The new and improved COVID catch-all thread.

[dneal]

I readily admit to being just as big of a jackass as anyone on this board. I apologize. I incorrectly believed through consistent escalation, I could deescalate. A form of chicken, so to speak. I say chicken. Again, my apologies.

So, I thought we might go ahead and try something less caustic. An experiment, if you will; to bring more posters into this oftentimes hostile place and see if we can make it less so.

I am genuinely curious about individual's personal choices regarding vaccination, if we can respectfully share and not introduce the judgement and vitriol. Maybe a baby-step to civility.

I thought about the vaccine long and hard, and my risk-reward calculus (to me and the public) did not require it. The virus struck at the same time I retired. Reducing contact reduces transmission. My normal retirement lifestyle easily accommodates that, and now is messing around a half a dozen acres with a tractor and a chainsaw. Every day is a closet full of "perfect Saturdays" to choose from. Is that a day enjoying the sunshine and mowing a couple of those acres and sipping a few ice cold beers? Smoking a brisket? Is it lounging around, Big Lebowski style, with a White Russian in hand? Whatever it is, I can usually do it. My life is about as close to perfect as it gets. Content is an understatement.

I'm a healthy 50-something. The odds of COVID killing me (and honestly, I believe I had it last year) are astronomically small. I run exponentially greater risk from the tractor and chainsaw, or driving up to the gas station for no-contact with anyone fuel. My immediate family comes and goes, I do drive down to my brother's house (he's retired too, about 15 minutes away) on occasion. I keep masks on hand. When places I go ask to wear one, I do. I generally play the game. The risk I pose or am exposed to is miniscule.

I'm honestly tired of being stuck with "experimental" or "emergency" stuff too. I've had all the standard stuff you get, to include for going overseas. I've had the Anthrax series. I just found a most recent shot record as I was weeding through old paperwork, and apparently was vaccinated for H1N1 too. I had Lyme disease 30-some years ago. The thought of adding one more thing that could lie lurking, and complicating closer to end of life quality and care is an important consideration to me.

My wife is the one who does the social things and runs to town to get groceries, etc... She thought long and hard and chose to get vaccinated, and her risk reward calculus was different. Her concerns are documented. Variations of thrombosis in particular, but she can list a whole bunch that are important to her. She knows her medical history as well as anyone, and it's her body. Ultimately, like in my case too, life. Her view was that her frequency of contact with random people warranted it, for her benefit and theirs. It also mitigates risk in my risk-reward calculus.

I agree with her calculus, and she agrees with mine - even though we didn't get the same answer - because we're reasonable people.

Other's thoughts would be appreciated.

[kazoolaw]

This story seems like a tasty blend of Covid, Ivermectin, and media trustworthiness.

Rolling Stone published an article saying that emergency rooms in Oklahoma were overcrowded with Ivermectin overdose patients, preventing other patients including gunshot victims from receiving treatment.

Apparently it's completely made up. You can find many of the posts here
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...855753220.html
And here
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...coup-shang-chi
Note: I make no claim for either of these links but that they supply a number of links on the topic.

Assuming the original RS story is false, why publish it at all?

[Chuck Naill]

Not trying to be difficult, but if want to apologize, just include yourself. Take full responsibility for your actions. Your OP was more like, “I’m an ass like others”.

[dneal]

Not trying to be difficult, but if want to apologize, just include yourself. Take full responsibility for your actions. Your OP was more like, “I’m an ass like others”.

People can make their own decisions on who is what. I don’t apologize for others. They can do that if they want.

[Chuck Naill]

Not trying to be difficult, but if want to apologize, just include yourself. Take full responsibility for your actions. Your OP was more like, “I’m an ass like others”.

People can make their own decisions on who is what. I don’t apologize for others. They can do that if they want.

Didn’t ask you to apologize for others. Own your own problems . No need to make it sound like others are the same as you .

[TFarnon]

Based on the demographics of the patients I "see" who have severe COVID symptoms, and the extreme transmissibility of the delta strain, I say get the shot. There is no other risk calculus. Seriously. You don't know who is carrying this plague, and who will inadvertently infect you. By "seeing" these patients, I mean scanning down the ER board to see what kind of a testing load I might have over the next hour, and what kind of results and tests to watch for. The additional information I get as I do this is age and sex. You are in a prime demographic for severe COVID. Your current state of health reduces your risk of being on a ventilator, but that's not a risk I would be willing to take. And after combing through one patient's need to determine that patient's need for transfusion, if I hadn't already had the vaccine, I would have knocked people down to get the shot. I didn't want to look at or find horrifying information, but I found it only looking for the potential for more transfusions. In short, your risk is higher than you think it is. It isn't astronomically high, but still high enough to make the shot a prudent choice.

And after last night's shift at work, in a hospital already overloaded because it's September, with nurses now spread between 3 ICU patients when they should only have one, and a testing load that shot through the roof, anything anyone can do to stay out of the hospital right now is a good thing. That even means no ATV riding, no skateboarding, no "Here, hold mah beer" antics, no hunting, no distracted driving, reduced driving whenever possible, no getting on the roof to fix something, no getting falling-down drunk, no swallowing pencils, no cooking hash butter, no gatherings with small children, no going maskless in any public area inside or outside, no juggling chainsaws and anything else that carries a substantial risk of illness or injury. And be careful on stairs! My next shift starts Monday at noon, and I can only hope that I'm physically and mentally sufficiently recovered to deal with it.

You may think that your choices only affect you, but if something happens to you requiring medical attention, you have now put an even greater burden on the providers who will be involved in your care. Get the shot.

[TFarnon]

I'm behind the scenes in the lab, in another state. Ivermectin or no ivermectin, COVID or no COVID, it doesn't matter right now. It's September, which means hospitals the world over are slammed with a heavy patient load. I don't know why September, but that's the way it is and has been for years, perhaps decades. There isn't a question of who gets treated first--the Ivermectin overdose, the esophageal varices due to alcoholic cirrhosis, the shattered femurs from a head-on car crash or the gunshot wound. Which STAT is the most STAT? I sure as hell don't have time to worry about that. At this point, it's first-come, first-served in a frantic rush to get it all done in something resembling a timely fashion.

[Pendragon]

You may think that your choices only affect you, but if something happens to you requiring medical attention, you have now put an even greater burden on the providers who will be involved in your care. Get the shot.

I know a number of people who chose not to get vaccinated. If others didn't push them so hard to get it, these folks likely would have been vaxxed a long time ago. After hearing about all the Delta breakthrough cases and speculation that a third shot might be needed, I wish I had not got the vaccine. It appears that it was a waste of time.

If the vaccines work so well, then why do vaccinated people still have to wear masks? If the vaccines don't work, then why get them in the first place? Those aren't rhetorical questions, by the way.

[dneal]

Not trying to be difficult, but if want to apologize, just include yourself. Take full responsibility for your actions. Your OP was more like, “I’m an ass like others”.

People can make their own decisions on who is what. I don’t apologize for others. They can do that if they want.

Didn’t ask you to apologize for others. Own your own problems . No need to make it sound like others are the same as you .

Chuck, I appreciate your efforts to not be difficult. I suspect we will reach no agreement on this side issue. Perhaps it would be more beneficial to other members of the forum if you tailored your remarks more closely to the topic?

[dneal]

Based on the demographics of the patients I "see" who have severe COVID symptoms, and the extreme transmissibility of the delta strain, I say get the shot. There is no other risk calculus. Seriously. You don't know who is carrying this plague, and who will inadvertently infect you. By "seeing" these patients, I mean scanning down the ER board to see what kind of a testing load I might have over the next hour, and what kind of results and tests to watch for. The additional information I get as I do this is age and sex. You are in a prime demographic for severe COVID. Your current state of health reduces your risk of being on a ventilator, but that's not a risk I would be willing to take. And after combing through one patient's need to determine that patient's need for transfusion, if I hadn't already had the vaccine, I would have knocked people down to get the shot. I didn't want to look at or find horrifying information, but I found it only looking for the potential for more transfusions. In short, your risk is higher than you think it is. It isn't astronomically high, but still high enough to make the shot a prudent choice.

And after last night's shift at work, in a hospital already overloaded because it's September, with nurses now spread between 3 ICU patients when they should only have one, and a testing load that shot through the roof, anything anyone can do to stay out of the hospital right now is a good thing. That even means no ATV riding, no skateboarding, no "Here, hold mah beer" antics, no hunting, no distracted driving, reduced driving whenever possible, no getting on the roof to fix something, no getting falling-down drunk, no swallowing pencils, no cooking hash butter, no gatherings with small children, no going maskless in any public area inside or outside, no juggling chainsaws and anything else that carries a substantial risk of illness or injury. And be careful on stairs! My next shift starts Monday at noon, and I can only hope that I'm physically and mentally sufficiently recovered to deal with it.

You may think that your choices only affect you, but if something happens to you requiring medical attention, you have now put an even greater burden on the providers who will be involved in your care. Get the shot.

While I appreciate your concern, and the insight into this curious September surge (I wonder if it aligns with "back to school" temporary societal changes... but who knows); I am not entirely clear on your decision process as to what you chose, but based on your other comments I assume it was to get vaccinated.

[Chuck Naill]

You may think that your choices only affect you, but if something happens to you requiring medical attention, you have now put an even greater burden on the providers who will be involved in your care. Get the shot.

I know a number of people who chose not to get vaccinated. If others didn't push them so hard to get it, these folks likely would have been vaxxed a long time ago. After hearing about all the Delta breakthrough cases and speculation that a third shot might be needed, I wish I had not got the vaccine. It appears that it was a waste of time.

If the vaccines work so well, then why do vaccinated people still have to wear masks? If the vaccines don't work, then why get them in the first place? Those aren't rhetorical questions, by the way.

The vaccines have been shown to work and now the Pfizer one has an FDA approval. Booster shots are common for other vaccines and flu shots are given annually.

The reason to continue to wear a mask is because vaccinated people can carry and transmit the virus to others and especially children who are not cleared to receive a vaccine at this time.

In my family we've had three out of nine people contract the COVID-19 virus, two before vaccines were available. Interestingly, no one else were infected and the virus was mild.

One family member by marriage sister contracted the virus and spent to hospitializations and continue to have symptoms after 9 months.

I was bitten by a tick and had symptoms from 2015-2017 with a flair up in 2019. Infection courses and severity are different for everyone. I don't want to take a chance.

[adhoc]

I'm a healthy 50-something. The odds of COVID killing me (and honestly, I believe I had it last year) are astronomically small.

The average age of hospitalization here is 55, down from 68 last year from original strain. You might not be as risk free as you think you are.

After hearing about all the Delta breakthrough cases and speculation that a third shot might be needed, I wish I had not got the vaccine.

The vaccines work very well in protecting you from a trip to the hospital. Nothing else. You will likely get infected anyway, but will get through it like it's common cold or a mild flu. Only 2 people in my country are currently in ICU and vaccinated - both severely immunocompromised.

[dneal]

I appreciate everyone's concern, and suggestions; but I've done my own analysis and made my own decision. I do not intend to debate it with anyone, and while you're free to type as you like; it seems to be a road to contentiousness that just spins out of control.

I'll do you the same courtesy and not critique your decision. How about that?

[dneal]

adhoc's comment prompted me to review the CDC's current hospitalization data HERE

There are options for various specificity on the page. While certain age brackets get lumped in together (mine 50-64), which creates a little more ambiguity; most are broken out or have an option to do that, like with 65+. Anyway, here's a screenshot of the chart. The most recent spike looks to have occurred at the week ending 21 August. The lines are (top to bottom, in all date ranges).

85+: 37 per 100k
75-84: 29.2 per 100k
65-74: 19.3 per 100k
50-64: 16.2 per 100k

Screen Shot 2021-09-06 at 10.39.31 AM.png

--edit--

I found another CDC page with deaths per 100k. For my age group, the height of the pandemic had a rate of 4.78 per 100k. The most recent spike was 1.41, the week after the hospitalization bump. Currently it is less than one per 100k.

[adhoc]

I just wanted to provide you with data that might provide you some value. Your decision is ultimately up to you and I fully respect that.

Your graph doesn't take into the account the age pyramid structure. You can't tell what the average age of hospitalization is based on that. Regardless, the rates are quite low, which I guess was your main point.

[dneal]

I do appreciate that, as a reminder to check and see what the current trends are, if nothing else.

Each line is an age range I selected as I refined the data I wanted to see. The lines correspond to the category and rates I listed - but yes it's too much data on one chart (you should have seen it with all ranges included...)

If you click the link, you can select the data as you like (age, cormorbidities and whatnot depending on the chart). The chart I linked will pop up a little window with date and data if you hover your cursor over it (on the CDC page, not here...)

--edit--

I just noticed I didn't address your "average age of hospitalization" point. I'll dig around a little further, but I would want to see how that average is counted. Two 10 year olds hospitalized and two 90 year olds hospitalized could be argued to have an average age of 50 for hospitalizations, but that is not particularly useful. I'm sure the scientists have a firm grasp on mean, mode, median, etc... I may give that a look. I have been bothered by the mathematically true but sensationalized "doubling" of cases, hospitalizations, deaths, etc... from the news. 2 deaths this week and 4 next week is an increase of 100%.

[adhoc]

I couldn't find any data in this regard for US, but I can't imagine it's radically different from us. NIJZ, our state institution for healthcare, publishes all data daily including raw values in Excel etc.

Second page, bottom graph, right most column shows age structure of hospitalized infected for past week. I didn't run the numbers, but a significant portion of the column is taken up by ages 45-65, so average of 55 seems reasonable somewhat.

https://www.nijz.si/sites/www.nijz.s..._29.8.2021.pdf

[Chuck Naill]

Years ago when parents were not vaccinating their children, a pediatrician suggested the parents keep their children isolated. This was convenient for home schooling families.

Not sure I’ve ever demanded vaccines, but I do think the unvaccinated bear some responsibility. At least isolate. The issue is that the unvaccinated also go without masks, and refuse to physically distance.

One problem has been virus denial which has led to not getting a vaccine or adopting other measures.

And, why make the experts villains? Infectious diseases can be a moving target. It’s not as simple as boiling water .

[dneal]

I couldn't find any data in this regard for US, but I can't imagine it's radically different from us. NIJZ, our state institution for healthcare, publishes all data daily including raw values in Excel etc.

Second page, bottom graph, right most column shows age structure of hospitalized infected for past week. I didn't run the numbers, but a significant portion of the column is taken up by ages 45-65, so average of 55 seems reasonable somewhat.

https://www.nijz.si/sites/www.nijz.s..._29.8.2021.pdf

I like your country's graphs better than mine. The by-country difference is something I expect to see studies on when this all settles down. There are a lot of variables to account for.

[dneal]

Years ago when parents were not vaccinating their children, a pediatrician suggested the parents keep their children isolated. This was convenient for home schooling families.

Not sure I’ve ever demanded vaccines, but I do think the unvaccinated bear some responsibility. At least isolate. The issue is that the unvaccinated also go without masks, and refuse to physically distance.

One problem has been virus denial which has led to not getting a vaccine or adopting other measures.

And, why make the experts villains? Infectious diseases can be a moving target. It’s not as simple as boiling water .

I'm not anti-vaccine. I don't think the experts are villains, either - and I missed it if anyone did. There are risks with all vaccines, although usually small. We now know that the spikes are cytotoxic, for example; and thrombosis is one of several issues one must consider before taking this vaccine. There is a lot we do not know about this virus and this vaccine. No one is an expert on the future. We can pick examples of the vaccine causing death, or COVID causing death. In both cases, it is possible. So what do we do with that information? Make as informed of a decision as each of us can... I'm comfortable with my assessment of risk to me and the public.