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    Default Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here


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    Senior Member ethernautrix's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    That's cute, but the "pen men" and women I know are scientista (at least one, literally, is a rocket scientist), engineers, coders -- you know, people used to dealing with data and facts. One reason I appreciate pen people so much is the opportunity to learn, cos I'm usually the dumbest one at the table. Which is why I have to rely on humor, har har.

    I do have a perhaps contentious question, though. Is anyone tracking the data on death rates? I've seen posts on FB about numbers of deaths by other causes than COVID-19 ["C19"] to put C19 deaths in perspective. (Clumsy attempts, usually.) But have the death rates from non-C19 causes been "stable" (that is, as expected given past numbers)? Or have they changed significantly? (Implying, have they gone down, because those deaths are now being attributed to C19?)

    And what are those implications?



    I will say from the start that I'll read anyone's opinion no matter how it's stated, but for those who want to persuade others to agree with them (i.e., not interested in preaching to the choir), please remember that how you present your argument can help you or hinder you in this goal.

    If you just want to yell and rant from lack of control, flail away. It's understandable, given the emotional upheaval of these times, but if you want to be taken seriously by your opponent, try to see your argument from that point of view, or at least the words you use. Would you listen to you if you talked to yourself in that manner?... Your choice.
    _____________
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    You have said that in a tactfull and diplomatic manner that I could not have managed, in particular the sentence 'please remember that how you present your argument can help you or hinder you in this goal.'

    The most erudite person will have an audience of deaf ears when they start to shout.

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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Animal control just reported in my state that road kill is down.

    Sent from my Moto E (4) using Tapatalk

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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny_S View Post
    It is good to see you being so easily amused in these strange times.

    Compared to 140 character communication, anonymous forum posts, email blasts siphoned through spam filters, information lost when the format changes, there will be a remnant who preserve the old ways, not simply chasing the next big thing.

    There will be those that honor the arts and crafts:
    -calligraphy
    -hand bound books
    -dovetail furniture
    -painted, not computer generated, artwork
    -contemplative thinking beyond memes.

    I neither take offense nor condemn you for your easy laughter. I do suggest that you underestimate all of the old ways to your detriment and peril. Remember: this is a pen place, and pen-necked geeks may lurk here.

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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by kazoolaw View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny_S View Post
    It is good to see you being so easily amused in these strange times.

    Compared to 140 character communication, anonymous forum posts, email blasts siphoned through spam filters, information lost when the format changes, there will be a remnant who preserve the old ways, not simply chasing the next big thing.

    There will be those that honor the arts and crafts:
    -calligraphy
    -hand bound books
    -dovetail furniture
    -painted, not computer generated, artwork
    -contemplative thinking beyond memes.

    I neither take offense nor condemn you for your easy laughter. I do suggest that you underestimate all of the old ways to your detriment and peril. Remember: this is a pen place, and pen-necked geeks may lurk here.
    With all respect, this is a very odd post, I cannot say that I understand what you are trying to say.

    There is some misunderstanding, perhaps mine, I don't know.

    The reference is with regards to the number of heated exchanges that have taken place on this forum with regards to the virus, a great deal of misquoting and even some poor quality information. The suggestion that I was looking to make was that if you wanted to know more about Covid 19 and discuss how, what, when and why with regards to the virus you would not automatically go to a Pen Forum for that information.

    I take your point with regards to the preservation of the old ways, but I would suggest to you that the interests that you describe have a natural home on FPG and much more so than the aggressive arguments that we have all seen when people have discussed, for example, the virus and the economic consequences.

    It was also suggested, by others, that if the Virus had to be discussed on FPG then this sub forum would be a better place to have this discussion rather than the Lounge.

    I may have made the wrong decision to have what I thought was a humorous meme as an opening heading for the thread, no offense to pen persons was intended, it was more of a suggestion that pen people may not be the most obvious experts on the Virus to provide the best advice.

    Perhaps they are.

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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    No offense made, and none taken.

    Be well, and hand write something today.

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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by kazoolaw View Post
    No offense made, and none taken.

    Be well, and hand write something today.

    Ok,

    I have been handwriting for 60 years and also taught calligraphy in the 80s, collect books with special bindings, especially quarter bound and know my way around a quality piece of furniture.

    I feel that I should probably not have used a meme that I thought was humorous as the opening shot to this thread but don't you think it is a very odd situation that anyone would want to come on to a pen forum and produce detailed and researched information on the cause and effect of the virus.

    With all due respect to FPG there are a thousand places that are better suited to an enquiring mind on the virus, much better placed than a pen forum and then, these people having made that decision, to be so aggressive in the defence of their views to the point where others who have been the lifeblood of FPG are saying 'we no longer have patience to deal with you, day in, day out'.

    Therefore I regret the casual approach in which I try not to take such pompous people too seriously and should just have said here is your new home for your contentious posts, left out any half-amusing pics and allow pople to get on with their fighting and foul language.
    Last edited by Johnny_S; April 18th, 2020 at 10:30 AM.

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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Dear John-

    Post without regret.

    I appreciate your attempt at directing traffic, but can you invite people into a home if you don't live there?

    Wish my scrawl had met your teaching: my Palmer Handwriting medals were bought on eBay.

    Be well.

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    Senior Member ethernautrix's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny_S View Post
    You have said that in a tactfull and diplomatic manner that I could not have managed, in particular the sentence 'please remember that how you present your argument can help you or hinder you in this goal.'

    The most erudite person will have an audience of deaf ears when they start to shout.
    I save my hair-trigger yelling for face-to-face arguments, hahaha. That way all of my non-verbal cues are supposedly OBVIOUS, hahaha, and when they're not, my apologies are immediate.

    It's taken years of practice.
    _____________
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    Senior Member ethernautrix's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by TSherbs View Post
    Animal control just reported in my state that road kill is down.

    So good news then!
    _____________
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Here are the latest numbers on cases and on deaths in the US. The data can be broken down by state. Cases might have flattened, but there is no sign that the virus is falling away.

    In New York, it has seemed as if people are reluctant to call an ambulance because it would take them to a hospital that is jammed with COVID-19 patients. That might be improving as the state government has expanded hospitals by, for instance, converting state university dormitories. Cases might have peaked below the total number of hospital beds in the state.

    Otherwise, I can't find numbers for deaths caused by other diseases. NYT

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...ge%2Fstory-ans

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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny_S View Post
    welcome J_S......Enjoy your time here......

    Fred
    Close your eyes and tap your heels together three times. And think to yourself..
    there's no place like home..........Glinda the good said long ago.......

    Whilst I enjoy a White Manhattan:
    Monnshine 2 1/2 onnces
    Dry Vermount 3/4 ounce Optional Dash of bitters

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    FP Enthusiast Emeritus mhosea's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by ethernautrix View Post
    I do have a perhaps contentious question, though. Is anyone tracking the data on death rates? I've seen posts on FB about numbers of deaths by other causes than COVID-19 ["C19"] to put C19 deaths in perspective. (Clumsy attempts, usually.) But have the death rates from non-C19 causes been "stable" (that is, as expected given past numbers)? Or have they changed significantly? (Implying, have they gone down, because those deaths are now being attributed to C19?)
    I believe the US CDC compiles a report every year, and the delay is considerable. The report on 2018 is out. If it's possible to get more up-to-date data about that sort of thing, I don't know where it could be found. Perhaps some states compile monthly reports? I do not know.

    Per CDC guidelines, it is likely that probable COVID-19 deaths in supervised settings are being reported as such. Some causes of death in medically supervised settings, sepsis, for example, would then tend to be replaced by COVID-19 when infection is probable, even though virtually any infection (e.g. an untreated UTI) could have led to the same outcome in short order. Consequently, I would expect to see sepsis deaths reduced from what they would otherwise have been. That's just a "for example". Social distancing and reduction of travel will probably end up changing the accident statistics quite a bit.
    Last edited by mhosea; April 19th, 2020 at 09:49 PM.
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    There is one UK city where Lockdown is largely ignored by the under 30s.

    This city has a population where three generation occupancy of a house is common.

    Despite these factors the deaths in hospital figure is low compared to the population count.

    The reason is that the deathis outside hospital is substantial, the covid 19 sufferers are reluctant to go to hospital because they have been told that if they are elderly that they will be put to sleep in order that their bed can be given to a younger person. Also they are encourage to stay at home, and die at home. The reason is that there is a second rumour that if they die in hospital the family will not be told and that the body will be
    cremated with others and not in accordance with their faith.

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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by ethernautrix View Post

    I do have a perhaps contentious question, though. Is anyone tracking the data on death rates? I've seen posts on FB about numbers of deaths by other causes than COVID-19 ["C19"] to put C19 deaths in perspective. (Clumsy attempts, usually.) But have the death rates from non-C19 causes been "stable" (that is, as expected given past numbers)? Or have they changed significantly? (Implying, have they gone down, because those deaths are now being attributed to C19?)

    And what are those implications?
    I can’t vouch for the accuracy, but this site seems credible. You can sort by country, etc...

    As for the implications, a bunch that are mostly conflicting right now. I don’t know if we have enough information to sort it out. The societal ones will be the most interesting. It seems that people have had enough of “lockdowns”, and want (or need) to get back to work. I don’t doubt there will be a second “curve” once we start getting out and about, or next year, or the next. The Spanish Flu ran for 3 years, for example. This thing is with us now, like influenza or any other contagious virus.

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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    My best friend, an American in Denmark (practically Danish by now, with the Danish wife and kids and job and house and citizenship), is a data head, and he posted in FB some relevant information. I'm going to ask for his permission to copy his post over here.

    Thanks to all who are replying.

    I also have questions about the potential for mandatory phone apps and a China-style surveillance system (not just faciail recognition, which the face masks undermine, but posture and gait recognition) -- I mean, is anyone else concerned about this trend?
    _____________
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    I think that the Chinese system is based, at least in part, on an ID card system which stores information on many different things about you including your health records. You cannot buy a phone without a connection between the phone and your ID.

    This is third hand, no personal information but I understand that the chinese authorities can have access to information wherever you are and who is standing next to you. They could for example tell you by text that a person near to you on the bus has tested positive. Logically I guess that if a crime was to occur the authorities would know by phone records who was near to the scene at the time. I assume that the criminal would have the sense not to carry the phone when he is on a job.

    A mandatory app for surveillance, I am not sure how that would be enforced. Especially when there are many of us who like the freedom of leaving their phones at home.

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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    Quote Originally Posted by ethernautrix View Post
    My best friend, an American in Denmark (practically Danish by now, with the Danish wife and kids and job and house and citizenship), is a data head, and he posted in FB some relevant information. I'm going to ask for his permission to copy his post over here.

    Thanks to all who are replying.

    I also have questions about the potential for mandatory phone apps and a China-style surveillance system (not just faciail recognition, which the face masks undermine, but posture and gait recognition) -- I mean, is anyone else concerned about this trend?
    That's curious, and China is a specific environment that has implemented Orwell's "1984" about as well as anyone. In the "western" world, I think it depends on the society. The U.K. is very surveillance oriented, for example; and seem relatively accepting of that. Germans kind of have it, mainly for traffic, but they seem to sit somewhere between the U.K. and the U.S. abundance of private surveillance that law enforcement can access with permission or warrant. It would be an interesting contrast between Poland or other former Soviet satellites, who lived for decades with secret police, "informants", and other surveillance. How accepting would they be? I spent 6 months in Złocieniec, and other than the discovery that they like to put ketchup on their pizza I remain relatively ignorant of the people.

    To address "implications" further (although I'm not sure what you had in mind), here's an interesting article about post-lockdown life, and Here's one about the negative impact on drug cartels. There will be a lot of things we discover, that we had no idea would be the case.

    --edit--

    A portion of the text from the first link.

    Quote Originally Posted by Scott Atlas, M.D. writing an opinion for "The Hill"
    With a world-wide sense of relief, progress continues in containing the COVID-19 pandemic. Projections have been revised downward for virtually every major negative consequence of the disease. Few doubt that the unprecedented isolation policies and near-total economic lockdowns adopted by most countries had a significant impact on reducing deaths from the virus. And aside from New York, where almost half of the entire country’s deaths and cases have occurred, the vast majority of American hospitals were not overwhelmed beyond capacity. All of this is terrific news.

    But we will now pay a big price. Our policy of total isolation involved trade-offs and left a significant problem by endangering the resumption of normal activity.

    One important health care trade-off that must be acknowledged is that we will have lost lives, because vital health care for millions of Americans was deferred or skipped to accommodate potential COVID-19 patients and for fear of spreading the disease. Over two-dozen states and many hospitals stopped “non-essential” procedures and surgery. That included delayed or missed diagnoses — cancer screening, biopsies of now undiscovered tumors and potentially deadly brain disorders like aneurysms and arteriovenous malformations. Treatments for known serious illnesses were also missed. In some centers, 80 percent of brain surgery cases were skipped. Acute stroke and heart attack patients missed their only chance for treatment, some dying and many now facing permanent disability. Cancer patients deferred chemotherapy. Whether right or not, policy decisions had consequences that should not be ignored.

    But a bigger price might now be paid from choosing extreme isolation. In the absence of immunization, society needs circulation of the virus, assuming high-risk people can be isolated. Infection itself allows people to generate an immune response — natural antibodies. Given the estimated contagiousness of COVID-19, about 60 percent of people in the community need to have antibodies to stop the spread by “herd immunity.” Remember, medical care is not necessary for the vast majority of people who are infected. We also infer from testing in Iceland and Vo, Italy, that half of infected people are asymptomatic. That has been misleadingly portrayed as a problem requiring mass isolation; those infected people are an important vehicle for establishing immunity by transmitting the virus to the low-risk group. Preliminary testing in Germany shows that perhaps 15 percent of people are immune; no doubt this varies greatly by region. It is very possible that whole-population isolation prevented natural herd immunity from developing.

    We now need to reenter normal life. Yet, instead of having a population protected by a naturally developed immunity, we are faced with a perilous decision — how to prevent a second wave when people are free to mingle. We should not wait for vaccines. America’s amazing private sector health care innovators are working 24/7 inventing nearly half of the world’s 100-plus potential vaccines. But these will take many months to be widely available. Moreover, vaccines might have limited effectiveness; for influenza, a vaccine is only 40 to 60 percent effective, according to the CDC.

    Continuing full-population isolation and waiting for a vaccine would be doubling down and yielding to panic. Instead, we could institute the focused strategy that some proposed in the first place — aggressively protecting the vulnerable, strictly self-isolating the mildly sick and, with testing, opening most workplaces and small businesses except very large group activities like concerts and sporting events. This would allow enough socializing for the essential immunity to gradually develop among those with minimal risk of serious consequences, while still saving lives and limiting the massive harms of continued total isolation...
    Last edited by dneal; April 20th, 2020 at 07:34 AM.

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    FP Enthusiast Emeritus mhosea's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post your Contentious Virus Posts Here

    I never understood the justification for putting off all elective procedures. I’m not sure yet that self isolation was a mistake, but as the initial projections for hospital utilization apart fro NYC have not materialized, it sure looks like it was a mistake to prepare hospitals nationwide for floods of COVID-19 patients. It is laughable to try to justify it by saying that isolation worked. In that case, it should have been an either-or measure, a contingency to initiate when threshold levels of capacity utilization were exceeded. At the very least, hospitals should be able to resume normal activity.

    Personally, I doubt the US will tolerate a second “lockdown”.
    Last edited by mhosea; April 20th, 2020 at 10:52 AM.
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