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Thread: The Virus

  1. #21
    Senior Member AzJon's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Virus

    Some quick statistics:

    The annual flue has about a .1% mortality rate. The Spanish Flu of 1918, the most deadly pandemic of the modern age, killing around 500 million people worlwide (that we could count) was 2%. On the upper end the Coronavirus has a mortality rate similar to the Spanish Flu (or higher), but similar to the average flu on the lower end. The discrepancies between reporting from China and Iran are troubling. Partly because it may be worse than what is coming out. Iran went from hundreds of reported deaths via media to 50 from their health minister. Neither of these two countries are good at reporting things that make the political power look bad.

    So far, the best advice is to use the same precautions you would against any other disease: cover your mouth when you cough/sneeze, avoid large group contact if possible, and wash your hands religiously.

    Facemasks will be useless to the general population

    Why?

    Because they broadly do not create a seal strong enough to keep the virus out and the ones that do shouldn't be worn all day. They are really only for short-term use by healthcare providers that are in known and immediate proximity to the virus. Putting on one of those paper masks all day is a net danger for the wearer because they create a warm, humid environment near the mouth that can breed other bacteria and be just as problematic.

    This PSA brought to you by spending way too much time researching epidemiology.

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    Senior Member FredRydr's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Virus

    I have not read any of the foregoing posts other than the thread title.

    The advice I follow on this subject is that repeated this morning by the representative of Pennsylvania's health department:


    My sincere wish is that all of you remain healthy as you use reliable sources of information.

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    Default Re: The Virus

    One of the most dangerous forces is fear. Unfortunately the media has been spreading fear at an unbelievable rate. Between this and the Michael Bloomberg ads, I want to drop off the internet altogether.

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    Default Re: The Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by empliau View Post
    I had two trips (March and May) planned and paid for, and likely they will be cancelled. Or I will cancel March, since it was to Italy and while it might be great to go to Italy when it's not crowded, I am afraid of being quarantined on my return to the US, assuming they let me return.

    We're taking a wait and see attitude. This situation changes day to day, but unfortunately epidemics tend to get worse before they get better.
    My friend was going to tour Italy this summer, but the tour company cancelled all tours for the foreseeable future.

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    Senior Member dneal's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Deb View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Gobblecup View Post
    I too am more worried about the flu. But frankly I could use some time in isolation with my pens, get a lot of writing done, maybe start on my second novel while I edit my first?
    I'm not sure why anyone would be more worried about the flu than about coronavirus. There's a vaccine against the flu. Though its effectiveness varies from year to year it forms at least some protection. To date there is no vaccine protection against this thing.
    Influenza kills up to 650,000 people each year. Over 120,000 have been hospitalized and over 6000 dead this year so far in the U.S. alone. That is with vaccines.

    The question is why more people are worried about a virus that is hyped up in the media instead of the actual virus that is killing people - and ignored by the media.

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    Default Re: The Virus

    Fermata is on their way to the London Pen Show and is not taking any chances.


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    Default Re: The Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by dneal View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Deb View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Gobblecup View Post
    I too am more worried about the flu. But frankly I could use some time in isolation with my pens, get a lot of writing done, maybe start on my second novel while I edit my first?
    I'm not sure why anyone would be more worried about the flu than about coronavirus. There's a vaccine against the flu. Though its effectiveness varies from year to year it forms at least some protection. To date there is no vaccine protection against this thing.
    Influenza kills up to 650,000 people each year. Over 120,000 have been hospitalized and over 6000 dead this year so far in the U.S. alone. That is with vaccines.

    The question is why more people are worried about a virus that is hyped up in the media instead of the actual virus that is killing people - and ignored by the media.
    I for one am worred when experts with known credentials and experience of pandemic predictions say on TV that they believe that the worst case scenario could be deaths of between 100,000 and 500,000 mostly in the over 60s. I become concerned when the European Parliament increases the risk factor of contracting the virus from Moderate to High. This is not media hype, it is the media reporting what more learned people advise. It is at this point that I listen and take notice of advice, which includes avoiding crowded places especially when you are within 1 metre of another person, avoiding public transport and making sure that I wash my hands frequently. I cannot think of any reason why I would bother to listen to the advice of experts and then ignore what they have to say, if for no other reason than I do not want to be the carrier of the virus into my home and contaminating my family.
    Last edited by Fermata; March 2nd, 2020 at 10:30 AM.

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  12. #28
    Senior Member dneal's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Fermata View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dneal View Post

    Influenza kills up to 650,000 people each year. Over 120,000 have been hospitalized and over 6000 dead this year so far in the U.S. alone. That is with vaccines.

    The question is why more people are worried about a virus that is hyped up in the media instead of the actual virus that is killing people - and ignored by the media.
    I for one am worred when experts with known credentials and experience of pandemic predictions say on TV that they believe that the worst case scenario could be deaths of between 100,000 and 500,000 mostly in the over 60s. I become concerned when the European Parliament increases the risk factor of contracting the virus from Moderate to High. This is not media hype, it is the media reporting what more learned people advise. It is at this point that I listen and take notice of advice, which includes avoiding crowded places especially when you are within 1 metre of another person, avoiding public transport and making sure that I wash my hands frequently. I cannot think of any reason why I would bother to listen to the advice of experts and then ignore what they have to say, if for no other reason than I do not want to be the carrier of the virus into my home and contaminating my family.
    So the numbers at worst are on par with the flu. The most susceptible of the population is the same. The risk and precautions are the same.

    Why be more worried at this point about the corona virus than the flu? If the media hyped the flu like they have done with the corona virus, your perception might be different. The “experts” on the news are paid. The media wants ratings. Plane crash reporting garners viewers. Corona virus is essentially “click-bait” at this point. SARS didn’t end up wiping out the human race. MERS didn’t either. They’re both types of corona virus. The media hyped them up too.
    Last edited by dneal; March 2nd, 2020 at 10:50 AM. Reason: Spelling

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  14. #29
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    Default Re: The Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by dneal View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Fermata View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dneal View Post

    Influenza kills up to 650,000 people each year. Over 120,000 have been hospitalized and over 6000 dead this year so far in the U.S. alone. That is with vaccines.

    The question is why more people are worried about a virus that is hyped up in the media instead of the actual virus that is killing people - and ignored by the media.
    I for one am worred when experts with known credentials and experience of pandemic predictions say on TV that they believe that the worst case scenario could be deaths of between 100,000 and 500,000 mostly in the over 60s. I become concerned when the European Parliament increases the risk factor of contracting the virus from Moderate to High. This is not media hype, it is the media reporting what more learned people advise. It is at this point that I listen and take notice of advice, which includes avoiding crowded places especially when you are within 1 metre of another person, avoiding public transport and making sure that I wash my hands frequently. I cannot think of any reason why I would bother to listen to the advice of experts and then ignore what they have to say, if for no other reason than I do not want to be the carrier of the virus into my home and contaminating my family.
    So the numbers at worst are on par with the flu. The most susceptible of the population is the same. The risk and precautions are the same.

    Why be more worried at this point about the corona virus than the flu? If the media hyped the flu like they have done with the corona virus, your perception might be different. The “experts” on the news are paid. The media wants ratings. Plane crash reporting garners viewers. Corona virus is essentially “click-bait” at this point. SARS didn’t end up wiping out the human race. MERS didn’t either. They’re both types of corona virus. The media hyped them up too.
    You do what you want.

    If an acknowledged expert in any field gives advice only a fool will not listen

  15. #30
    Senior Member Jon Szanto's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Virus

    I've been getting my information from mostly non-media sources, though you can find similar by sifting through those outlets as well. FWIW, here is a basic summation, as of a couple of days ago, from a respected source (and also part of the pen community). Ross McKinney, MD, is a pediatric infectious disease specialist and chief scientific officer of the Association of American Medical Colleges,

    * * * * *

    I’ve been asked for this note that I sent to my family & now the staff where I work:

    ………………………………………………………………………………….

    I hate to say it, but I think Coronavirus is coming our way. So here are a few pointers for when and if there’s an outbreak in our region (Our fingers are crossed that it not happen).

    Personal safety: keep a distance of six feet if possible, esp. if someone is coughing. Wash your hands often (Purell will work). Masks have no real utility other than to remind you not to touch your nose, mouth, or eyes. N95 respirators do work, but require a fit and will largely be restricted to hospital use because of their scarcity. Touch elevator buttons with a knuckle. Fist- or elbow-bump, don’t shake hands. Avoid places where crowds gather – airports, train stations, malls. Most sporting events will be called off.

    Prepare for schools to close, and prepare to have restrictions in terms of going out of your house – which means it’s worth having >two weeks’ worth of food, frozen or canned. That won’t be sufficient, but it’s a start. Think about beverages & water. This won’t be the sort of challenge that a hurricane or an ice storm brings. Power should stay on, getting gas for a car should be possible, radios and TVs will work. The internet will be on. You’ll be able to drive from location to location – but when you get there, who knows?

    If you have prescription meds, be sure to have a good supply. A month seems reasonable.

    Workplaces are likely to close and where people can work remotely, that will be the norm.

    Expect that schools will switch to virtual, on-line classrooms, at some point, if they have the resources. Or there could be a few weeks of snow-day equivalents.

    Prepare for cabin fever! In general, when there’s an epidemic people behave badly. Assume irrationality.

    We know that items made in China are going to be scarce. That could be items made anywhere by the time this is done.

    The current understanding of the clinical course is that 80% of people have a cold or nothing (although those asymptomatic people can apparently spread the virus – the #1 problem). 20% of people get seriously ill. Children do best, and the older you are, the worse the prognosis.

    Most important lesson: buy food & medicines, and start washing your hands!
    "When Men differ in Opinion, both Sides ought equally to have the Advantage of being heard by the Publick;
    and that when Truth and Error have fair Play, the former is always an overmatch for the latter."

    ~ Benjamin Franklin

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    Default Re: The Virus

    Reading through this, I'm reminded:

    "Today is a good day to die!"

  18. #32
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    Default Re: The Virus

    Stock up on food. Progresso soups are particularly good as they require no additional moisture and can be eaten from the can. Get 5-gallon buckets and fill with water-useful for washing, bathing, flushing toilets, and catching water from gutters. Fill up your cars with gas and a couple of 5-gallon jerry cans. If you have a propane grill buy a couple of extra tanks. Get a Coleman stove that uses propane and a Mr. Heater.

    If you take medicines, get a three- month supply from your doctor. Do that immediately.

    Remember your hot water tank has potable water.

    Get several hundred dollars in cash- ones, fives, and tens. No 20s, 50s, or 100s.

    Get plenty of dog food, cat food, and cat littler.

    Make a first aid-kit with lots of gauze, bandages, antiseptics, scissors, aspirin, ibuprofen, and acetaminophen. 70% alcohol, bleach, and a fifth of PGA.

    Even if you don't use this stuff for this event, you now have an emergency supply that you should have already had on hand.

    Avoid crowds, hospitals, and Wal-Mart. Go shopping now. When the panic hits it will be too late. Avoid driving after dark and before daylight.

    Honestly, it may happen and it may not. You have no control over it. All you can control is your reaction to the situation.
    Last edited by sgphoto; March 2nd, 2020 at 12:11 PM.

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    Default Re: The Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by sgphoto View Post
    Stock up on food. Progresso soups are particularly good as they require no additional moisture and can be eaten from the can. Get 5-gallon buckets and fill with water-useful for washing, bathing, flushing toilets, and catching water from gutters. Fill up your cars with gas and a couple of 5-gallon jerry cans. If you have a propane grill buy a couple of extra tanks. Get a Coleman stove that uses propane and a Mr. Heater.

    If you take medicines, get a three- month supply from your doctor. Do that immediately.

    Remember your hot water tank has potable water.

    Get several hundred dollars in cash- ones, fives, and tens. No 20s, 50s, or 100s.

    Get plenty of dog food, cat food, and cat littler.

    Make a first aid-kit with lots of gauze, bandages, antiseptics, scissors, aspirin, ibuprofen, and acetaminophen. 70% alcohol, bleach, and a fifth of PGA.

    Even if you don't use this stuff for this event, you now have an emergency supply that you should have already had on hand.

    Avoid crowds, hospitals, and Wal-Mart. Go shopping now. When the panic hits it will be too late. Avoid driving after dark and before daylight.

    Honestly, it may happen and it may not. You have no control over it. All you can control is your reaction to the situation.
    It seems you are a experience prepper.

    ..... what was it exactly you are preparing yourself? WW3?

  21. #34
    Senior Member AzJon's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by dneal View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Deb View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Gobblecup View Post
    I too am more worried about the flu. But frankly I could use some time in isolation with my pens, get a lot of writing done, maybe start on my second novel while I edit my first?
    I'm not sure why anyone would be more worried about the flu than about coronavirus. There's a vaccine against the flu. Though its effectiveness varies from year to year it forms at least some protection. To date there is no vaccine protection against this thing.
    Influenza kills up to 650,000 people each year. Over 120,000 have been hospitalized and over 6000 dead this year so far in the U.S. alone. That is with vaccines.

    The question is why more people are worried about a virus that is hyped up in the media instead of the actual virus that is killing people - and ignored by the media.
    Because we have predictable models about flu outcomes. Because a mortality rate of .1% racks up a lot of deaths when the total infection numbers are in the millions.

    The 2019/2020 flu season has had an estimate 45 million cases with 46 thousand deaths in the United States this year. If the coronavirus is as virulent as the flu and maintains that 2% mortality rate that would mean a total of 900,000 deaths in the USA alone. An upper end of nearly a million people is a huge number for one season of an illness.

    Its also not as if the flu and coronavirus will kill the same populations. We could see 45,000 seniors and children killed by the flu and an additional 45,000 from coronavirus.

    We are likely seeing significantly fewer infection due to large-scale massive surveillance and containment of the disease.

    Citation: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

    As the saying goes: hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

    Edit: and on cue, the death toll is now 6, which makes the domestic mortality rate 1.8%

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...-live-updates/
    Last edited by AzJon; March 2nd, 2020 at 02:23 PM.

  22. #35
    Senior Member dneal's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Fermata View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dneal View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Fermata View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dneal View Post

    Influenza kills up to 650,000 people each year. Over 120,000 have been hospitalized and over 6000 dead this year so far in the U.S. alone. That is with vaccines.

    The question is why more people are worried about a virus that is hyped up in the media instead of the actual virus that is killing people - and ignored by the media.
    I for one am worred when experts with known credentials and experience of pandemic predictions say on TV that they believe that the worst case scenario could be deaths of between 100,000 and 500,000 mostly in the over 60s. I become concerned when the European Parliament increases the risk factor of contracting the virus from Moderate to High. This is not media hype, it is the media reporting what more learned people advise. It is at this point that I listen and take notice of advice, which includes avoiding crowded places especially when you are within 1 metre of another person, avoiding public transport and making sure that I wash my hands frequently. I cannot think of any reason why I would bother to listen to the advice of experts and then ignore what they have to say, if for no other reason than I do not want to be the carrier of the virus into my home and contaminating my family.
    So the numbers at worst are on par with the flu. The most susceptible of the population is the same. The risk and precautions are the same.

    Why be more worried at this point about the corona virus than the flu? If the media hyped the flu like they have done with the corona virus, your perception might be different. The “experts” on the news are paid. The media wants ratings. Plane crash reporting garners viewers. Corona virus is essentially “click-bait” at this point. SARS didn’t end up wiping out the human race. MERS didn’t either. They’re both types of corona virus. The media hyped them up too.
    You do what you want.

    If an acknowledged expert in any field gives advice only a fool will not listen
    It baffles me that people can't have a discussion without insulting an opposing viewpoint. Did I subtly imply you were a fool? Was your remark necessary? Of course not, so you can take your attitude and a generous handful of salt and rub them in your ass.

    Here's an actual doctor (sometimes we call them acknowledged experts), who knows and worked with the head of infectious diseases at the CDC (who might also be an acknowledged expert).

    Last edited by dneal; March 2nd, 2020 at 02:53 PM.

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    Default Re: The Virus


    Show_response_775 by Ptero Pterodactylus, auf Flickr

    (Pelikan 140 - OF ..... Diamine China Blue)

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  26. #37
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    Default Re: The Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Pterodactylus View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sgphoto View Post
    Stock up on food. Progresso soups are particularly good as they require no additional moisture and can be eaten from the can. Get 5-gallon buckets and fill with water-useful for washing, bathing, flushing toilets, and catching water from gutters. Fill up your cars with gas and a couple of 5-gallon jerry cans. If you have a propane grill buy a couple of extra tanks. Get a Coleman stove that uses propane and a Mr. Heater.

    If you take medicines, get a three- month supply from your doctor. Do that immediately.

    Remember your hot water tank has potable water.

    Get several hundred dollars in cash- ones, fives, and tens. No 20s, 50s, or 100s.

    Get plenty of dog food, cat food, and cat littler.

    Make a first aid-kit with lots of gauze, bandages, antiseptics, scissors, aspirin, ibuprofen, and acetaminophen. 70% alcohol, bleach, and a fifth of PGA.

    Even if you don't use this stuff for this event, you now have an emergency supply that you should have already had on hand.

    Avoid crowds, hospitals, and Wal-Mart. Go shopping now. When the panic hits it will be too late. Avoid driving after dark and before daylight.

    Honestly, it may happen and it may not. You have no control over it. All you can control is your reaction to the situation.
    It seems you are a experience prepper.

    ..... what was it exactly you are preparing yourself? WW3?
    We do most of these things anyway, every year. By December we have two freezers full of garden produce and meats, not because there may be a national emergency, but because 1.) The food tastes better. We actually taste our food. We don't sit down at the table with a fork in one hand and a smartphone in the other. 2.) It is cheaper. In our situation, a penny saved is not a penny earned; a penny saved is 5 pennies earned. The stockpiled food is not wasted; we use it all before replenishing.

    We also have kerosene heaters and a generator because the electrical grid is not reliable. A tornado has wrecked the grid here for weeks. Frozen and burst pipes are a real expensive mess. We have needed our cold weather sleeping bags many times.

    When something bad or even really inconvenient happens, we don't have to go to the grocery store and face empty shelves and look stupid.
    "Nothing is enough for the man to whom enough is too little." -Epicurus-

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    Default Re: The Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Pterodactylus View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sgphoto View Post
    Stock up on food. Progresso soups are particularly good as they require no additional moisture and can be eaten from the can. Get 5-gallon buckets and fill with water-useful for washing, bathing, flushing toilets, and catching water from gutters. Fill up your cars with gas and a couple of 5-gallon jerry cans. If you have a propane grill buy a couple of extra tanks. Get a Coleman stove that uses propane and a Mr. Heater.

    If you take medicines, get a three- month supply from your doctor. Do that immediately.

    Remember your hot water tank has potable water.

    Get several hundred dollars in cash- ones, fives, and tens. No 20s, 50s, or 100s.

    Get plenty of dog food, cat food, and cat littler.

    Make a first aid-kit with lots of gauze, bandages, antiseptics, scissors, aspirin, ibuprofen, and acetaminophen. 70% alcohol, bleach, and a fifth of PGA.

    Even if you don't use this stuff for this event, you now have an emergency supply that you should have already had on hand.

    Avoid crowds, hospitals, and Wal-Mart. Go shopping now. When the panic hits it will be too late. Avoid driving after dark and before daylight.

    Honestly, it may happen and it may not. You have no control over it. All you can control is your reaction to the situation.
    It seems you are a experience prepper.

    ..... what was it exactly you are preparing yourself? WW3?
    Emergencies, natural disasters, anything that can happen.

    I don't consider myself a wild-eyed prepper- just prepared. I once spent 28 days without electricity and running water during a 1983 blizzard when I lived in the mountains. But I had a wood stove, cords of wood, put-up food stocks, buckets to melt snow for bathing and flushing toilets, kerosene for lamps, etc. All my mountain neighbors were the same. We all made it just fine. Only thing I ran out of was pot but was able to trade 3 gallons of kerosene for an ounce of Panama Red. I had a fifty gallon barrel of kerosene.

    And since all the mountain folk were good shots, no one stole anything. At least I never heard of anyone trying. There was lots of burying room in those mountains.

    That's the reason gold is useless in such situations. Can't eat it, drink it, smoke it, or mate with it.

    But I do know how other people who are unprepared panic and then seize an opportunity to take from those who are prepared. You're from Austria. Ask the sons and daughters of old timers how they survived and lived after WW2. If you've ever gone hungry for days on end, or been homeless and exposed to the elements, you'll take your food and shelter seriously.

    The best way to take care of other people is to take care of yourself first. Then you're not a burden on the system.

    Prepper? Not really -just old-fashioned common sense.

    Cheers.
    Sg
    Last edited by sgphoto; March 2nd, 2020 at 04:16 PM.

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  30. #39
    Senior Member ethernautrix's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Virus

    Isn't the main difference between seasonal flu and COVID-19 that one can be contagious for two weeks before symptoms show?

    I'm already a hands-washer (not Howard Hughes level; Japanese-mother level [walk into the home. Japanese mother says, Wash your hands. So, an old habit. ]). Now I just have to stop touching my face (allergies, sneezing). Heh.

    Here's a YouTube video, uploaded in October 2018, a documentary about the 1918 Spanish Flu: https://youtu.be/UDY5COg2P2c.

    The most useful information was how two U.S. cities responded in drastically different ways (until the second or third wave -- after the first, San Francisco let its guard down).

    I don't have any advice that others haven't already mentioned. Staying calm and taking precautions -- yeah? Makes sense.
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  32. #40
    Senior Member dneal's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by ethernautrix View Post
    Isn't the main difference between seasonal flu and COVID-19 that one can be contagious for two weeks before symptoms show?

    I'm already a hands-washer (not Howard Hughes level; Japanese-mother level [walk into the home. Japanese mother says, Wash your hands. So, an old habit. ]). Now I just have to stop touching my face (allergies, sneezing). Heh.

    Here's a YouTube video, uploaded in October 2018, a documentary about the 1918 Spanish Flu: https://youtu.be/UDY5COg2P2c.

    The most useful information was how two U.S. cities responded in drastically different ways (until the second or third wave -- after the first, San Francisco let its guard down).

    I don't have any advice that others haven't already mentioned. Staying calm and taking precautions -- yeah? Makes sense.
    I don't think they know at this point. You're contagious with influenza for about a day before symptoms appear, and 5-7 days after.

    Other corona viruses (this is just one particular strain) like SARS have contagious periods of about 2 weeks after symptoms appear, and a day or two (at most) before. I think you may be confusing how long a person is contagious before symptoms, with the incubation period (time from exposure until symptoms appear).

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