselves. And of course they will pass it on to some poor fragile innocent. They don't care.

I just don't know what can make them behave responsibly.

[Pterodactylus]

I think you could ease up on VertOlive, Pterodactylus. There's no need for that.

13 residents have died in a care home in Glasgow. Something horribly wrong there. Old people in homes must feel terribly trapped in this situation. My mother is in a care home in the US and they are in total lockdown as two workers there have the virus. She has not seen another person for more than a week and it is getting to her.

Here in my little town in the far north of Scotland, all is very quiet. Most of the cars parked across the road have barely moved in weeks. Occasionally people will pass by with their dogs or out on their bicycles. People seem to be doing what they should though I don't know what it's like in the town centre where there is likely to be more activity than in my quiet residential street. I had to shop on Thursday this week. It was thankfully quiet and the shelves were well stocked apart from toilet roll, pasta and, strangely enough, baking soda and rosemary. What delicacy are people making?

We would love to shut the door and stay in until this crisis is over, but my husband has to go to dialysis three times a week. He is in the highest risk category, with kidney failure, bronchiectasis and COPD. Of course staff at the hospital are as careful as it is possible for them to be, but people can be infectious before they are symptomatic. We have a few masks but he thinks it would be difficult to wear a mask for the four hours of his dialysis. It may come to that.

It's bright, sunny and breezy. There are weeds out there that demand my attention and I have four little shrubs to plant.

Your husband should consider wearing a surgical mask (or a self made fabric mask).

They are quite easy to wear, also a longer time and provide according to newest studies quite ok protection against the Corona virus (depends also on he virus type, but works good with Corona), but of course do not replace social distancing and the other measures.
Even the WHO and many other medical sources claimed something different before.

I tried 3 weeks ago wearing a FFP1 mask I had in my workshop cellar (without a valve) during shopping, but I found it quite exhausting even after only 30-45 minutes.
I also have a bit of a problem with allergic asthma, so my lung is also my weak spot.

From tomorrow on it is mandatory in Austria to wear a mask in grocery stores.
They also have to disinfect the trolleys after each use and provide sanitizers and one time gloves to the customer.
The grocery stores have to provide a simple surgical mask for free when entering a store.
They already started to give out the masks last week and I found it quite easy to wear and breath with it.
This measure should mainly protect others from getting infected by people which donˋt even know they have it (it also could be spread by talking with each other, not only coughing and sneezing) but as said newest studies tell us that it has also protective aspects.

The government considering the opening of additional stores after Easter, but only under some restrictions like wearing a mask mandatory, limited amount of people simultaneously in the shops, sanitizers, gloves.
The current statistics look promising and since a couple of days more people recover than getting infected.
But of course they do not want to compromise the results by taken back measures too early and too fast as it would start all over again.

Unfortunately the Easter week will get very sunny and warm also here, so at least in the cities the people have to stay very disciplined.
And of course also there are unteachable complete idiots here which do not care, but the majority of people still cooperate and think the lock down is right.

[Deb]

Good post, Ptero. We have surgical masks and my husband will wear one to dialysis.

There is a youngish single man upstairs, a nice guy. He has a girlfriend who lives elsewhere. He works in security at a power station and is off-shift for about 10 days now. We hadn't seen the girlfriend and her kid for a couple of weeks but they're back now. It's very worrying. The kid's about four, hyperactive, hands all over everything, running out and in. The other upstairs neighbour is in his late seventies, not in the best of health. When he goes out he has to hang onto the handrail that she and the kid have touched.

This is the kind of criminal irresponsibility that will keep the virus going and allow it to claim more deaths

[TSherbs]

@Ethernautrix

Both the essay that you quoted for us and your own writing are beautiful. Thank you for sharing. I find comfort and kindred vibes in both. Blessings to you.

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[Chrissy]

Good post, Ptero. We have surgical masks and my husband will wear one to dialysis.

There is a youngish single man upstairs, a nice guy. He has a girlfriend who lives elsewhere. He works in security at a power station and is off-shift for about 10 days now. We hadn't seen the girlfriend and her kid for a couple of weeks but they're back now. It's very worrying. The kid's about four, hyperactive, hands all over everything, running out and in. The other upstairs neighbour is in his late seventies, not in the best of health. When he goes out he has to hang onto the handrail that she and the kid have touched.

This is the kind of criminal irresponsibility that will keep the virus going and allow it to claim more deaths

Wherever the girlfriend and her kid have been they should have stayed there and not visited the boyfriend at this time. The government restrictions are clear on that subject. It's yet another example of people being irresponsible.

At least here in the UK we still need the virus to continue to spread, at a reasonably consistent level, before we have enough people infected so that it ends up with no large pool of people left to infect. All of those people who are going out now are putting themselves forward as volunteers to catch it.

[ethernautrix]

@Ethernautrix

Both the essay that you quoted for us and your own writing are beautiful. Thank you for sharing. I find comfort and kindred vibes in both. Blessings to you.

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Thank you, TSherbs, for your very kind words. I appreciate your telling me.

Na zdrowie!

[VertOlive]

Ptero, where in my post, which was a simple observation of the local situation, do you see that I’ve abandoned the view that we are indeed adults? I think it’s interesting that the city dwellers are refusing to stay home while the mostly very wealthy island dwellers are staying in. That may have to do with age or culture, but there it is. They will do as they will and this will play out accordingly; as Chrissy would have it, they’re out there increasing the herd immunity.

Reporting further to say that Covid19 is now in the blood supply. We found a donor who was asymptomatic while giving blood who reported within the week that he is now diagnosed with the virus. We pulled all the blood products he’d given from the general inventory despite the Lab manager’s opinion that the virus can’t be transmitted by transfusion products. This must be happening in blood banks everywhere.

[Pterodactylus]

Ptero, where in my post, which was a simple observation of the local situation, do you see that I’ve abandoned the view that we are indeed adults? I think it’s interesting that the city dwellers are refusing to stay home while the mostly very wealthy island dwellers are staying in. That may have to do with age or culture, but there it is. They will do as they will and this will play out accordingly; as Chrissy would have it, they’re out there increasing the herd immunity.

Reporting further to say that Covid19 is now in the blood supply. We found a donor who was asymptomatic while giving blood who reported within the week that he is now diagnosed with the virus. We pulled all the blood products he’d given from the general inventory despite the Lab manager’s opinion that the virus can’t be transmitted by transfusion products. This must be happening in blood banks everywhere.

Herd immunity?
Forget this crazy thought, this is no solution, only foolish can think that this is the answer without accepting millions of dead’s and crushing the health system.

At the current infection rates It will take years until the minimum amount of immune people are reached to consider it a solution (at least 2 third of the people world wide).

Until a good treatment is found to help severe cases, or until a vaccination is found we will have to live with social distancing and measures (not talking about strict lock downs as long as people stay disciplined).

And I’m sure that a vaccination will not happen 2020, maybe never, vaccinations against viruses are difficult, e.g. think about Aids, Ebola or even Rhinoviruses.

And to be honest I’m not sure that the more likely option a effective medication will happen mid term.
Itˋs not a Bacterial thing which would be easier, the Pharma industry always struggled with virus treatments, look around, for the majority of viruses is no effective treatment known.

We will have to live with the virus and change our lifestyle accordingly.

The good thing is, social distancing works, and if we adapt we will find a new way of lifestyle (in the worst case for years).

Things will change and not be like before.

For sure global tourist industry and transportation will be almost dead.
Do you want to travel if you will have to stay in 14 days in quarantine on arrival in your destination country and again 14 days when you travel back in your country.

There will be of course local tourism, but this insane over tourism like in the last decade will be history.

And personally I think this is a good thing, this cheap traveling by plane was just crazy and extremely harmful for the environment.

I hope this crisis will change also some other things in your global mindset.
At least here in Europe the discussion about globalization already started, and personally I think this is a really good thing.
I hope the times of unlimited capitalism (to produce worldwide wherever it is cheapest) and “Geiz ist Geil” (buy the cheapest possible) are over.

Things should be produced wherever possible locally (talking not about nationalism, I mean with locally a feasible distance between producer and consumer, not country borders).

So the crises might have also some positive aspects.

[Pterodactylus]

I think you misunderstood me, I never talked about VertOlive.


I think you are wrong, also in the UK not even close to 70% of the people will get it in 2020 and 2021.
This would mean millions of dead’s and a NHS burnt to ash.

The current lock down measures will control it, you canˋt see it in the UK currently yet because Johnson did not reacted correctly and timely.

In a couple of weeks you will see the same as here in Austria (when people stay disciplined).
And then the discussion about easing the measures will start, as here already happens, and how our life’s has to change to keep it controlled.

We have currently far less than 1% of the people infected locally and the infection rate is controlled now.
No county will reach herd immunity in the next years, the results of letting this happen would be catastrophic.

The cases will go down in each country that took good countermeasures.
We are able to control it, but we can’t extinguish it as it is worldwide active.

Here are the current figures of Austria, the number of sick people is decreasing.

[Chrissy]

I never misunderstood you Ptero. Now you've gone completely over the top and started to leave everyone negative reputation including VertOlive and myself. I hope it makes you feel good.
You made it onto my ignore list

[TSherbs]

This would mean millions of dead’s and a NHS burnt to ash.

No. You seem to be misunderstanding what "get it" means. Millions will contract this virus without millions being seriously ill and without millions dying and the health system "burning to ash." You write this with unusual fervor. You might share with us why you think that you do this. I am puzzled by it, as others here seem to be. Do you see this virus as an agent of anti-global prophecy? Or just reactionary fear?

And reaching herd immunity is not a solution; it is a progressive stage in the course of some epidemiological patterns. And sometimes it saves the herd from protracted illnesses and death.



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[Pterodactylus]

I never misunderstood you Ptero. Now you've gone completely over the top and started to leave everyone negative reputation including VertOlive and myself. I hope it makes you feel good.
You made it onto my ignore list

Donˋt know what what you are talking about.
I already knew that a serious discussion with VertOlive is not possible and My posts were never targeted to her, fact is that she isnˋt not even close on my personal importance list to consider target her.

What I know is that I receive negative reputation for factual discussion, but who cares about such things in a trivial forum.

I donˋt.

And if It felt good to put me on your ignore list and removed me from your friend list, than so be it, as well as giving me negative reputation.

Glad that you feel better now, but it will change nothing regarding other facts.

Have a nice day, and stay healthy

[Chrissy]

This would mean millions of dead’s and a NHS burnt to ash.

No. You seem to be misunderstanding what "get it" means. Millions will contract this virus without millions being seriously ill and without millions dying and the health system "burning to ash." You write this with unusual fervor. You might share with us why you think that you do this. I am puzzled by it, as others here seem to be. Do you see this virus as an agent of anti-global prophecy? Or just reactionary fear?

And reaching herd immunity is not a solution; it is a progressive stage in the course of some epidemiological patterns. And sometimes it saves the herd from protracted illnesses and death.



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Please be careful what you say TSherbs he will retaliate to you like he has done to everyone else. He can't be reasoned with. He's decided he's the only person who is right and is not prepared to listen to any other opinion on the matter. Best to just leave him to it. Don't clickbait.

[Pterodactylus]

This would mean millions of dead’s and a NHS burnt to ash.

No. You seem to be misunderstanding what "get it" means. Millions will contract this virus without millions being seriously ill and without millions dying and the health system "burning to ash." You write this with unusual fervor. You might share with us why you think that you do this. I am puzzled by it, as others here seem to be. Do you see this virus as an agent of anti-global prophecy? Or just reactionary fear?

And reaching herd immunity is not a solution; it is a progressive stage in the course of some epidemiological patterns. And sometimes it saves the herd from protracted illnesses and death.



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I can tell you facts:
50.000 positive Tests in the UK and already 5400 dead in the UK.
130.000 positive Tests in Italy and already 16500 dead in Italy.
135.000 positive Tests in Spain and already 13.500 dead in Spain.
360.000 positive Tests in US and 11.000 dead in US.

Nowhere already millions were infected but many thousand dead’s already and health systems already on the limit (mainly in countries with poor countermeasures) with that really low number of infections.


Compare it with a country with early and strict measures like Austria:
12.300 positive Tests and 220 dead People, number of ill people already decreasing again.

I think the difference is obvious already.

I donˋt want to think about what will happen in not so far developed counties with high population like states in Africa or E.g. India.

Nobody knows the final lethality rate but assuming only a death rate of 1 - 2 percent in a country of 100 million people it could reach a million dead’s until herd immunity will take place.

Of course mainly the old and weak will die.... So letˋs sacrifice those.... fine idea.

And that you will stay immune after you got it for a longer time period is only a hypothesis and not proven yet.

[Deb]

Give it a rest, Ptero. You're becoming tedious.

[TSherbs]

I can tell you facts:
50.000 positive Tests in the UK ... .

Yes, that is how many positive tests. But that is not how many people have been exposed and contracted the virus. I have said this twice, now: the number of positive tests is not an indication of how many people actually have the virus in them and are showing no or only mild symptoms. We--and I am one of the them--are being told Do Not Test if you are not in a risk group. So your alarmist numbers are not indicative of anything about actual morbidity rates of those who have the virus. Caution is of course wise and recommended.

I ask you this again, too: WHY are you so fervant about this?





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[TSherbs]

Please be careful what you say TSherbs he will retaliate to you like he has done to everyone else. He can't be reasoned with....

Thx. We'll see in my case.



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[Pterodactylus]

I can tell you facts:
50.000 positive Tests in the UK ... .

Yes, that is how many positive tests. But that is not how many people have been exposed and contracted the virus. I have said this twice, now: the number of positive tests is not an indication of how many people actually have the virus in them and are showing no or only mild symptoms. We--and I am one of the them--are being told Do Not Test if you are not in a risk group. So your alarmist numbers are not indicative of anything about actual morbidity rates of those who have the virus. Caution is of course wise and recommended.

I ask you this again, too: WHY are you so fervant about this?





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True, there were assumptions that the number of not detected asymtomatic infections would be quite big.

But I’m aware of 2 studies which do not poof this theory (maybe somebody else know more).

In Island 6163 people were tested randomly to clarify representative the asymptomatic infection rate, only 52 were positive.
They extrapolated statistically representative that only 0.84% of the people in island are affected.

In Austria a similar study is currently running, a representative amount of people are currently randomly tested, the end result is not published yet but intermediate results indicate that also in Austria less than 1% of the people are infected, including the asymptomatic cases.

So I would not count on a huge amount of undetected cases, we are still in the beginning of this pandemic and herd immunity is far far away.