Combatting the virus and economic risk

[dneal]

At some point, I’m not sure the economic damage we’re sustaining warrants the current approaches to “flattening the curve”.

It seems a holistic view is absent, replaced by competing, myopic, either/or viewpoints. Is “shut everything down” necessarily the only reasonable method of mitigating risk?

[sgphoto]

Shutdowns have worked in South Korea and in China. Shutdowns are the price you pay. The sooner the better. Ask Italy, Spain, England, and soon the US.

Slow to shut down, more cases of infections. This is not debateable. This is not the 'flu.'

What do you suggest that works as well?

[dneal]

Shutdowns have worked in South Korea and in China. Shutdowns are the price you pay. The sooner the better. Ask Italy, Spain, England, and soon the US.

Slow to shut down, more cases of infections. This is not debateable. This is not the 'flu.'

What do you suggest that works as well?

If it's not debatable, please feel free to refrain from it. Nobody said it's the flu. That's a strawman argument, and not even a very good one.

South Korea, Italy and China were all different situations. Different populations, different responses.

South Korea did wide-spread testing and quarantined those positive. It appears to have been highly effective. Italy just locked everybody in their neighborhoods. Their high average population and low critical care capacity led to a high percentage of deaths. China built new hospitals in days.

[Pterodactylus]

Shutdowns have worked in South Korea and in China. Shutdowns are the price you pay. The sooner the better. Ask Italy, Spain, England, and soon the US.

Slow to shut down, more cases of infections. This is not debateable. This is not the 'flu.'

What do you suggest that works as well?

If it's not debatable, please feel free to refrain from it. Nobody said it's the flu. That's a strawman argument, and not even a very good one.

South Korea, Italy and China were all different situations. Different populations, different responses.

South Korea did wide-spread testing and quarantined those positive. It appears to have been highly effective. Italy just locked everybody in their neighborhoods. Their high average population and low critical care capacity led to a high percentage of deaths. China built new hospitals in days.

I also do not want to debate.

You donˋt have to be a geniuses to understand that with exponential growth of infections and the amount of people which need hospitalization and further ventilation it will only take very few weeks (depending on the health care situation in specific countries some days more or less) until the health care systems collapse.

Yes you still can argue that you donˋt care that up to 8 - 10% (and yes if the health care systems collapsed it will be for sure such a high percentage as nobody will be able to take care about the medium and heavy cases) death rates, and that economic growth and shareholder value is more important than life's, as the majority of the younger people with no pre-existing illnesses will survive.
Than so be it.

But I will not discuss such a scenario.

To be honest, I donˋt care about economic damage, stock losses and shareholder value in such a situation.

I’m with Jon every economic damage can be rebuilt, lifes cannot.

Think about the situation after the two WW’s where everything was destroyed, the only thing we effectively loosing now is time, money (many of it virtual money) and personal convenience (no infrastructure will be destroyed).

I really think that the best we can do now is flatten the curve as best as we can until effective medication is discovered. (And “effective medication” is for sure not an ancient cheap malaria medicament as numskull Trump claims).

That’s all I have to say.

[Deb]

At some point, I’m not sure the economic damage we’re sustaining warrants the current approaches to “flattening the curve”.

It seems a holistic view is absent, replaced by competing, myopic, either/or viewpoints. Is “shut everything down” necessarily the only reasonable method of mitigating risk?

So what's the holistic view?

[dneal]

At some point, I’m not sure the economic damage we’re sustaining warrants the current approaches to “flattening the curve”.

It seems a holistic view is absent, replaced by competing, myopic, either/or viewpoints. Is “shut everything down” necessarily the only reasonable method of mitigating risk?

So what's the holistic view?

Kind of what I'm asking.

Perhaps sequester the more vulnerable population, increase testing and individual quarantines, activate reserve medical units to mitigate a surge in capacity requirement?

No one is really abiding by the social distancing. Sure they're not at work. They're at WalMart looking for toilet paper.

[Jon Szanto]

No one is really abiding by the social distancing.

No, it isn't perfect compliance and there will be a price to pay for it; however, in our area it is far, far better than "no one". Every person that doesn't become infected and, therefore, every person that doesn't transmit, reduces the burden on the medical community in battling this pandemic. I can't imagine the courage for those people to go to work, knowing that their government has failed to protect them in a very foreseeable situation, and yet they choose to go and try to save lives while leaving their families at home.

I'm royally pissed off at the arrogant, selfish and stupid people who can't control themselves enough to self-isolate for a short time. I'm also getting pretty pissed-off at the rising tide of sacrificing an older generation on the altar of money. Mostly, I'm pissed at myself for ever thinking that this country was better than that.

[dneal]

No one is really abiding by the social distancing.

No, it isn't perfect compliance and there will be a price to pay for it; however, in our area it is far, far better than "no one".

It's not "no one"? How many people aren't going out to buy groceries? Does San Diego have a large population of preppers or Mormons with 5 years of rations stocked away and I just didn't know about it?

Every person that doesn't become infected and, therefore, every person that doesn't transmit, reduces the burden on the medical community in battling this pandemic. I can't imagine the courage for those people to go to work, knowing that their government has failed to protect them in a very foreseeable situation, and yet they choose to go and try to save lives while leaving their families at home.

Anyone putting their faith in a government to protect them, particularly the federal government, is ignorant to government and its bureaucracy.

I'm royally pissed off at the arrogant, selfish and stupid people who can't control themselves enough to self-isolate for a short time. I'm also getting pretty pissed-off at the rising tide of sacrificing an older generation on the altar of money. Mostly, I'm pissed at myself for ever thinking that this country was better than that.

I don't disagree with the first part, the beach-going students being a great example. There's just a little bit of hyperbole in the latter though. No one is talking about sacrificing the older generation.

[FredRydr]

...No one is really abiding by the social distancing. Sure they're not at work. They're at WalMart looking for toilet paper.

The question was loaded to begin with. Serious answers weren't really being sought. The OP has no alternatives but for a link. And the thread descends into BS of a superlative that isn't true but posted for effect.

Isn't the internet grand?

The name of the "Lounge" should be changed to Jo Momma!

[dneal]

...No one is really abiding by the social distancing. Sure they're not at work. They're at WalMart looking for toilet paper.

The question was loaded to begin with. Serious answers weren't really being sought. The OP has no alternatives but for a link. And the thread descends into BS of a superlative that isn't true but posted for effect.

Isn't the internet grand?

The name of the "Lounge" should be changed to Jo Momma!

No, it just demonstrates the inability of most internet denizens to have a calm, rational discussion.

I'll bow out before the real wailing and gnashing of teeth begins.

Hobbes' State of Nature is always hiding behind the thin facade of civilization. People will try to convince themselves otherwise.

[Jon Szanto]

No, it just demonstrates the inability of most internet denizens to have a calm, rational discussion.

I'm sorry that my response was certainly one that kicked it in that direction. There have certainly been other times, and other subjects, where calm and rational discussion would be far easier to offer and maintain. I know that I'm on edge, fraught with concerns for family and friends caught up in all this far deeper than I and, having that layer underneath most of my daily considerations, the concept of casual and mindful discussion on the economics of the pandemic, as it is affecting the United States, is likely beyond me.

I should have simply not replied at all.

[ilikenails]

No, it just demonstrates the inability of most internet denizens to have a calm, rational discussion.

...Aren't you the whacko who said that no Austrian's opinion should be listened to about c19 because Franz Ferdinand started WW1 by not being bullet proof??? One has to wonder how you define "calm" - and wonder still more what "rational" might mean to such a mind...

(Oh, the hilarity!)

[Deb]

At some point, I’m not sure the economic damage we’re sustaining warrants the current approaches to “flattening the curve”.

It seems a holistic view is absent, replaced by competing, myopic, either/or viewpoints. Is “shut everything down” necessarily the only reasonable method of mitigating risk?

So what's the holistic view?

Kind of what I'm asking.

Perhaps sequester the more vulnerable population, increase testing and individual quarantines, activate reserve medical units to mitigate a surge in capacity requirement?

No one is really abiding by the social distancing. Sure they're not at work. They're at WalMart looking for toilet paper.

Many people are abiding by the social distancing. Admittedly many others are not but saying no-one is overstating the case. I've never seen the streets quieter. There's no increase in testing here because of a lack of testing kits. The other things you mention such as self-isolation of those at risk, and the activation of reserve medical people are being done. Retired GPs and nurses, final year students and volunteers have reported for duty in their thousands. Maybe the powers that be are developing a holistic view.

Mind you, I'm not saying that our government reacted well. They were at least a week late in announcing a lockdown and the legislation is trailing behind. That was because they were more concerned about the economic rather than the human cost. A reasonable government would move fast to minimise the bad effects on both.

[Jon Szanto]

I'd rather be broke than dead. Economies can be rebuilt, but Lazarus appears to be a one-off.

[dneal]

I'd rather be broke than dead. Economies can be rebuilt, but Lazarus appears to be a one-off.

Good job demonstrating the either/or position.

Do you think a depression level event and the societal calamity that results from it is less serious?

[Wile E Coyote]

I'd rather be broke than dead. Economies can be rebuilt, but Lazarus appears to be a one-off.

Good job demonstrating the either/or position.

Do you think a depression level event and the societal calamity that results from it is less serious?

Yes

[sgphoto]

I'd rather be broke than dead. Economies can be rebuilt, but Lazarus appears to be a one-off.

Good job demonstrating the either/or position.

Do you think a depression level event and the societal calamity that results from it is less serious?

Ask the dead if they prefer depression and societal calamity.

I also said that shutdowns work to flatten the curve and stave off infections. Re-read what I wrote.

Again, you have no answers. Just pissing-up-a-rope responses.

We could all wait until all the testing is done, medical beds are ready, and everything is coming up roses while the dead pile up around your ankles. In the meantime, shutdowns work.

And I'm not at Wal-Mart. I got ready for this two months ago. And I've been practicing social distancing for at least three weeks.

[Jon Szanto]

Good job demonstrating the either/or position.

Look, I think that the self-isolation/quarantine way is the only way to go. Call it either/or if you want, I don't think we've even gone drastic enough. I don't think there *is* a viable middle ground in this at the moment. I base this on advice and information from the medical and scientific communities. If you want me to move off of that stance, propose something that isn't at the expense of far more lives.

Do you think a depression level event and the societal calamity that results from it is less serious?

My parents survived one. Our country pulled together. With leadership and a common goal, I see no reason it couldn't happen again.

Just think if the top 0.02% of our population (make your own fraction there) who hold the vast, vast bulk of our monetary resources decided, as a civic gesture, to help restore the economy from which they had so greatly benefited. An economic disturbance is something that can be recovered from. Frankly, if the mindset is to simply not care if people die, needlessly, for the sake of economic benefit - literally giving their lives for Wall Street - then why even attempt to save anything? Has the concept of human life become so cheapened?

[eclectic]

AGREED;rational persuasive analysis.

[dneal]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/rethink...Lm-JCZBu9tj4Yc

May be behind a paywall.