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Thread: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

  1. #361
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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip View Post
    That many Ukrainians are indistinguishable in ethnicity and language from Russians does undermine the genocide designation.

    Without lessening the invasion as a monstrous, vicious crime.
    The study defines "genocide" to mean a distinct nation, and not a race. Call it "extermination" of the Ukrainian people, if you like. Russia seems to intend, or to have intended, the extermination of the Ukrainian people. They are fighting the invasion that way.

    It is not just atrocities, but the systematic destruction of schools, hospitals, roads, railways, bridges, electric power lines. The bombings and especially the artillery bombardments are inaccurate, so they amount to saturation attacks. See Mariupol for example, or the steady fire on Karkhiv.

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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

    This is an interactive map demonstrating that the Russian goals have shrunk. I can't copy the pictures, but the Times allows non-subscribers to read a few articles per month.

    Russia’s Shrinking War
    The goals of Russia’s invasion keep getting smaller. But its depleted military is still failing to make major advances, and time is on Ukraine’s side.

    By Josh Holder, Marco Hernandez and Jon HuangMay 24, 2022

    After failing to topple Ukraine’s government in Kyiv, Russia redeployed troops for a far less ambitious goal: Seize the rest of the Donbas, beyond the area where Russia had already advanced a month ago.

    Russia’s military has overwhelming superiority in weapons, if not men — tanks, warplanes, helicopters and heavy artillery. But a month into the battle for the East, Russia has made only gradual progress along the Eastern front.

    And in a sign of strength, Ukrainian counterattacks have retaken ground outside Kharkiv, diverting Russian forces and threatening their supply lines.
    The rest is at:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...pgtype=Article

  3. #363
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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

    If Ukraine surrendered, would Russia murder everyone in the country and replace them with Russians? I don’t think so, and is why the genocide argument seems implausible.

    More likely is an approach to make the situation so intolerable that they surrender in order to obtain relief. History is rife with examples.
    "A truth does not mind being questioned. A lie does not like being challenged."

  4. #364
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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.


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  6. #365
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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

    Russia Is Fielding 50-Year-Old Tanks in Ukraine

    They get most of this right. Signals big force generation problems, ranging from losses to maintenance. I chuckled when it reported these tanks were "loaded on trains and arriving in Ukraine". Like I noted earlier, shutting Twitter and other social media down just meant we couldn't see them loaded and moved on that map app.

    They get the 4 man crew issue wrong. That's not a big deal, and typical (as is manual loading of the gun tube). The M1 has a 4 man crew and is manually loaded.

    These older tanks mean older weapons (AT-4, Carl Gustav, etc...), which are plentiful, can be sent to Ukraine for use to offset Javelins.

    Russia Is Fielding 50-Year-Old Tanks in Ukraine, Which Is ... Not a Great Strategy

    • The Russian army has begun fielding T-62 main battle tanks in Ukraine.
    • By modern standards, the tank is completely obsolete and will fare badly in Russia’s invasion.
    • Ironically, the larger crew means the T-62 will increase Russian personnel losses in the long run.


    The Russian Army has begun deployment of one of the oldest tanks in its stockpile, the T-62 main battle tank. The T-62, which the Soviet Union produced between 1962 and 1973, is poorly armored by modern standards, with little of the protection that modern vehicles offer. Relying on these tanks will only exacerbate Russia’s losses in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine—both in hardware and in human lives.

    In just over 100 days, the Russian Army has lost an estimated 15,000 personnel, killed in action. Russian equipment losses have been especially heavy, as well, with at least 761 tanks, 840 infantry fighting vehicles, 271 artillery pieces, 30 fixed-wing aircraft, and an entire guided-missile cruiser destroyed. Much of Russia’s war machine has proved hollow, with numerous cases of substandard or crudely-maintained equipment, poorly-trained soldiers, and overall lousy morale.

    Both in the field and in deep storage, the Russian Army has approximately 12,420 tanks, according to Global Firepower, a website that maintains rankings of global military strength. Russia has built comparatively few tanks since the end of the Cold War, relying on thousands of T-72 and T-80 main battle tanks that the Soviet Union produced between the late 1970s and 1991, when the USSR broke up. Decades old, Russia has renovated and upgraded these tanks into improved versions, including the T-72B1, T-72B3, and T-80BVM. Although enhanced, they still suffer from 50-year-old design decisions that make them more vulnerable to catastrophic destruction.

    On May 25, social media posts reported sightings of even older tanks—T-62Ms and T-62MVs—loaded on trains arriving in Ukraine. Users also spotted T-62-series tanks in the field on June 5, heading west in the direction of cities like Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih. That same day, footage showed the first reported losses of those tanks.

    The T-62 is a second-generation main battle tank. The Soviet Union produced it to replace the older T-55 tank; it first deployed the T-62 in large numbers with the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany in 1963. The T-62 was equipped with a U-5TS 115-millimeter main gun and a 7.62-millimeter PK-T machine gun mounted coaxially. The tank had 230-millimeter frontal-turret armor and 100-millimeter frontal-hull armor, making it heavily armored for its time. Unlike later tanks, a humans had to manually load the gun, giving it a total crew of four.

    In the early 1980s, baseline T-62s were upgraded into the T-62M and -MV standard. The tanks featured NII Stali BDD appliqué armor designed to boost the tank’s chances of survival on the battlefield, increasing frontal-turret protection from 230-millimeter to 450-millimeter against shaped-charge warheads used by anti-tank missiles. The tanks also received ballistic computers, laser rangefinders, and an improved gunner’s sight and gun stabilization systems. Tanks upgraded to the -MV standard received reactive armor consisting of explosive boxes meant to counteract the effects of a shaped-charge attack.

    Unfortunately, as impressive as this sounds, none of it is particularly useful in Ukraine. The 450-millimeter armor protection was an acceptable standard in 1982, but in 2022, many tanks feature 900-millimeter protection or more. Modern anti-tank weapons provided to Ukraine, particularly NLAW and Javelin, fire their warhead downward through a tank turret roof.

    The T-62 still has just 30 millimeters of turret-roof armor, as much as it did in 1965, leaving it critically vulnerable to modern weapons. T-62s sighted in Ukraine have grid cages installed on the turret roof. The cages, derisively nicknamed “cope cages,” are supposed to provide additional protection against shaped-charge attacks. Unfortunately, there are numerous examples of even newer tanks equipped with the cages destroyed on the battlefield, strongly suggesting they don’t work as intended.

    There are other problems with the T-62s. As we’ve seen with the rest of Russia’s vehicle fleet, many tanks and armored vehicles—even relatively new ones—have been poorly maintained and suffer from reliability problems in Ukraine. Any T-62 pressed into service is at least 40 years old, suffering from decades of neglect. Unlike newer tanks, the T-62 has a crew of four, increasing manpower demands on an already manpower-strapped force. And if the tank is destroyed, total destruction of the T-62 results in the loss of four tankers, not three.

    The T-62 tank is so old that the anti-tank weapons facing it were developed long after it was considered obsolete. There is no comparable tank like it left today in the West; it would be unethical to force soldiers to fight in a tank as obsolete as the T-62. Yet to all of this, there is a silver, morbid, lining: if deploying T-62s to Ukraine accelerates Russian army losses, it could hasten an end to the war.
    "A truth does not mind being questioned. A lie does not like being challenged."

  7. #366
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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

    And, today, just catching up with the Ukrainian advances in the Northeast, as an unbelievable thing happened:

    Moscow’s swift losses in Ukraine are prompting something new on Russian TV: a debate.

    As Russia suffered its most humiliating defeat since the initial stage of the war in Ukraine, cracks emerged in the official narrative as lawmakers and pundits on state television cast doubt on Moscow’s prospects.


    While some urged the Kremlin to start peace negotiations, others demanded that its forces double down. The divergence of views, even on tightly controlled state television networks, highlighted how Moscow’s narrative has quickly shifted from a conviction that it was only a matter of time before Russia subjugated Ukraine to a sense of alarm over the rapid progress of Kyiv’s forces. And it was a contrast from the muted response after Russia’s drive to take Kyiv failed in the spring.

    On Friday, as the Russian front line in northeastern Ukraine collapsed, Boris Nadezhdin, a Russian municipal lawmaker, told viewers of a political talk show on NTV, a state-owned television channel, what had once been unspeakable: Moscow cannot, under current conditions, win this war.

    Image
    President Vladimir V. Putin appeared on television at a bar in Moscow in February, before the invasion of Ukraine.
    President Vladimir V. Putin appeared on television at a bar in Moscow in February, before the invasion of Ukraine. Credit...Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times
    “We are now at the point when we have to understand that it’s absolutely impossible to defeat Ukraine using those resources and colonial war methods with which Russia is trying to fight,” said Mr. Nadezhdin, who serves as a municipal deputy in a town near Moscow. “The Russian army is fighting against a strong army that is fully supported by the most powerful countries in the economic and technological sense.”

    Mr. Nadezhdin suggested that negotiations for peace should begin — a suggestion vehemently refuted by others in the studio, who argued that Russia cannot give up its existential fight against NATO.

    “We have been dealt a very serious psychological blow,” said Aleksandr Kazakov, a member of the Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament. “We must destroy the infrastructure that is being used for military purposes.”

    Others questioned the main ideological pretext that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia used to launch the invasion — that Russians and Ukrainians constitute one nation.

    “We can’t expect their affection if we tell the Ukrainians that they don’t exist as an ethnicity, that there isn’t a Ukrainian language,” said Viktor Olevich, a political scientist.

    Speaking on a talk show on Rossiya-1, Russia’s main state television channel, Aleksei Fenenko, a lecturer at Moscow State University, said that Moscow must concede that it faces a formidable adversary in Ukraine.

    “We have to admit that Ukraine has rallied against us,” Mr. Fenenko said. “We must treat it as a serious and dangerous adversary.”

    Vitaly Tretyakov, a political scientist, warned viewers on Monday that unfulfilled expectations about the war might create social upheaval if Russians realize that their country is losing.

    “There is an enormous confidence in our victory, but this confidence should be supported by real advancements,” he said on Thursday on Rossiya-1.

    “Social tensions can emerge not because the population would speak against the operation,” he said, “but because they might ask why it is not active, why there is not victory, no advancements?”
    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09...ine-russia-war

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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

    Then, there is this:

    Ukraine extends battlefield gains as Kremlin reels from setback

    By Isabelle Khurshudyan, Steve Hendrix, Dan Lamothe, Emily Rauhala and David L. Stern
    Updated September 12, 2022 at 5:17 p.m. EDT|Published September 12, 2022 at 2:57 p.m. EDT

    An abandoned Russian armored personnel carrier in a village on the outskirts of Izyum. (Juan Barreto/AFP/Getty Images)

    KYIV, Ukraine — Blue-and-yellow flags were raised in more liberated towns and villages in northeast Ukraine on Monday, as the stunning counteroffensive that pushed Russia into a messy retreat boosted optimism at home and abroad over a potential turning point in the war, and renewed international calls to send Ukraine more weapons in hopes of hastening Russia’s defeat.


    The lightning push by Ukrainian forces, in which they recaptured in a matter of days nearly all of the Kharkiv region occupied since the early days of the war last winter, left Moscow reeling. Despite the setback, the Kremlin and its proxies insisted that the war would go on until President Vladimir Putin’s goals are achieved, and they blamed NATO and the United States for Ukraine’s refusal to surrender.

    The Ukrainian military said Monday that in the previous 24 hours it had advanced into an additional 20 towns and villages that had been under Russian control — claims that could not be independently verified. On Sunday, Ukraine’s commander in chief, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, said his forces had retaken more than more than 3,000 square kilometers, 1,100 square miles, in less than a week.

    U.S. defense officials declined to specify how far they think Ukrainian forces can push, citing concerns about operational security. But it was likely just a “matter of time” before the collapse, considering Russia’s long-running struggles in organizing, equipping and sustaining its forces on the battlefield and Ukraine’s accumulation of high-power weapons provided by the West, said one of the officials, speaking on condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the Pentagon. Still, U.S. officials assessed, the war remains a tough fight for the Ukrainians that could stretch out for a long time.

    In their hasty retreat, spun by Russia’s Defense Ministry as a “regroup,” the Russians abandoned tanks, armored vehicles and ammunition that Ukraine plans to refashion and use on the battlefield. Posting a video of an fully-intact Russian howitzer, a Ukrainian official joked on Twitter that the Ukrainian “military accepted its first lend lease supplies from Russia” in the liberated city of Izyum.

    Russia still occupies large swaths of eastern and southern Ukraine, including cities like Mariupol and Kherson, Putin’s coveted “land bridge” to Crimea, which Russia annexed illegally in 2014, and most of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions where Russia has recognized two self-declared separatist “republics.”


    [Police officers sort unexploded mine shells and weapons after their return from the village of Udy, which was recently liberated from Russian occupation, in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine. (Gleb Garanich/Reuters)]

    Military analysts, however, said that the equipment losses could be a significant blow to Russia — and that Ukraine will use its recent success to lobby for even more security assistance.

    Amid Ukraine’s startling gains, liberated villages describe Russian troops dropping rifles and fleeing

    In recent weeks, Ukrainian officials had been worried about support from Western partners eroding ahead of U.S. elections that could shift control to the Republicans in Congress and what’s expected to be a difficult and expensive winter in Europe because of spiking energy prices tied to the war. But some Western allies have called to provide Ukraine with more powerful weapons.


    Lithuanian Foreign Affairs Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis tweeted Sunday that “all stockpiles of western advanced armaments,” including long-range missiles, fighter jets and tanks, “must be made available to Ukraine.” Western nations have so far held back from providing those.

    “Let me be frank,” Landsbergis wrote. “It is now beyond doubt that Ukraine could have thrown Russia out months ago if they had been provided with the necessary equipment from day one.”

    Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter that the E.U.'s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, called him to “express his admiration and respect for Ukraine’s defense forces as they liberate more territories from Russian occupation.”

    “He explored further ways for the E.U. to help Ukraine and bring peace closer. I requested weapons, sanctions, and financial aid,” Kuleba said. Borrell recently warned that weapons stocks in E.U. countries were running low — “depleted in a high proportion,” he said — because of donations to Ukraine.

    In Moscow, the retreat exposed fissures among Kremlin loyalists.

    Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said he might have to speak with Putin himself because he didn’t trust that Putin is receiving the bad news from his advisers. Pro-Russian military bloggers have sharply criticized the government for not mobilizing more soldiers for the fight — a move that Putin has sought to avoid because conscriptions could risk turning public support against the war.

    On Monday, officials reiterated that the aims of the “special military operation” — the Kremlin term for the war — would be accomplished regardless of the setbacks, though the precise aims have never been fully clear. At first, Putin was intent on capturing Kyiv and toppling the government, but that failed.

    “The goals of the special military operation will be achieved,” Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of the Russian Security Council said on Monday in Kemerovo at a meeting in the Siberian Federal District. “The events around Ukraine show that the United States and its vassals are trying to prolong the conflict in Ukraine by increasing the supply of weapons and military equipment, which is later used against civilians.”


    Russia appeared to respond to Ukraine’s counteroffensive with retaliatory missile strikes on critical civilian infrastructure on Sunday night, plunging several regions, including Kharkiv, into darkness as the power went out. Pentagon officials said there had been a notable increase in missile strikes over the weekend.

    Kremlin propagandist Margarita Simonyan, the editor in chief of the government-funded TV channel RT, formerly Russia Today, cheered the attacks, adding on social media that “electricity is a privilege.”

    Russian troops in big retreat as Ukraine offensive advances in Kharkiv

    But the mood around Ukraine remained jubilant and defiant on Monday.

    On social media, people reposted Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky’s statement directly addressing the Russians, saying that, “cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as scary and deadly for us as your ‘friendship and brotherhood.’ ”


    The euphoria seemed only to harden Ukraine’s position that it will not surrender an inch of territory to Russia, and is intent on reclaiming land, including Crimea, that has been occupied since 2014. Zelensky reiterated on Sunday night that Ukraine was not prepared to negotiate with Russia because it had yet to formulate any acceptable offers.

    Volodymyr Fesenko, director of the Penta, Center of Applied Political Studies in Kyiv, said the military successes were “a signal to exactly those Western politicians who are wavering,” who fear that providing weapons could lead to a dangerous escalation in the conflict. The gains have also expanded the Ukrainian government’s own ambitions for eventual peace talks, he said.

    “I think that strengthening the military positions in Ukraine means strengthening the diplomatic positions of our country,” Fesenko said.

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    U.S. officials have said that it is up to Ukrainian officials if and when they choose to broker an end to the war with Russia. But some of Ukraine’s Western partners are concerned that the Russian setbacks, combined with Zelensky’s refusal to make concessions, could escalate the conflict and even prompt Putin to use a tactical nuclear weapon.

    “The West should be very clear now that crossing those lines could bring NATO much more aggressively into the conflict,” said Jim Stavridis, a retired U.S. admiral and former supreme allied commander of NATO.

    “While the odds of fully expelling the Russians from all of Ukraine are long, the job of the West should be to give them what they need to be in the strongest possible position to negotiate — something that appears months away,” Stavridis said.

    Maintaining the recently reclaimed territory will now be the challenge for Ukraine. The eastern Kharkiv region borders Russia and the city of Kharkiv, which was Ukraine’s second-largest before the war, remains in range of Russian multiple launch rocket systems even if fired from Russian territory.


    On Monday, after the recent dizzying run of victories, at least some Ukrainian soldiers stole a few hours to rest, stock up on snacks and celebrate.

    In Chuhuiv, a city east of Kharkiv, the pickup trucks, panel vans and SUVs — hastily painted camo green and donated from around Europe — came and went from the small grocery store.

    Fighters came out with bread and candy bars and bottles of soda, many wearing broad grins and some exchanging chest hugs when they passed each other.

    “We feel fantastic,” said one, apologizing for not having time to talk as hurried to jump in a buddy’s car. “We have momentum.”

    Chuhuiv, a gateway to the stretch of liberated villages east of Kharkiv — Ukraine’s second largest city — is at the edge of Ukraine’s intact cellphone network and many of the soldiers were taking advantage of an internet opportunity. A bearded soldier leaned back on a bench talking on his phone, wearing a look of contented fatigue.


    Misha, a member of the 14th Brigade who said he couldn’t give his last name, scrolled on his phone outside of a store selling military wear. Even the soldiers were stunned, he said, by the progress of the counteroffensive.

    One young Ukrainian soldier’s death felt by family, friends and country

    “We’ve made it all the way to the Russian border so it’s time to breathe a bit, wait for the next orders,” Misha said.

    His unit helped liberate a village that has been occupied since the very first days of the invasion. The men are still based there, giving them a chance to see some residents return to the homes for the first time in seven months, even though some areas are still laced with mines and unexploded ordnance.

    “They are thrilled to come home, and they are so grateful to us,” said Misha, 50. “But one man waved us over to show us a rocket in his yard that hadn’t blown up.”

    By Monday night, Ukrainian forces had advanced deeper into the Donetsk and Luhansk regions — photos of Ukrainian flags raised in Bohorodychne and Sviatohirsk, on the banks of the Siverskyi Donets River, were widely circulated on social media.

    The military also claimed to recapture about 195 square miles of territory in the south of the country and to liberate five settlements as part of a counteroffensive in the past two weeks, but the gains could not be independently verified.

    Though Ukraine had hyped a coming counteroffensive in the south to take back the port city of Kherson, its simultaneous push around Kharkiv evidently took the Russians by surprise. Russia reinforced its positions in Kherson, and Ukraine’s gains there have been slower. The Ukrainian military has restricted media access to the region.

    Western military experts said they were impressed by Ukraine’s success.

    “It needs to be highlighted what a great job the Ukrainians have done controlling information — their operational security,” said retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. Army Europe.

    “We know a lot more about what is happening on the Russian side. The fact the Ukrainians were able to move troops and equipment to the north when the Russians looked to the south that’s really, really good,” he said.

    “For Russia, this is a culminating point,” Hodges said. “They ran out of steam back in August. They could not continue offensive operations. The Ukrainians saw this and began preparations months ago.”

    Hendrix reported from Chuhuiv, Ukraine, Lamothe from Washington, Rauhala from Brussels and Stern from Kyiv. Robyn Dixon in Riga, Latvia, and Missy Ryan and Karen DeYoung in Washington contributed to this report.

  10. #368
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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

    Hoping for a resounding and destabilizing defeat for Russia in the near future. Russia has been a curse my whole life. Glad I may yet live to see the end of it.

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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrawler View Post
    Hoping for a resounding and destabilizing defeat for Russia in the near future. Russia has been a curse my whole life. Glad I may yet live to see the end of it.
    I agree!!

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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

    Someone mentioned Paul Krugman the other day. This is his op-ed today entitled, "Ukraine Deflates MAGA Macho Myths"
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/o...smid=share-url

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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chuck Naill View Post
    Someone mentioned Paul Krugman the other day. This is his op-ed today entitled, "Ukraine Deflates MAGA Macho Myths"
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/o...smid=share-url
    From the OP:

    I would plead that we not turn this into "the usual"...
    Neither MAGA nor Krugman (who begins his piece criticizing Tucker Carlson) have any place in this thread. Ukraine is recapturing territory, Russia is struggling to maintain combat power, etc... There's plenty to talk about besides U.S. tabloid gossip.
    "A truth does not mind being questioned. A lie does not like being challenged."

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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by welch View Post
    Then, there is this:

    Ukraine extends battlefield gains as Kremlin reels from setback

    By Isabelle Khurshudyan, Steve Hendrix, Dan Lamothe, Emily Rauhala and David L. Stern
    Updated September 12, 2022 at 5:17 p.m. EDT|Published September 12, 2022 at 2:57 p.m. EDT

    An abandoned Russian armored personnel carrier in a village on the outskirts of Izyum. (Juan Barreto/AFP/Getty Images)

    KYIV, Ukraine — Blue-and-yellow flags were raised in more liberated towns and villages in northeast Ukraine on Monday, as the stunning counteroffensive that pushed Russia into a messy retreat boosted optimism at home and abroad over a potential turning point in the war, and renewed international calls to send Ukraine more weapons in hopes of hastening Russia’s defeat.....[snipped]
    Thanks for this, Welch. You have been very helpful in this thread.

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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

    A regularly updated source, which I've not examined regularly to gauge it for bias:
    https://understandingwar.org/

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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by kazoolaw View Post
    A regularly updated source, which I've not examined regularly to gauge it for bias:
    https://understandingwar.org/
    Thanks for this. We can do our own assessing of its value. I had forgotten about it as a source....

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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by kazoolaw View Post
    A regularly updated source, which I've not examined regularly to gauge it for bias:
    https://understandingwar.org/
    welch (or maybe TSherbs) shared it early in the thread. It's got General Keane's name on it, so it's not crap and it's not political. My assessment is that it's typical open-source intel analysis done by uniformed folks every day. Their operational graphics are what would be displayed on a slide in an ops center, and the text would be what was briefed.

    I give the intel folks a lot of grief, and had my criticisms of this bunch. Their age and experience showing in their product, mainly. That said, they are trying to read tea leaves... It's a good product that would normally be combined with stuff from classified sources, then analyzed and drafted into a final product.
    "A truth does not mind being questioned. A lie does not like being challenged."

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  24. #376
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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

    Seen a couple stories that the Wagner Group mercenary outfit is recruiting in Russian prisons, offering freedom to convicted criminals who will serve for six months in Ukraine.

    Sounds like desperation, eh?

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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

    A retired general, one who ran the Army's training command, compare US training and Russian training. He thinks Putin is sending untrained conscripts right to the front lines. They will be massacred.

    Retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling commanded the 1st Armored Division during the Iraq surge and later commanded U.S. Army Europe.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to activate 300,000 “reservists” — some of whom have previously served, some who have not — to hold the line in Ukraine has led thousands of young Russian men to flee the country. The call-up is an outrage, but not only for the reasons you might imagine. Sending new recruits, poorly trained Russian reservists and untrained civilians into Ukraine is a recipe for slaughter. They will not be prepared for what they will encounter.

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    Years ago, I was given the command of the organization that oversees all basic training for the Army (what some call “boot camp”) as well as managing the advanced training that follows for every Army trooper. At the time, the United States was recruiting approximately 160,000 soldiers, warrant officers and officers each year.


    Most Americans who volunteer to join the Army undergo 10 weeks of basic training, then head to different locations for more training in an assigned specialty. “Basic” is a packed period in which soldiers learn and practice such skills as rifle marksmanship, first aid, map reading, land navigation and grenade throwing. They also learn about working as part of a team, reacting to various kinds of attacks (artillery, chemical, ambush, etc.), drill and ceremony (how to march, salute and other elements of discipline), professional ethos and values, and a variety of other skills. It is intense.

    The length of the follow-on training depends on the specialty selected by each soldier, but it’s measured in months, not weeks. An intelligence specialist who works as an interpreter spends almost a year learning the trade. Logistics specialists — truck drivers, fuelers, mechanics — spend less, depending on their jobs. Most recruits will spend three or four years in uniform, and a large percentage reenlist and stay in the professional force.

    I later became the commander of the U.S. Army in Europe. In that role, I was able to visit Russia several times and observe how another army trained its conscripts and incorporated them into its force.


    Russia’s army is mainly a conscript force. Twice a year, Russian men between the ages of 18 and 27 present themselves to their local commissariat. This annual pool is more than 1 million men, from which 120,000 to 140,000 are deemed qualified and are compelled to serve. Russian conscripts then participate in one to two months of basic training (the exact number of weeks is not defined), followed by three to six months of advanced training in a particular skill set. Graduated soldiers report to their units for a short 12- to 18-month enlistment. Few make the army a career.


    Putin’s recruits are heading for slaughter

    It is easy to see why. Russian drill sergeants were unprofessional and continuously harassed and hazed recruits. Marksmanship training was geared toward familiarization with a weapon, but not qualification on it. Soldiers were allocated few rounds for practice on firing ranges. First aid training was rudimentary, map reading and land navigation was nonexistent, soldier initiative was lacking, and discipline was lax.

    The barracks were crowded, bunks were close, ventilation was poor. Showers and toilets were gang latrines. Food in the mess halls had small portions, no choices and little nutritional value. I didn’t observe any training on values, soldiers’ ethics, professional behavior, or the teaching of land warfare, all key parts of U.S. basic training. Most training in those areas, I was told by a Russian colonel, is conducted after soldiers leave basic and report to their units. To which I could only conclude: Yeah, right.

    Shortly thereafter, I visited a tank regiment. I was ushered to that battalion’s single T-72 tank crew simulator, participated in a drill, and found the device rudimentary and unrealistic. U.S. armor crewmen spend extensive time in tank simulators before firing dozens of live rounds at different types of moving and stationary targets at extended ranges — on multiple types of tank ranges. After experiencing the Russian simulator, I went to their single tank range and was proudly told by the Russian commander that each of his crews was able to fire one live round per year. I tried to keep my jaw from dropping.

    Having watched the Russian army during the first seven months of its campaign in Ukraine, I cannot say I’m surprised by any of their setbacks. The Russians performed as their training would have suggested: poorly. The casualty counts reflect this. It is no wonder so many young Russians are fleeing the country.

    Which brings us back to how Putin’s 300,000 “reservists” will fare against Ukraine’s NATO-trained army. It is likely those recruits will join units that have recently been traumatized after seven months of combat and already suffer from poor morale. It won’t help that those units have recently been reinforced with prison parolees, ragtag militias from false “peoples’ republics,” and recruited guns from private armies.

    The results will be predictable. Putin might continue to send unwilling Russian men to an ill-conceived and illegal invasion for which they are not trained or prepared. But it’s not warfare. It’s just more murder — this time of his own citizens.
    From the Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...s-flee-russia/

    Full disclosure: my son, Redskin Dan v1978, joined the NJ National Guard in the summer of 2002. I had worked in the World Trade Center from 1985 until 1990, and often took him with me when I had to work on the weekends. In 2001, he was desperate to help dig people out of "the pile", so he decided he'd be in uniform if another catastrophe hit.

    General Hertling describes a basic training that is exactly what Dan went through, right down to being locked into a small room into which the sergeants tossed tear gas. The trainees had to get gas masks on to avoid keeling over in vomit. He won a sharpshooter medal and a hand grenade medal, although nearly everyone passed hand grenade. Incidentally, the worst shot was an NRA star who could never learn quick shooting at targets that only showed themselves briefly. (So much for NRA training).

    As training went on, his platoon learned to make decisions. They often found that great ideas came from a skinny kid, an unathletic kid with thick glasses, a kid who had graduated from Texas A&M. They figured out solutions to getting through obstacles, such as how to get the shortest person -- about four-foot ten -- over a high wall. They stuck together -- "we all get through".

    Oh, and no sergeants beat anyone. "They yell at you, but they don't hit you".

    And then he went on for another three or four months of advanced training.

    Now...go back and compare General Hertlings description, and Dan's story, with what General Hertling saw in Russian army training.
    Last edited by welch; September 28th, 2022 at 07:47 AM.

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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

    That's compelling, welch. Thank you for sharing.

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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by kazoolaw View Post
    A regularly updated source, which I've not examined regularly to gauge it for bias:
    https://understandingwar.org/
    I check them every couple of days. They take from public sources, especially including Russian right-wing "milbloggers". Very handy because they keep track of all the units fighting.

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    Default Re: Ukraine outrage and analysis.

    Der Spiegel {english language} has an article on the Ukrainian counter-offensive. It outlines US military/intelligence involvement in the planning and intelligence gathering the feint and the main assault. Asserts Ukraine needed the offensive to convince the West to continue supplying arms.
    You read, you decide.
    https://www.spiegel.de/international...a-837de8700fc9

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