The Virus

[Jon Szanto]

Tonight, I'm going to write a couple of notes to people with this pen, and I'm going to listen to one of Bela Bartok's remarkable string quartets and study with my score. There is only so much angst and worry we should put ourselves through. Reach out, reach inside, and find balance. Peace.

(The quote I cited is by Timber Hawkeye)

[DaveBj]

This is Sacred Harp, a specialized breed of gospel music from the 1800s; my mother's family was heavily into it. All the singers in this ensemble was "phoning in" their performances from their own homes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKMiPMcN_l8

[dneal]

U.K. epidemiologist radically lowers his predicted coronavirus death toll

A British epidemiologist who earlier predicted the U.K. could suffer up to 500,000 coronavirus deaths has now testified the actual figure may be less than 20,000 and that the U.K. should have sufficient intensive care units to handle it.

Neil Ferguson, who is at Imperial College London and who has now contracted COVID-19 himself, made the startling turnaround in parliamentary testimony Wednesday, according to multiple reports. All of his statistics are derived from computer modeling.

While the National Health Service’s ICU needs will be pushed to the limit in various hot spots, nationwide the nation should be able to cope with the emergency, which he expects will peak in the next two to three weeks, he said.

The remarkable change in Mr. Ferguson’s predictions came about due to new data that suggests the virus, which first infected people in Wuhan, China, last year, moves much faster than originally thought. Researchers at Oxford have now tentatively concluded that potentially half the U.K. population has already been infected, in a story first reported by The Financial Times.

Consequently, that would mean coronavirus is far less lethal than early death rates suggest.

[Dreck]

Tonight, I'm going to write a couple of notes to people with this pen, and I'm going to listen to one of Bela Bartok's remarkable string quartets and study with my score. There is only so much angst and worry we should put ourselves through. Reach out, reach inside, and find balance. Peace.

That's a great idea, Jon (and a gorgeous pen!).
Today would've been Sarah Vaughan's 96th birthday. As much as I love her live rendition of "How High Is (sic) The Moon," she performed a lot of great stuff and had a voice that almost rivaled Ella Fitzgerald's. Here's a substantial collection to add a little classic Jazz to your day.

[Jon Szanto]

Sarah Vaughn stuff...

Dreck, thanks for the link to that collection! That will be on play today while I work on stuff. While it wasn't 'intimate' like playing in her combo, I worked with Vaughn a couple times early in my career, backing her trio up with our symphony. Such a wonderful artist! And the drummer was Jimmy Cobb, who also played on John Coltrane's "Giant Steps" date.

[Fermata]

Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Health Secretary have both contracted the virus.

Boris made a point of saying, only a short time ago, that people would be 'pleased to know' that the coronavirus threat would not stop him greeting hospital patients with a handshake. Boris has a pregnant girlfriend but is now in isolation.


I have just been to try and get buy some bread, milk and eggs. The queue outsde the store was 1/4 mile long, ok there was a 6 foot gap between the people, the line didnt seem to be moving at all, I didnt wait. You can no longer buy groceries for home delivery unless you are in the highest risk group.

[AzJon]

U.K. epidemiologist radically lowers his predicted coronavirus death toll

A British epidemiologist who earlier predicted the U.K. could suffer up to 500,000 coronavirus deaths has now testified the actual figure may be less than 20,000 and that the U.K. should have sufficient intensive care units to handle it.

Neil Ferguson, who is at Imperial College London and who has now contracted COVID-19 himself, made the startling turnaround in parliamentary testimony Wednesday, according to multiple reports. All of his statistics are derived from computer modeling.

While the National Health Service’s ICU needs will be pushed to the limit in various hot spots, nationwide the nation should be able to cope with the emergency, which he expects will peak in the next two to three weeks, he said.

The remarkable change in Mr. Ferguson’s predictions came about due to new data that suggests the virus, which first infected people in Wuhan, China, last year, moves much faster than originally thought. Researchers at Oxford have now tentatively concluded that potentially half the U.K. population has already been infected, in a story first reported by The Financial Times.

Consequently, that would mean coronavirus is far less lethal than early death rates suggest.

Isn't that from the newspaper that Sun Myung Moon, the business venture capitalist that was also and evangelical? I'm all for good news in the news, but...

As a counter argument, he seems to have changed his tune after being hounded by Trump and his followers over his initial prediction: https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...litized-trump/

As far as I can tell, there are literally no other epidemiologists making such a claim and boots on the ground reporting is showing that we are already maxing out health care capacity in areas currently hard hit.

edit: besides, what good does it do to tell everyone that it won't be that bad? Other than to allow businesses to reopen and fewer medical supplies needing to be offered by the state?

No, sir, I will stick to an adage that has served me well in this life: Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

[sgphoto]

I grew up listening to old 78s of Fats Waller, Ella Fitzgerald, Duke Ellington, Louie Armstrong, Sarah Vaughn, Dinah Washington, King Oliver and the Dixie Syncopaters, and others of the 30s, 40s, and 50s.

One of the major things that separate those talents from today's music is that they could stand alone with simple accompaniment, and knock it out of the park.

Today, most contemporary music is purely staging with a rarely heard ability to perform without electronic voice-enhancing devices, backup dancers and singers, and screaming crowds and deafening volumes to cover the lack of abilities. It's showmanship, not musical talent.

There are exceptions, but they are rare.

[Cookedj]

The Army is deploying 2 field hospitals from Kentucky to Manhattan. They are the same ones that deployed for the Ebola outbreaks in Africa.

[jar]

This is Sacred Harp, a specialized breed of gospel music from the 1800s; my mother's family was heavily into it. All the singers in this ensemble was "phoning in" their performances from their own homes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKMiPMcN_l8

Shape singing?

[Pterodactylus]

The Army is deploying 2 field hospitals from Kentucky to Manhattan. They are the same ones that deployed for the Ebola outbreaks in Africa.

I hope this will help (at least for the moment) every additional bed is essential.

Short update from Europe:
Today alone 919 people in Italy died so far (9134 in total), 86498 known infected so far.
Also the figures from Britain, Spain and France in particular look quite bad (countries with late measures)

In Austria the early strict measures seem to work and slowed it down a bit: 58 dead and 7399 known infected so far but still increasing way too much (measures need at least 2 weeks to show some effects).

[Jon Szanto]

Shape singing?

Probably better known as Shape-note Singing.

Shape-note singing, a musical practice and tradition of social singing from music books printed in shape notes. Most common in the rural South of the US, and frequently referred to (also) as Sacred Harp singing, from the name of one of the most important hymnbooks of the tradition.

[dneal]

U.K. epidemiologist radically lowers his predicted coronavirus death toll

A British epidemiologist who earlier predicted the U.K. could suffer up to 500,000 coronavirus deaths has now testified the actual figure may be less than 20,000 and that the U.K. should have sufficient intensive care units to handle it.

Neil Ferguson, who is at Imperial College London and who has now contracted COVID-19 himself, made the startling turnaround in parliamentary testimony Wednesday, according to multiple reports. All of his statistics are derived from computer modeling.

While the National Health Service’s ICU needs will be pushed to the limit in various hot spots, nationwide the nation should be able to cope with the emergency, which he expects will peak in the next two to three weeks, he said.

The remarkable change in Mr. Ferguson’s predictions came about due to new data that suggests the virus, which first infected people in Wuhan, China, last year, moves much faster than originally thought. Researchers at Oxford have now tentatively concluded that potentially half the U.K. population has already been infected, in a story first reported by The Financial Times.

Consequently, that would mean coronavirus is far less lethal than early death rates suggest.

Isn't that from the newspaper that Sun Myung Moon, the business venture capitalist that was also and evangelical? I'm all for good news in the news, but...

As a counter argument, he seems to have changed his tune after being hounded by Trump and his followers over his initial prediction: https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...litized-trump/

As far as I can tell, there are literally no other epidemiologists making such a claim and boots on the ground reporting is showing that we are already maxing out health care capacity in areas currently hard hit.

edit: besides, what good does it do to tell everyone that it won't be that bad? Other than to allow businesses to reopen and fewer medical supplies needing to be offered by the state?

No, sir, I will stick to an adage that has served me well in this life: Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

I posted a link where a leading U.K. epidemiologist told Parliament that it doesn’t look as dire as initially projected, and you have criticism... of the reporting source? Who cares who reported it? It’s a positive thing! “Well, hur dur, he only changed his story because, you know, Trump.”

Unbelievable.

[TSherbs]

The Army is deploying 2 field hospitals from Kentucky to Manhattan. They are the same ones that deployed for the Ebola outbreaks in Africa.

I hope this will help (at least for the moment) every additional bed is essential.

Short update from Europe:
Today alone 919 people in Italy died so far (9134 in total), 86498 known infected so far.
Also the figures from Britain, Spain and France in particular look quite bad (countries with late measures)

In Austria the early strict measures seem to work and slowed it down a bit: 58 dead and 7399 known infected so far but still increasing way too much (measures need at least 2 weeks to show some effects).

Good luck and God bless.

[TSherbs]

I posted a link where a leading U.K. epidemiologist told Parliament that it doesn’t look as dire as initially projected, and you have criticism... of the reporting source? Who cares who reported it? It’s a positive thing! “Well, hur dur, he only changed his story because, you know, Trump.”

Unbelievable.

So, do you believe this revised estimate? Why did you post it? And, although you are usually not happy about it, it is fair to criticise the reporting source of the article. This article is terrible. It is poorly written, it uses vague terms, and it uses only hyperlinks for its sources (usually a sign of weak writing--where a reporter is not required to name the sources in the text of the article (I teach journalism).

But anyway, from my point of view, that initial estimate of 500K deaths for the UK seems so high that now I don't trust the guy's calculations. And now he has lowered them to less than 5% of his original estimate! Well, alrighty. But I think I'll listen to someone else now, no matter what this guy's numbers are. If others begin to agree, well fine. Besides, its not the number of "deaths" that overwhelms hospitals. It's the number of seriously sick patients. Nothing in this article predicts the number of seriously sick patients. And the writer of the article should have known this and written the whole piece differently.

[dneal]

I posted a link where a leading U.K. epidemiologist told Parliament that it doesn’t look as dire as initially projected, and you have criticism... of the reporting source? Who cares who reported it? It’s a positive thing! “Well, hur dur, he only changed his story because, you know, Trump.”

Unbelievable.

So, do you believe this revised estimate? Why did you post it? And, although you are usually not happy about it, it is fair to criticise the reporting source of the article. This article is terrible. It is poorly written, it uses vague terms, and it uses only hyperlinks for its sources (usually a sign of weak writing--where a reporter is not required to name the sources in the text of the article (I teach journalism).

But anyway, from my point of view, that initial estimate of 500K deaths for the UK seems so high that now I don't trust the guy's calculations. And now he has lowered them to less than 5% of his original estimate! Well, alrighty. But I think I'll listen to someone else now, no matter what this guy's numbers are. If others begin to agree, well fine. Besides, its not the number of "deaths" that overwhelms hospitals. It's the number of seriously sick patients. Nothing in this article predicts the number of seriously sick patients. And the writer of the article should have known this and written the whole piece differently.

Why would he lie in a brief to his government? Sure he may be wrong. I believe the community is learning every day, and will revise estimates as more information is discovered.

The thing I found unbelievable is that a glimmer of hope received such a negative response.

“Expert says situation not as dire as initially believed”. “WHAT??? SCREW THAT GUY!!!”

[85AKbN]

unedited vimeo video

NYC FRONT LINES DOCTOR EXPLAINS HOW EASY IT IS TO NOT GET INFECTED AND STOP THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 3-24-20

Dr. Dave Price of Weill Cornell Medical Center in New York City shares CRUCIAL information on how we can stop the spread and get back to normal, well, kinda normal. His experience with the virus and people infected for the last 3 months has given him great confidence on how not to get infected. Rules to protect yourself and family. It's a must watch! Recorded March 22

[sospiro]

FYI:

Neil Ferguson on March 26th

https://mobile.twitter.com/neil_ferguson?lang=en

1/4 I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.

2/4 This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.

3/4 My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.

4/4 Without these controls our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).

[sgphoto]

FYI:

Neil Ferguson on March 26th

https://mobile.twitter.com/neil_ferguson?lang=en

1/4 I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.

2/4 This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.

3/4 My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.

4/4 Without these controls our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).

Isn't it amazing how some people will so misrepresent what Neil Ferguson said? Sociopaths often twist everything to make themselves look wise and the need to continually defend their self-importance.

Good health also includes social distancing from sociopaths whether there's a virus or not.

[TSherbs]

FYI:

Neil Ferguson on March 26th

https://mobile.twitter.com/neil_ferguson?lang=en

1/4 I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.

2/4 This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.

3/4 My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.

4/4 Without these controls our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).

Isn't it amazing how some people will so misrepresent what Neil Ferguson said? Sociopaths often twist everything to make themselves look wise and the need to continually defend their self-importance.

Good health also includes social distancing from sociopaths whether there's a virus or not.

Either Ferguson himself or that Washington Times "reporter" blew this one (likelier the reporter, which makes my point about how the quality of the source matters). Those numbers aren't a revision! They are a comparison of two different scenarios: one without distancing, and one with.

For fuck's sake.

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