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    Member Dave's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Okay, so the next part is reason why I wanted to make sure I understood your data.

    Do you think that the number of confirmed cases -for the US, but this also applies to Mass. - and the resultant hospitalization/death rates, are sufficient to allow a generalisation to the wider population?*

    In other words, has anyone done a power calculation for the population of the US, and is published anywhere?

    Or to put it a third way, are the demographics of the number of confirmed cases representative of the US population as a whole?

    *bearing in mind that this sort of thing is never completely accurate.
    Last edited by Dave; April 23rd, 2020 at 02:36 AM.

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    Senior Member ethernautrix's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by Dave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ethernautrix View Post
    Hey yo, we got a Dave in the house!
    Is this a local FPG joke or something? Like in the TV show?
    Are you familiar with the Kids In the Hall, in particular a little ditty that Bruce sings that goes "These are the Daves I know, I know, these are the Daves I know." ?

    Well, dneal is not a Dave I know, I know. So, just poking a little fun at myself. And now the inside joke is outside for all to respond with a disinterested "huh" and moving right along to actual topics.



    My other post was aimed at why people overlook the good in the bad. Removing half the population, for example, may be painful for those who lose friends/family/notable enemies, and it would impact on business/industry for a time. On the other hand, the world as a whole may well be an immeasurably better place to live for the half who remain. Personally I believe we're overpopulated by a factor of 5. We have no natural constraints, or at least hadn't thought so until now. SARS-Cov-2 and other as yet unknown pathogens could well be that constraint.

    In another vein, there are many people who cannot function appropriately in a society without constraints and controls imposed on them. Large tranches of community ills can be laid at the feet of these people. Perhaps forgoing some imagined freedoms on all would be a way of reducing these problems to a level where the quality of life for all would be better on average.

    Point is that today's world is no utopia, not even close. Maybe we are due a paradigm shifting change?
    Quickly, cos I have to cook up some fried-egg-pepperoni-and-cheese sandwiches to wolf down before a mental-health-restorative bike ride....

    I posted a video of Alan Watts telling the parable of the Chinese farmer in one of the other threads. In essence, the farmer did not indulge emotional spikes to events, whether good (a pleasurable event) or bad (a painful event), taking the long view -- how an ostensibly good event (a son is born!) can lead to a bad event (the son has an accident that leaves him with a permanent disability) can lead to a good event (because of the disability, the son is exempt from the military draft) and so on.

    I'm thinking of this especially now, because I don't know what the landscape is going to look like once this pandemic ends. What if we end up with a Terminator/Matrix/Soylent Green/Minority Report reality?

    Maybe human proliferation has thrown the ecosystem so far out of balance, the only thing Nature can do is unleash these pandemics as a self-defense mechanism every now and again, trying to restore a little balance. (This makes sense only to those who believe that humans are causing grievous injury to the planet. To those who don't, it's a crazy idea.)

    I've been checking daily the C19 stats at worldometers.info. The site provides many odometers, such as births today, deaths today, current world population, deaths from water troubles (lack of clean water availability), metric tons of toxins released into the environment today, and much more that my cursory glance didn't note.

    Anyway, as Mike says, we can't know the denominator until all those confirmed cases have an outcome, and so we can't know the death rate (which is presumably inflated at the moment). I tend to agree (and hope it isn't just hope) that the death rate from C19 will end up being a tiny fraction, such as we see with seasonal influenza.
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  3. #43
    Member Johnny_S's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    There are media reports that elderly residents of care homes and the like are not being sent to hospital on the basis that the hospital may have limited resources and that the elderly have a much reduced chance of a full recovery.

    As I understand it the deaths of such persons take some time to appear in the official death figures as do deaths at home.

    eta

    I have been on some forums today for my other interests, every one of them has some extremely cranky people right now, never seen anything like it before.


    Maybe we are not so bad after all
    Last edited by Johnny_S; April 23rd, 2020 at 07:21 AM.

  4. #44
    Senior Member dneal's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    A few thoughts:

    We see the rate of confirmed cases rise, and assume it is due to the virus spreading wildly. While contagion is surely part of the equation, as is the fact that more testing should identify more cases; I wonder how much of it is due to worry among the population? "Did I cough? Oh crap, I have a dry cough! Do I have coronavirus? I should go get tested!" The problem of the denominator remains. How many cases exhibited mild to moderate symptoms (or no symptoms), and have not been included in the metrics? Until we get a better handle on this number, we won't know how "deadly" the virus is and what policies are appropriate. I think we are learning that the virus is not nearly as dangerous to the general population as we first thought, and we may have overreacted.

    No one wants to die, and survival is a natural instinct. There are many reasons that fear is heightened, but a primary one is our media. They all have an agenda, even if it's simply ratings/profit. Very few "news" pieces are free of opinion (where they used to be clearly labeled as such), and facts are selectively presented to skew public opinion one way or another. This isn't a right or left thing. They all do it. There's certainly some political motive present, and the extent depends on the outlet. Strangely, it's a vicious circle. The media whips the public up into a frenzy, politicians act because they want to stay in office and don't want anything to be used against them, and the media then does the very thing the politicians fear. The public reacts, politicians react, the media reacts. Lather, rinse, repeat.

    Actions taken by politicians are now in the spotlight, most specifically the executive or authoritarian "orders" implemented or imposed. Are those going to lead to a dystopian future? A surveillance state? Restrictions on liberty? I don't think there's a blanket answer. Authoritarian regimes, nanny states, and simple "good idea fairies" always try to implement more "rules" which are restrictions on liberty. You can summarize it with the well intentioned idiots clamoring that "there ought to be a law!!!". This is part of the vicious circle, and people will use it as leverage to accomplish whatever their goals are.

    The acceptance of this depends on the particular society, and it's impossible to generalize. There are "useful idiots" who think giving government more tools is a good thing. There are authoritarians who are happy to get them. There are people who begrudgingly cede a little of their liberty and conscientious bureaucrats who use their new power(s) benignly. I think the latter is the exception, and one look at the U.S. after 9/11 is instructive. Local police departments now use cell tower spoofers, or "Stingers" for whatever they want. Don't need a warrant if you don't ask for one and don't get caught using it; and then claim to courts that you're not allowed to answer whether or not your department even has one. The NSA sucks in pretty much every bit of internet and telephone traffic - to catch terrorists and certainly not to spy on John Q. Public... until that one authoritarian bureaucrat notes that it sure would be nice to know who that was talking about (pick the topic). Britain is the example that comes to my mind of widespread surveillance that's generally accepted. Many places in the U.S. rebel against even the idea of red light cameras.

    Last thought is the "nature unleashes" or "defense mechanism" comment. I think it's a combination of Darwin's theory of natural selection and Hobbes' state of nature (state of war). Although there are examples of complimentary or symbiotic sub systems, the bottom line is that life on the planet is in constant struggle. One thing's survival is always at the expense of another. We're just conceited about our place in it all.

  5. #45
    Senior Member ethernautrix's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by dneal View Post
    Although there are examples of complimentary or symbiotic sub systems, the bottom line is that life on the planet is in constant struggle. One thing's survival is always at the expense of another. We're just conceited about our place in it all.
    So much agreement.
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    Senior Member Dreck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by dneal View Post
    A few thoughts:

    We see the rate of confirmed cases rise, and assume it is due to the virus spreading wildly. While contagion is surely part of the equation, as is the fact that more testing should identify more cases; I wonder how much of it is due to worry among the population? "Did I cough? Oh crap, I have a dry cough! Do I have coronavirus? I should go get tested!" The problem of the denominator remains. How many cases exhibited mild to moderate symptoms (or no symptoms), and have not been included in the metrics? Until we get a better handle on this number, we won't know how "deadly" the virus is and what policies are appropriate. I think we are learning that the virus is not nearly as dangerous to the general population as we first thought, and we may have overreacted.
    Indiana typically loses about 154 people yearly to the flu and flu-related complications. Since March, we have over 700 confirmed COVID-19 deaths (Indiana State Department of Health). These are people who tested positive for COVID-19 and subsequently died. That is not to say that these patients didn't have some underlying comorbidity, but the virus was severe enough to exacerbate their medical condition to the point of death. Regardless of the number infected versus the number who die as a result of infection, I think it's safe to say this coronavirus is extremely dangerous.

    I don't know about other states, but here the resources are stretched thin enough that you can't just go get tested if you cough and think, "Oh, crap! I should get tested." There are a rigorous course of criteria that must be satisfied before anyone gets tested for COVID-19.
    Last edited by Dreck; April 23rd, 2020 at 12:17 PM.
    Online arguments are a lot like the Rocky Horror Picture Show.
    As soon as the audience begins to participate, any actual content is lost in the resulting chaos and cacophony.
    At that point, all you can do is laugh and enjoy the descent into debasement.

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    Senior Member dneal's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    I thought that seemed low, and the CDC shows about 1,100 deaths from flu/pneumonia in Indiana. That was 2018, but previous years are similar.

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    Senior Member Dreck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by dneal View Post
    I thought that seemed low, and the CDC shows about 1,100 deaths from flu/pneumonia in Indiana. That was 2018, but previous years are similar.
    Oops! I misspoke. Or rather, mistyped. What I meant to type was 154 dead this month last year due to the flu, and so far several hundred more than that in one month to COVID-19. Out of 13,039 confirmed positive cases, 706 deaths comes out to about a 5% fatality rate.
    Last edited by Dreck; April 23rd, 2020 at 02:08 PM.
    Online arguments are a lot like the Rocky Horror Picture Show.
    As soon as the audience begins to participate, any actual content is lost in the resulting chaos and cacophony.
    At that point, all you can do is laugh and enjoy the descent into debasement.

  9. #49
    Useless mhosea's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by Dave View Post
    Do you think that the number of confirmed cases -for the US, but this also applies to Mass. - and the resultant hospitalization/death rates, are sufficient to allow a generalisation to the wider population?*
    Well, New York's numbers are substantially worse insofar as they can be compared.

    Testing rates make for a wildcard that is difficult to account for because the decision to test introduces bias. And then there's the impact of being in the middle of a wave rather than having completed it--lots of patients still hospitalized. Some will die, some will not. Case fatality rates may rise across the board from their current levels because of this. OTOH, more testing "on a whim" will tend to add mild and asymptomatic cases to the confirmed bin, which will push case fatality rates lower. Short answer: who knows?
    --
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    Senior Member dneal's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by Dreck View Post
    Out of 13,039 confirmed positive cases, 706 deaths comes out to about a 5% fatality rate.
    Yes, but thatís with a denominator that might not be accurate. If the low end of actual infections is 25 times your number, the denominator is 325,000 and a fatality rate of 0.2%.

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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here


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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    New York has begun preliminary antibody testing, and initial estimates are that 14% have already been infected. That brings the fatality rate to 0.5%

    Reuters link

    Note that the New York Times is reporting Cuomo as saying the number is 21%.

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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by dneal View Post

    ....and that would apply to me also.

    Perhaps to add a much smaller circle of concern on how is the world going to move back to what we knew in the past.

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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny_S View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dneal View Post

    ....and that would apply to me also.

    Perhaps to add a much smaller circle of concern on how is the world going to move back to what we knew in the past.
    #MyVennToo


    Plus a circle for concern about post-pandemic society. Whatever it is, I'm sure we'll manage, but I hope it won't require heroic lengths of "management."
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by dneal View Post
    People stupid enough not to realise that "Me" equals "Most people" in the above = You and some other nuts...

    Where you differ from sane opinion is that your definition of "seriously" isn't that of anyone who has actually considered reality. The US has already hit 50,000 deaths with lockdown measures in place most states. It's probably going to hit a total of 250,000. Without a lockdown, things would have been much, much worse - not least because as deaths among medical personnel climbed, care would have broken down. At which point you'd be looking at something like the early stages of the epidemic in Wuhan, where the death rate was about 3 times higher than when proper care was provided through the expansion of medical facilities.

    The other reason sane people have contempt for you is that you're fantasizing about an authoritarian state on the grounds that - teh horrors! - public health legislation is being enforced during a pandemic. Just as it has been before during US history -eg 1918. But the same nuts have been fine while President Bleach's lawyers claimed the constitution no longer applied to him-

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/16/p...-19/index.html
    This week, he said he had "total" authority over states to determine when businesses, schools and other entities reopen across the country and, separately, threatened to invoke never-before-used or tested authority to shut down Congress so he could push through his appointees without a Senate vote.


    Obviously, you're ridiculous.
    Last edited by ilikenails; April 24th, 2020 at 11:28 AM.

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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by ilikenails View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dneal View Post
    People stupid enough not to realise that "Me" equals "Most people" in the above = You and some other nuts...

    Where you differ from sane opinion is that your definition of "seriously" isn't that of anyone who has actually considered reality. The US has already hit 50,000 deaths with lockdown measures in place most states. It's probably going to hit a total of 250,000. Without a lockdown, things would have been much, much worse - not least because as deaths among medical personnel climbed, care would have broken down. At which point you'd be looking at something like the early stages of the epidemic in Wuhan, where the death rate was about 3 times higher than when proper care was provided through the expansion of medical facilities.

    The other reason sane people have contempt for you is that you're fantasizing about an authoritarian state on the grounds that - teh horrors! - public health legislation is being enforced during a pandemic. Just as it has been before during US history -eg 1918. But the same nuts have been fine while President Bleach's lawyers claimed the constitution no longer applied to him-

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/16/p...-19/index.html
    This week, he said he had "total" authority over states to determine when businesses, schools and other entities reopen across the country and, separately, threatened to invoke never-before-used or tested authority to shut down Congress so he could push through his appointees without a Senate vote.


    Obviously, you're ridiculous.

    There is something seriously wrong with you, you need help.

    Just when this forum sees a return to people being civil and showing respect you come along with abuse and derogatory comments.

    Either you are a malicious bastard with too much time on his hands or there is something wrong with your mind, whatever it is, we don't care.

    Ignore him and without an audience this offensive man will just fade away.

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    Senior Member dneal's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here


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    Useless mhosea's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny_S View Post
    without an audience this offensive man will just fade away.
    Unfortunately, while some trolls only get off if you join in, I fear his type only needs to believe he is being seen to be self-gratified. When he speaks to us, he really believes that he has humiliated us with an attack that we can have no reasonable response to and that, by itself, our humiliation is a service to the greater good. Even when ignored, this type will be back at intervals to grace us with superior insight and pre-teen reading comprehension. I don't think it is in our power to prevent that by any means, but tolerating it without response will result in the most welcoming environment possible under the circumstances.
    Last edited by mhosea; April 24th, 2020 at 03:02 PM.
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    Senior Member dneal's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by mhosea View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny_S View Post
    without an audience this offensive man will just fade away.
    Unfortunately, while some trolls only get off if you join in, I fear his type only needs to believe he is being seen to be self-gratified. When he speaks to us, he really believes that he has humiliated us with an attack that we can have no reasonable response to and that, by itself, our humiliation is a service to the greater good. Even when ignored, this type will be back at intervals to grace us with superior insight and pre-teen reading comprehension. I don't think it is in our power to prevent that by any means, but tolerating it without response will result in the most welcoming environment possible under the circumstances.
    I genuinely get a kick out of the absurdity. I don't have a problem letting them know that.

    I envisage the smug liberal chick meme. So "stunning and brave", but one small trigger away from a meltdown - which is why we usually see multiple consecutive posts. Raging on the internet is a way to feel empowered, I suppose.


    feministchick.jpg
    Last edited by dneal; April 24th, 2020 at 03:41 PM.

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    Useless mhosea's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by dneal View Post
    I genuinely get a kick out of the absurdity. I don't have a problem letting them know that.
    Just for the record, I don't have a problem with anybody doing that. If I'm not actually entertained, I am at least ambivalent to the back-and-forth. I kind of see it in the same light as when my wife stays on the phone with a scammer to give them false hope. I don't see it as bickering or fighting, rather as manipulating the manipulator, turnabout being fair play. I just sense that it makes some people uncomfortable.
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