Sudden skyrocketing prices on ebay auctions

[Seattleite]

I said "vintage pens new to the market." What I mean by this is material that comes from the wild. Over the last four decades, old pens have steadily been moved from the back of some old lady's desk drawer, to the auction block, to a collector... never to return to such obscurity. It was really, only a moment in time between when fountain pens fell out of general use, to when they were "discovered" as a collectable. I think that we are in a place now where, possibly, most old pens are in the hands of collectors or dealers. I do not see as many flowing into the market from the dark corners. Just an opinion based on my 30+ years of casually looking around. Remember, this is a new hobby that was truly driven by the old "one man's junk is another man's treasure", early on.

I do think that there are fewer listings for vintage pens on the 'Bay, as that supply stream slows. This is the stuff that I hunt, so I notice it, and I think that it has an influence on price. Someday, most vintage pens will come from a collector, and an equilibrium will be established much like, say, ancient coins, or 19th century postage stamps, where several cycles of dealer/collector have occurred.

I remember when paying more than 10 dollars for a 51 was too much, because the next junk shop would probably have some I could wheel and deal down to 5. Now I doubt that they would have any at all. Where it was once pens per outing, now it is outings per pen, to the point where I don't much bother. Enter the 'Bay!

Bob

[Jon Szanto]

I said "vintage pens new to the market." What I mean by this is material that comes from the wild. Over the last four decades, old pens have steadily been moved from the back of some old lady's desk drawer, to the auction block, to a collector... never to return to such obscurity. It was really, only a moment in time between when fountain pens fell out of general use, to when they were "discovered" as a collectable. I think that we are in a place now where, possibly, most old pens are in the hands of collectors or dealers. I do not see as many flowing into the market from the dark corners. Just an opinion based on my 30+ years of casually looking around. Remember, this is a new hobby that was truly driven by the old "one man's junk is another man's treasure", early on.

I do think that there are fewer listings for vintage pens on the 'Bay, as that supply stream slows. This is the stuff that I hunt, so I notice it, and I think that it has an influence on price. Someday, most vintage pens will come from a collector, and an equilibrium will be established much like, say, ancient coins, or 19th century postage stamps, where several cycles of dealer/collector have occurred.

I remember when paying more than 10 dollars for a 51 was too much, because the next junk shop would probably have some I could wheel and deal down to 5. Now I doubt that they would have any at all. Where it was once pens per outing, now it is outings per pen, to the point where I don't much bother. Enter the 'Bay!

Bob

Quoted in entirety because this is an enmously important point. We are reaching a new era in this particular market and that is based on the actual timeline of fountain pen use and manufacture... the history.

[TFarnon]

I've noticed that has been the case on a few of the things I bid on. That's why I do my homework, decide what I'm willing to pay, and will not exceed that amount. If someone wants to bid on their own stuff and pay the fees, that's their problem. It doesn't alter what I'm willing to pay. But what I've seen most recently are what appear to be "real" bidders who are willing to pay double or triple the current retail price for things. By retail price for vintage pens, I mean a rough average of what those pens' prices are at places like Peyton Street Pens, Gopens.com and Vintagepens.com. I figure those are probably sellers in the higher range as far as prices go, but by no means the highest.

[TFarnon]

That's kind of my take on it. Usually, it just means someone wants a given item more than I do. There have been a few occasions where I suspect that the auction was being manipulated, but my protection against that is to mentally set a price and not exceed that price when I bid. I haven't been disappointed in anything I've purchased through Ebay. Some of my purchases were much better than expected. At worst, they were as expected, but those worsts are all pens I knew would require extensive restoration, and that I purchased for very little money, barely more than postage. Those "worst" pens will keep me from destroying intact pens when my take-it-apart impulses strike. I can happily go at a five dollar pen and if I end of damaging it more, I may still learn something.

[grainweevil]

Where it was once pens per outing, now it is outings per pen, to the point where I don't much bother. Enter the 'Bay!

While I don't disagree with the rest of your post, Bob, I think the 'Bay entering has had an effect on what can be found in the wild all by itself. I can't speak for pens per se but certainly in the old tool world it was noticeable that people just weren't bothering to schlep stuff off to the car boot/flea market) and get a quid/buck or two any more, when they could sit at home in comfort and get twice as much, or more, on eBay. And these were not easy things to post/mail. I would be very surprised if readily mailable items such as pens weren't effected similarly.

[eachan]

It's hard to quantify the last part, Bob. Just going by gut feeling it doesn't look to me that there is a diminished supply of pens out there, but it's almost impossible to really tell. I notice certain sellers seem to have more or less the same stock levels of certain pens, like the P51 for example. It's probably not possible to get statistical figures from eBay either. Perhaps the upward creep of prices is just part of the normal pattern, but more people are noticing it because they have time to notice it. I dunno.

I don't know whether it applies to all vintage pens. I concentrate on Mabie Todd these days and there are certain types that I used to buy that I never see now. Among Conway Stewarts, the early Duros and 20s/30s casein Dinkies are now very uncommon indeed. It was not always so. There was a limited amount to begin with, I suppose, and they've been snapped up.

[eachan]

Where it was once pens per outing, now it is outings per pen, to the point where I don't much bother. Enter the 'Bay!

While I don't disagree with the rest of your post, Bob, I think the 'Bay entering has had an effect on what can be found in the wild all by itself. I can't speak for pens per se but certainly in the old tool world it was noticeable that people just weren't bothering to schlep stuff off to the car boot/flea market) and get a quid/buck or two any more, when they could sit at home in comfort and get twice as much, or more, on eBay. And these were not easy things to post/mail. I would be very surprised if readily mailable items such as pens weren't effected similarly.

If eBay hadn't provided a worldwide market for what we now call "collectables" most old fountain pens would have had their gold nibs harvested and the rest sent to landfill. Quite a bit of that still goes on anyway but at least eBay provides an easy outlet that people know about and can access without too much trouble.

[Seattleite]

Where it was once pens per outing, now it is outings per pen, to the point where I don't much bother. Enter the 'Bay!

While I don't disagree with the rest of your post, Bob, I think the 'Bay entering has had an effect on what can be found in the wild all by itself. I can't speak for pens per se but certainly in the old tool world it was noticeable that people just weren't bothering to schlep stuff off to the car boot/flea market) and get a quid/buck or two any more, when they could sit at home in comfort and get twice as much, or more, on eBay. And these were not easy things to post/mail. I would be very surprised if readily mailable items such as pens weren't effected similarly.

I think that you are correct on this. I would say that supplies in the wild decreased, in general, and how they got to market changed. Where I am, the Junk shop died a while back, due to high real estate value combined with difficulty in finding good merchandise. People used to take there stuff to the Junk shop to sell for a few bucks, now the individual can be in business even if he only has one item to sell. The junk dealer is no longer an essential part of the sequence, which I do miss. It was fun to stop by to see what had "walked in". All of the venues... Antique shows, Antique malls and shops, Consignment shops and Flea Markets, have all taken a hit, I suspect.

I don't know where a guy can get a Beech molding plane in this city, these days. There used to be some at the weekend "Swap Meet," down at the Drive in Movie lot.

Bob

[AzJon]

It's hard to quantify the last part, Bob. Just going by gut feeling it doesn't look to me that there is a diminished supply of pens out there, but it's almost impossible to really tell. I notice certain sellers seem to have more or less the same stock levels of certain pens, like the P51 for example. It's probably not possible to get statistical figures from eBay either. Perhaps the upward creep of prices is just part of the normal pattern, but more people are noticing it because they have time to notice it. I dunno.

I'm not sure the total numbers have dipped either, but I see fewer listings from some junk-yard queen thinking she's getting away with murder for selling a pen for $25.

About 2-3 years ago, I dug in a watched eBay obsessively. I learned a lot about different pens and their price points on eBay. I would take prices there and compare them across multiple sellers, both on forums and legitimate businesses (always funny to see a pen I spotted on eBay pop up with a seller a few weeks down the line), and get an idea of what the pen was worth. That price hasn't changed all that much. A Parker 51 still sells for about the same price, depending on condition, that it did a year ago. However, even taking a quick check right now, the majority of pictures of pens out there are done with light boxes, and are pretty clear. There isn't some poorly lit hand holding a pen that you have to ID based on some physical attributes that's priced low.

I used to love those kinds of finds. The thrill of seeing if you got lucky or it was a bust. If you knew what you were looking for or at, the odds of the bust were a lot lower. I scored some sweet pens in that time. Edit: that's how I scored a mint condition 400NN for under $100. A bit of knowledge, a bit of luck, and a bit of a gamble.

As an example of eBay insanity, when I first started looking around, an old Conklin Glider sold for about $30-$40, pending condition on eBay. Now, I don't think I've seen one for less than $60 in a long time. Some of them in truly dire condition.

[Chuck Naill]

Also, there are buyer generations. Later your prized possessions may not be know to subsequent generations, and thus sold unsuspectingly.

[Kaputnik]

I've noticed that has been the case on a few of the things I bid on. That's why I do my homework, decide what I'm willing to pay, and will not exceed that amount. If someone wants to bid on their own stuff and pay the fees, that's their problem. It doesn't alter what I'm willing to pay. But what I've seen most recently are what appear to be "real" bidders who are willing to pay double or triple the current retail price for things. By retail price for vintage pens, I mean a rough average of what those pens' prices are at places like Peyton Street Pens, Gopens.com and Vintagepens.com. I figure those are probably sellers in the higher range as far as prices go, but by no means the highest.

These are reasons why I always "snipe", unless, of course, it's a buy it now item. Or at least, I used to. Haven't bought anything from eBay in an auction for a while. [EDIT: Actually, I did buy three Eagle 314 draughting pencils in an auction 3 months ago. I sniped, and was the only bidder, so I paid less than my maximum.]

By the way, I've seen people claim that sniping is somehow rude, but nobody has ever been able to give me a convincing explanation as to why. I think they're confusing it with jostling one's way to the head of the line, but of course it's not the same thing at all. I can put in a snipe with 2 seconds left and see it topped immediately as the current high bidder's bid is automatically increased above mine. But I've avoided setting my bid up as a target for either shill bidders, or legitimate bidders with a poor bidding strategy. And it may increase my chances of getting an item for below the maximum that I'm willing to pay.

I am watching a non-pen related item, an older style of plastic tournament chess set that is now considered a bit of a classic. Not to buy it, I already have one that I bought in the 1970s, but I'd heard that they're in some demand, and was curious what they'd go for. With 12 hours left, there are 25 bids, from only 4 users. One bidder made 13 bids in a row, apparently to reveal what the previous high bid was. That bidder is not the current leader. Certainly makes me suspect shill bidding, but it could just be someone with poor impulse control, or a defective understanding of how automatic bidding works on eBay.

[eachan]

It depends how you work, even how you think about making pen purchases on eBay. Sniping is of no benefit to me and I have better things to do than sit and wait for auctions to complete. Among the pens I am interested in, I know what they are worth to me. I make a single bid at that price and if I get it that's good. If I don't that's fine too. There will always be another along and if there isn't I can spend my money on a different pen. I'm not a collector; I'm not looking to complete a set or acquire something extremely rare and costly. I do buy expensive pens from time time, on the same basis. I know what it will be worth to my clients and I calculate what to spend appropriately. One bid, either get the pen or forget about it and move on.

[Kaputnik]

...Sniping is of no benefit to me and I have better things to do than sit and wait for auctions to complete...

I snipe using Gixen. It puts the bid in for me with seconds left. No need to sit and wait. But I can see what happened later.

It could fail to go through, and some people have security concerns about sniping services, but this one appears to be safe enough.

[Detman101]

One bid, either get the pen or forget about it and move on.

That's the energy I need...

[Empty_of_Clouds]

Another thing, as I understand it, if the winning bidder requests a retraction of their bid, and this gets granted by the seller, then the second-highest bidder becomes the winner. So it is possible for shady bidders to drag the sale price up, pressuring the unwary into overbidding.

That said, if your look at the auction history you can check out the history of individual bidders, and this will show how many times they have made retractions over the last 12 months.

[eachan]

...Sniping is of no benefit to me and I have better things to do than sit and wait for auctions to complete...

I snipe using Gixen. It puts the bid in for me with seconds left. No need to sit and wait. But I can see what happened later.

It could fail to go through, and some people have security concerns about sniping services, but this one appears to be safe enough.

Why do you think sniping is a benefit?

[Empty_of_Clouds]

The benefit of sniping is that it prevents nibbling.

Here's a short article about it from Cornell University: LINKY

[Jon Szanto]

Why do you think sniping is a benefit?

One thing is that it can cut down on "emotional bidding".

If you put in a max bid on an item, eBay will only put in the next bid increment, and your max won't necessarily be bid at that moment. However, the number has just ticked upward - Movement! - and other interested parties might start bidding, and this might be early in the auction. The upward bidding war starts as soon as people start making visable bids.

With a sniping program, I do the same thing: decide how much I want to pay. However, the program doesn't bid that amount until some predetermined time (usually a few seconds before close of bidding). Of course, if someone has a higher max amount than I, they will win - rightfully so, and no different from any other auction. However, if the item has "flown under the radar" and the amount has stayed relatively low until the end of auction, the chances my maximum will win is likely increased. The bid hitting late in the process prevents a last minute bidding war with people becoming emotionally involved with rapidly escalating 'current price' scenarios.

Nothing is underhanded, and you aren't spending any more (but potentially less) for an item you are interested in. You just aren't showing your hand early, either by how much you wish to spend, or by even indicating any activity or interest at all.

On top of that is the exact same "set it and forget it" aspect - I don't happen to always be around a computer or device at the time of an auction close and this makes certain I don't miss out on something I am interested in.

[eachan]

It seems to me that if you snipe the price you pay is determined by the previous bidder. I used to use sniping software some years ago when eBay used to show your username. If you were a well-known buyer and bid on a pen it attracted attention by those who might have ignored it otherwise, and thereby pushed the price up. Sniping introduced your name at the last second and avoided that problem. After much complaining by bidders eBay made the process anonymous.

Nibbling is only a concern if you haven't made up your mind what price you want to pay. Nibbling isn't that common.

[eachan]

Why do you think sniping is a benefit?

One thing is that it can cut down on "emotional bidding".

If you put in a max bid on an item, eBay will only put in the next bid increment, and your max won't necessarily be bid at that moment. However, the number has just ticked upward - Movement! - and other interested parties might start bidding, and this might be early in the auction. The upward bidding war starts as soon as people start making visable bids.

With a sniping program, I do the same thing: decide how much I want to pay. However, the program doesn't bid that amount until some predetermined time (usually a few seconds before close of bidding). Of course, if someone has a higher max amount than I, they will win - rightfully so, and no different from any other auction. However, if the item has "flown under the radar" and the amount has stayed relatively low until the end of auction, the chances my maximum will win is likely increased. The bid hitting late in the process prevents a last minute bidding war with people becoming emotionally involved with rapidly escalating 'current price' scenarios.

Nothing is underhanded, and you aren't spending any more (but potentially less) for an item you are interested in. You just aren't showing your hand early, either by how much you wish to spend, or by even indicating any activity or interest at all.

On top of that is the exact same "set it and forget it" aspect - I don't happen to always be around a computer or device at the time of an auction close and this makes certain I don't miss out on something I am interested in.

I agree that it may work in your favour if you set an exact price you are prepared to pay. Many people who use sniping software set a range which doesn't really control your buying. I don't think it's underhanded and I don't understand those who believe it is.