The Virus

[Paddler]

What should we do until this latest virus runs headlong through the population and generates a good herd immunity? My wife and I are discussing this. We may decide to hole up and write a new decameron, or maybe even a vigintimeron while pestilence rages outside. (Wow! this spell-checker is an ignorant piece of fluff.) Our ink cellar could hold out for a long time; if it ran low, I could always make more with some walnut hulls. Pens are no problem; I have plenty of them. Getting a few reams of paper might be a good idea.

[Fermata]

I went to buy some food yesterday. As I was paying a mother and her two under 10 children were waiting in line, they were both coughing and sneezing.

I moved away as quickly as I could and boxed up my purchases.

The man at the check out, said to the mother 'Whats this about', she said 'I know, their school is closed because of the virus, I have had to come home from work, we have no food in the house and they are going to be home for 2 weeks, I couldnt leave them at home'.

She had brought two children who were contagious to a public place and they were spreading their germs, all this in a time when there is a heightened awareness of a disease that could be a killer to some.

Doctors on TV are talking about self isolation, not only in your own home, but in your own room, with your own cutlery and so on.

Did this problem really start from a chinese person buying a bat at a market and eating it as some people suggest.

[BlkWhiteFilmPix]

The source of this particular virus, is thought to be a market in China.

See the article at https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...aign=DM1211572

As the article reports, bats are hosts to a variety of zoonotic viruses (ones that have jumped from animals to people).

Richard Preston's recent book discusses how Ebola may have emerged: Crisis in the Red Zone

Laurie Garrett's The Coming Plague remains a definitive in-depth (620-page) source on emerging diseases.

Today's Guardian offers some hope: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...P=share_btn_tw

[manoeuver]

The source of this particular virus, is thought to be a market in China.

I certainly hope this turns out to be true.
As governments and media seem to be more interested in narrative management than truth telling, I am taking these reports with a hefty dose of salt.

I'm asking myself and others tough questions like:
What would a weaponized virus look like if it got out into the world?
How would a government respond if it knew such a thing had happened?

Maybe the virus came from bats and pangolins. Maybe something much worse has happened.
Don't bet the farm on either scenario. Don't panic, don't predict. Prepare.

Good luck everybody.

[Scrawler]

The source of this particular virus, is thought to be a market in China.

I certainly hope this turns out to be true.
As governments and media seem to be more interested in narrative management than truth telling, I am taking these reports with a hefty dose of salt.

I'm asking myself and others tough questions like:
What would a weaponized virus look like if it got out into the world?
How would a government respond if it knew such a thing had happened?

Maybe the virus came from bats and pangolins. Maybe something much worse has happened.
Don't bet the farm on either scenario. Don't panic, don't predict. Prepare.

Good luck everybody.

Not necessarily weaponized. They do have a high containment facility a few hundred yards from the market. But that facility was only doing research with patented strains for vaccine development purposes. I don't think there is any conspiracy here. I don't believe it originated there, but if did then either a worker had an equipment failure and was infected, or in the absolute worst possible case, carcasses of experimental animals entered the food chain through that local market.

[manoeuver]

What would extreme paranoia look like if it got out into the world?

I appreciate the sentiment. It's hard to distinguish between paranoia and acknowledging certain plausible (if unlikely) scenarios.
I also acknowledge that my paranoia may not be of much help if the worst-case scenario turns out to be the actual case.

I'm not making any claims-- I don't know any more than anyone else.

What's harmful is pretending to know more than one actually does, I'm doing my best to avoid that.

Not necessarily weaponized. They do have a high containment facility a few hundred yards from the market. But that facility was only doing research with patented strains for vaccine development purposes. I don't think there is any conspiracy here. I don't believe it originated there, but if did then either a worker had an equipment failure and was infected, or in the absolute worst possible case, carcasses of experimental animals entered the food chain through that local market.

You may be right. You'll also understand I don't really trust PRC to be forthcoming about their bioweapons programs either. Sounds paranoid, I know. Also note well I'm not claiming COVID is an escaped bioweapon, just looking the possibility of it square in the face.

The overarching theme I'm trying to get across here is this:
When there is risk of ruin you focus on the most damaging scenario, not the most likely. If you're wrong, that's fine, you're still alive.

For more on that line of reasoning I recommend reading Nassim Taleb, he writes about risk in all his books. In this case I'd say check out The Black Swan and/or Antifragile.

More later, but in the meantime I'd like to say I'm glad to be able to have a civil/constructive discussion about this topic with you folks. I've been thinking about it a lot and not many people are able to talk dispassionately about this kind of thing.

[Brilliant Bill]

The source of this particular virus, is thought to be a market in China.

See the article at https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...aign=DM1211572

As the article reports, bats are hosts to a variety of zoonotic viruses (ones that have jumped from animals to people).

Richard Preston's recent book discusses how Ebola may have emerged: Crisis in the Red Zone

Laurie Garrett's The Coming Plague remains a definitive in-depth (620-page) source on emerging diseases.

Today's Guardian offers some hope: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...P=share_btn_tw

All archivists I know strongly recommend getting things on to paper -- text, photos, whatever. Thanks.

[sharmon202]

This virus, like at least one previously, came from a "wet" market in Wuhan. Preparing food in terrible conditions.

[Chrissy]

As we're both retired we don't tend to go out so much, but yesterday was our day at the hairdressers. Another customer coughed without covering her mouth the whole time she was in there and I wondered if I should have had a mask.

Currently when mail comes through the letterbox we wash our hands after opening it.

Edited for spelling mistake.

[inklord]

... still much more likely that you die in a car accident. And by the time the virus has gained the upper hand (over other causes of death): maybe mother nature realized there are too many individuals of this one species of overly cerebral primates on this planet...

[jar]

As we're both retied we don't tend to go out so much, but yesterday was our day at the hairdressers. Another customer coughed without covering her mouth the whole time she was in there and I wondered if I should have had a mask.

Currently when mail comes through the letterbox we wash our hands after opening it.

And while you were untied?

[Brilliant Bill]

The U.S. stock market is in full 1929 mode. In the end, that may prove more damaging than an infectious disease.

[Cookedj]

The U.S. stock market is in full 1929 mode. In the end, that may prove more damaging than an infectious disease.

There are many people that say this is intentional - not to get too kooky conspiracy. There are too many questions......

[Paddler]

The U.S. stock market is in full 1929 mode. In the end, that may prove more damaging than an infectious disease.

Its OK. I planned for that while I was in a guard shack, hugging an M14.

[Cookedj]

Working in a school, I watch the lack of manners and have students sneezing and coughing without covering their mouth. Mix this with the lack of hygiene (hand washing etc) and there is no wonder why the flu has been spreading. I worry less about the Corona virus and more about the flu.

[usk15]

... still much more likely that you die in a car accident....

Working in a school, I watch the lack of manners and have students sneezing and coughing without covering their mouth. Mix this with the lack of hygiene (hand washing etc) and there is no wonder why the flu has been spreading. I worry less about the Corona virus and more about the flu.

According with Associated Press, today from 89000 cases there are roughly 3000 deaths, which is a rate of ~3%. A normal flu has kind of same rate or higher!
After reading about this subject from previous years and different flues, the virus is deadly to individuals with low immune system; most likely elderly, children and others with some different diseases. I don't know about any conspiracy, but I blame media for induce panic!
Anyway, it is a very good idea to wash your hands, avoid crowded places too, and have a stock of food.

As for pens and inks...they will outlast me.

[jar]

I'm thinking of opening a Nosegay & Medico della Peste mail order site.

[Paddler]

Now we have subjects for two parts of the new decameron: The Pen Collector's Tale and The Veteran's Tale.

[Gobblecup]

I too am more worried about the flu. But frankly I could use some time in isolation with my pens, get a lot of writing done, maybe start on my second novel while I edit my first?

[Deb]

I too am more worried about the flu. But frankly I could use some time in isolation with my pens, get a lot of writing done, maybe start on my second novel while I edit my first?

I'm not sure why anyone would be more worried about the flu than about coronavirus. There's a vaccine against the flu. Though its effectiveness varies from year to year it forms at least some protection. To date there is no vaccine protection against this thing.