Ukraine outrage and analysis.

[welch]

Russia is "officially" retreating from Kherson.

This would explain Iran selling arms to Russia

and the U.S. is providing T-72B's to Ukraine. That's really weird to even think, let alone type.

Just saw it in the NY Times, and same story was in The Economist. Announced by Shoigu today.


From the Times:

The withdrawal order came from Russia’s defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, in a meeting with top military leaders that was broadcast on Russian state television, after Gen. Sergei V. Surovikin, Moscow’s commander in Ukraine, explained that heavy shelling by advancing Ukrainian forces had made the Russian position west of the Dnipro River, where Kherson is, untenable.

“Go ahead with the pullout of troops and take all measures to ensure safe transfer of troops, weapons and equipment to the other bank of the Dnipro River,” Mr. Shoigu said.

Mr. Putin was not present at the meeting, distancing him from both an embarrassing defeat and a decision to retreat that, Kremlin analysts say, only he could have made.

By day’s end there was strong evidence that Russians were withdrawing from the territory they held west of the river, Ukrainian officials said, as Ukrainian soldiers entered some frontline villages that had been under Russian control in the morning.

Wary of a possible ruse meant to lure Ukrainian troops into a trap, the officials cautioned that they were not yet sure about the status of Russian forces within the city, but as the day went on they grew more confident that the pullback was real.

“We have signs they are pulling out,” moving heavy equipment first and then infantry, said Roman Kostenko, a Ukrainian army colonel and chairman of the defense and intelligence committee in Parliament. “They blew up bridges that would have allowed our forces to advance. We see them leaving population centers, but in some they leave soldiers behind to cover their movements.”

The announced retreat is one of the most significant setbacks for Russia in the war Mr. Putin started in February. Kherson, an important port and industrial city seized during the early days of the war, has been a strategic and symbolic prize of the invasion — the only regional capital Russia captured. It gave Moscow an important foothold west of the Dnipro, from where it expanded and which it hoped to use as a base to push farther west, all the way to the critical port city of Odesa.

News of the withdrawal drew anguished and angry responses from some prominent Russian hawks, while others described it as a sensible, tactical retreat to a more defensible front.

“The decision is shocking to thousands and millions of people who are fighting for Russia, dying for Russia, believe in Russia and share the beliefs of the Russian world,” wrote Yuri Kotyonok, an influential military blogger.

Boris Rozhin, a Russian military analyst, called the retreat the Russian Federation’s “most serious military defeat since 1991,” when it formed. In a Telegram post, he wrote, “If there won’t be any upcoming successes with major towns captured and no advancement during the winter offensive, the series of military setbacks would accumulate a much greater internal discontent than sanctions.”

But Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russian analyst who studies Mr. Putin for her political analysis firm R.Politik, said in a phone interview: “This just confirms, in my view, how pragmatic Putin is. He’s not as crazy as we thought.”

The impact of the Russian move on any potential peace talks was unclear. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and his top aides conveyed this week that, if anything, their position has hardened — that Russia must first leave Ukraine completely, and that it must pay war reparations — and that, in any case, Moscow isn’t interested in negotiations.

President Biden said at a White House news conference on Wednesday, “It remains to be seen whether Ukraine is willing to compromise.” He later insisted that it was up to the Ukrainians whether to enter talks or make concessions.

“They’re going to both lick their wounds, decide what they’re going to do over the winter and decide whether or not they’re going to compromise,” he said.

On Kherson, Mr. Biden said he had expected a Russian retreat. “It’s evidence of the fact that they have some real problems, the Russian military,” he said.

Other U.S. officials said it was not entirely clear that Moscow was abandoning the west bank of the Dnipro, and might not be clear for a few days. But the officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to address the matter publicly, said it would make sense to withdraw troops that were increasingly cut off, preserving them to fight another day.

Mr. Shoigu’s evidently choreographed meeting, where both he and General Surovikin said they were motivated by concern for the troops, appeared aimed at softening the blow for a domestic audience. Russians have seen increasing reports of a badly managed war, a chaotic draft that prompted widespread protests, heavy casualties, and troops lacking training and equipment who were used as cannon fodder. At the same time, pro-war commenters have criticized the Kremlin for not waging a more aggressive, brutal fight.

The occupation forces had telegraphed a possible pullback for weeks, making statements about the difficult position of troops in Kherson and ordering both the Kremlin-appointed regional government and the remaining civilians to flee eastward. The Ukrainian military was skeptical, reporting just days ago that 40,000 Russian troops were west of the river, digging in to fight for the city.

Moscow’s apparent decision to pull back allows an orderly withdrawal rather than the kind of sudden collapse and panicked retreat its forces endured from the northeastern Kharkiv region in September, leaving behind a treasure trove of weapons and other equipment that the Ukrainians could use.

“There is a lot of joy in the media space today, and it is clear why, but our emotions must be restrained — always during war,” Mr. Zelensky said Wednesday in his nightly address. He added, “When you are fighting, you must understand that every step is always resistance from the enemy, it is always the loss of the lives of our heroes.”

Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Mr. Zelensky, said retreat was less a choice for the Russians than an inevitability, as Ukraine’s forces “methodically gnawed through the enemy’s defenses.”

The news that Russia was withdrawing was greeted with cautious jubilation by some local residents, who have suffered under harsh Russian rule with dwindling food, electricity and water. In Kherson, Valentyn, 50, said in a text message exchange that he awoke Wednesday to booming explosions — nothing unusual — but then “it became eerily quiet.”

“Russians are escaping; the city is almost empty,” said Valentyn, who asked that his last name be withheld for his safety. “In many places there’s no light and no water.”

He added: “The atmosphere is tense, we stay at home and wait. For our forces to enter.”

Dudchany, a village north of the city, “was divided by the front line” for a month, said Alla Torchanska, the village leader. Caught in the combat zone, residents were harassed by Russian troops who, she said, “would come every now and then, detain and interrogate people, check their phones, and take away the valuable things.”

“Today,” Ms. Torchanska said, “the Ukrainian forces finally took the entire village under their control. It’s such a blessing. Everyone feels festive.”

The grinding Ukrainian offensive has whittled down the Russian-held pocket west of the Dnipro, farm by farm and town by town, closing in on the largely evacuated city and destroying bridges the Russians used to reinforce and resupply their troops. Western intelligence officials have said that Mr. Putin rejected earlier requests by his military to abandon the city.

But people who know Mr. Putin say he still believes he can win a war he has cast as a broader conflict with the United States and its allies, convinced that the West and Ukraine will be unwilling or unable to pay the price for as long as Russia will.

The deputy head of the Russian occupation government in the broader Kherson region, Kyrylo Stremousov, who had been outspoken about Russia’s deteriorating military situation, died in a car accident, the regional chief, Volodymyr Saldo, said on Wednesday. [My comment: just like everyone else who criticizes Putin and then slips off a balcony to their hospital room.]

Some Ukrainians remained cautious in their assessment of Russian actions. Residents and Ukrainian officials have reported Russian soldiers changing into civilian clothes and taking over homes in Kherson city and the surrounding towns and villages, possible signs of planned ambushes. Russians have laid mines and destroyed roads to slow advancing Ukrainian forces.

“We don’t know how far we will move tomorrow,” said Colonel Kostenko, the Ukrainian lawmaker.

Ukrainian officials have also warned that if the Russians do abandon Kherson, they could then devastate it with artillery from across the river, or with flooding by breaching the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam upstream. Russians and Ukrainians have accused each other of plotting to attack the dam, the last road link Russians have across the Dnipro.

Retaking the west bank of the Dnipro could allow Ukrainian forces to interrupt the primary source of fresh water for the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula, putting them within artillery range of a canal linking the river to the peninsula. Ukraine had cut the flow of water after Russia’s illegal seizure of Crimea in 2014, and the Russians’ offensive earlier this year allowed them to restart it.

[dneal]

The deputy head of the Russian occupation government in the broader Kherson region, Kyrylo Stremousov, who had been outspoken about Russia’s deteriorating military situation, died in a car accident, the regional chief, Volodymyr Saldo, said on Wednesday. [My comment: just like everyone else who criticizes Putin and then slips off a balcony to their hospital room.]

They’re even more creative than that, when it comes to plausibly deniable death sentences…

Newsweek: Russian Official Conscripted to Ukraine Front Line by Election Rival

[dneal]

From a link shared by an old friend who is now a strategist on Turkish news.

Satellites detected: Russia is pulling the defense line to the north of Crimea!

According to the information we verified with Sentinel-2 and other satellites, the Russian army, which announced its withdrawal from Kherson, is digging trenches “NORTH” of the Crimean peninsula!

In the satellite images taken, the ditches dug in the northern parts of the Crimean peninsula were revealed.

Not only the trenches, but according to the latest information, Russia has restored the Chonhar checkpoint itself (as well as its trenches - the zigzag ones) between the Crimea and Kherson Oblast. New ditches were also built on top of the old ones.

Russian appears to be moving to the defense - which is their strength. Small commercial observation drones and HIMARS could be effective, but attacking it with maneuver formations would be a mistake.

Seems to cement the idea that Crimea and a land bridge to it are the core objectives.

[welch]

Discussion on Al Jazeera of the Ukrainian recovery of Kherson.

https://www.aljazeera.com/program/in...he-ukraine-war

https://www.aljazeera.com/program/in...he-ukraine-war

[TSherbs]

Has the mining of Kherson by retreating Russians been verified?

[kazoolaw]

Apparently two Russian missiles struck Poland, killing two.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...1ee71b52ff9d52
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/o...jor-escalation
Poland is a NATO country, implicating treaty provisions.

[TSherbs]

I saw that. No details yet, but Poland has invoked Article 4 (NATO).

[dneal]

I agree with this take, and it saves me a lot of typing.

Irresponsible Coverage of Ukraine War Helps No One

Last night a missile hit a farm in a remote area of Poland near the Ukrainian border, killing two people.

Before anyone had the opportunity to investigate what had actually happened, some Western media outlets ran panic-inducing pieces suggesting Putin was testing NATO’s boundaries.

The Express ran a story quoting a Ukrainian MP who suggested the same. It is perfectly understandable that many Ukrainians whose country is being ravaged by war want help and are likely to see any events that occur through that lens. In their place, most of us would do the same. But for Western media to engage in this sort of scare-mongering is completely irresponsible.

At the time these reports were published, there was no evidence that this was a deliberate Russian attack on Polish soil. What kind of moron begins a military campaign against NATO by bombing a remote farm? Even the Poles themselves, whose country was actually attacked and whose citizens were killed, were careful to describe this as a “Russian-made missile” (not to be picky, but it was quite possibly a Soviet-made missile - more on that later) to avoid assigning responsibility to a specific country while investigations were ongoing.

President Biden has since confirmed that the missile was “unlikely to have been fired from Russia” and this morning the President of Poland confirmed that there is no indication that the missile attack was deliberate.

What actually happened, as I said at the time, was almost certainly an accident.

There are two possibilities:

The missile in question appears to be an S-300 which is a long-range surface-to-air missile designed and manufactured in the Soviet Union and later Russia. As a former member state of the Soviet Union, Ukraine has significant stockpiles and uses them to shoot down Russian aircraft and missiles. As has been claimed this morning by numerous parties, it is likely this missile was a Ukrainian attempt to shoot down a Russian missile which went awry.

While originally designed to be a surface-to-air missile, there have been reports of Russia modifying S-300s to make them surface-to-surface missiles. It is possible that a modified Russian S-300 was fired at a target in Ukraine and hit Poland by accident instead. This is less likely and there is some debate about whether previous surface-to-surface S-300 strikes may in fact be misfires of Ukrainian air defences as may have happened here.

In any event, there was and is absolutely no evidence that this was a deliberate provocation and I am glad Western political leaders have acted responsibly in addressing this tragedy. Two people were killed and this was a serious incident.

But irresponsible coverage of this nature from Western media is deeply unhelpful. I am against Putin’s war. I am against his attempt to build a new world order as explained here by me or here by Putin himself. But we don’t support Ukraine by starting WW3. I know the slowly-dying mainstream media need clicks but perhaps for once they can think about the impact they’re having on the world as well?

[TSherbs]

I thought the same (mostly). Seems sensible. Wouldn't NATO satellite intelligence know exactly where that missile came from?

[TSherbs]

And I am still wondering if they have verified any evidence of Russian mines in Kherson (we also heard news bombast about that).

[dneal]

I thought the same (mostly). Seems sensible. Wouldn't NATO satellite intelligence know exactly where that missile came from?

Possible, although radar is the usual method. Problem is you have to be looking for it at the time.

And I am still wondering if they have verified any evidence of Russian mines in Kherson (we also heard news bombast about that).

Probably accurate, because they're a country where mines are still standard practice. Healthy skepticism is mandatory for everything coming out of the area, because of information operations and unintentional misinformation (e.g.: the Ghost of Kiev pilot)

[TSherbs]

from CNN:

Quoting the President of Poland:

“There is no indication that this was an intentional attack on Poland. Most likely, it was a Russian-made S-300 rocket,” Duda said in a tweet Wednesday. He later told a press conference that there was a “high chance” it was an air defense missile from the Ukrainian side and likely had fallen on Polish territory in “an accident” while intercepting incoming Russian missiles.

Duda’s comments were in line with those of two officials briefed on initial US assessments, who told CNN it appears the missile that originated in Ukraine, even though it was Russian-made.

No confirmation, just "most likely" and "likely" was an "accident."

[TSherbs]

Do you think that Poland scrambled fighters into the air? Maybe they are already flying regular sorties along their borders, I don't know.

[dneal]

Probably. The US and NATO have been doing Atlantic Resolve since 2014. Sorties would be part of a show of force, which is done as a deterrent; and has been part of the continuing exercise.

[welch]

Al Jazeera on "Next":

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...or-this-winter

[dneal]

Al Jazeera on "Next":

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...or-this-winter

I admittedly started to roll my eyes at the first question of fighting in the cold, and had Napoleon, Hitler and my Eskimo analogy ready; but they got it right (both nations intimately understand it). It’s a good piece that lays out the challenges.

One thing though: “Tanks fare better once the ground hardens” is true, unless mud freezes in the tracks, track guides and road wheels. That will immobilize one (as any bulldozer operator will attest). It’s hard to deal with when there’s mud in daytime temperatures and frozen mud at night.

[welch]

The Times on next steps. I haven't yet weeded out the advertisements, but you all can spot them and skip them.

For Ukraine, So Much Unexpected Success, and Yet So Far to Go
Give this article



For Ukraine, So Much Unexpected Success, and Yet So Far to Go
Ukraine is on the offensive along most of the 600-mile front line, and the Russians are in a defensive crouch. But about one-fifth of Ukrainian territory is still occupied by Russia.


Marc SantoraAndrew E. Kramer
By Marc Santora and Andrew E. Kramer
Nov. 22, 2022, 12:04 a.m. ET
Sign up for the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing. Every evening, we'll send you a summary of the day's biggest news. Get it sent to your inbox.

KYIV, Ukraine — In forests, in fields and in fierce urban combat, the Ukrainian military has defied the odds, and all expectations, and forced Russia into multiple retreats over nine brutal, bloody months of war.

And yet despite its success, and even with tens of thousands of soldiers killed on each side, Ukraine by one measure is only halfway done: Its army has now reclaimed about 55 percent of the territory Russia occupied after invading in February.

Ukraine is on the offensive along most of the 600-mile frontline. Russia is in a defensive crouch in the south and northeast while still attacking toward one eastern city, Bakhmut.

Ukraine’s success has brought the war to a pivotal juncture. Because it is on the offensive, it can shape the next phase of the fighting, determining whether to push its advantage farther into Russian-occupied territory, or settle in for the winter, as military analysts say Russia would like to do.

Should it press on, Ukraine faces significant hurdles: While it has pushed more Russian fighters into a tighter space, this means the battles ahead will be against more densely defended territory, on challenging terrain.

Ukraine is now fighting in boats in the reedy marshes and deltaic islands of the lower Dnipro River; it is pushing against multiple trench lines on snowy plains in the Zaporizhzhia region in the south; and is engaging in a bloody, seesaw fight along the so-called Svatove-Kreminna line, in pine forests in northeastern Ukraine.

After the Russian withdrawal from Kherson this month, President Volodymyr Zelensky made a dramatic visit to the city, the only provincial capital captured by Russian forces. Raising the Ukrainian flag over a government building, he echoed a famous speech by Winston Churchill after the British victory at the Second Battle of El Alamein in 1942.

Mr. Churchill had declared “the end of the beginning” to the conflict, which would drag on for three more years. Mr. Zelensky tried to flip the narrative.


“This is the beginning of the end of the war,” he said.

Still, about one-fifth of Ukrainian territory remains occupied by Russia.

A Reshaped Front

The winter war, after Ukraine liberated the city of Kherson and surrounding areas earlier this month, is beginning now with a radically altered front line and a Russian army that is demoralized and degraded.

“Russian ground units have suffered from low morale, poor execution of combined arms, subpar training, deficient logistics, corruption, and even drunkenness,” wrote Seth G. Jones, the director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

Ukraine’s advances mean more of Russia’s supply lines in southern Ukraine are now within range of Ukrainian guns and rockets, and Kyiv says it will keep firing on them.

But the new geometry also creates advantages for the Russians, whose pullback from Kherson this month was their third major retreat of the war — but one that moved their forces to more defensible positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River.

The Russians continue to send newly mobilized soldiers to Ukraine to make up for steep losses. The tens of thousands of Russian soldiers withdrawn from the Kherson region west of the river are freed up for redeployment, to reinforce defensive lines in the northeast, mount new attacks in the Donetsk region and fortify Moscow’s hold on the land bridge from Russia to Crimea that is so important to the Kremlin.

While military analysts frequently note that the winter weather — the first snowstorm blew over the trenches this weekend — will likely slow the pace of Ukrainian offensives, it will also certainly take a toll on poorly equipped Russian soldiers. And yet the war began in the winter last February, and both armies have extensive experience fighting in wintertime on the Eurasian steppe.


A separate war, on infrastructure

While Russian soldiers are on the defensive on battlefields in the south and east, Moscow has opened what amounts to a separate war: missile and drone strikes aimed at destroying Ukraine’s infrastructure, degrading the quality of life for millions of civilians in an effort to demoralize them.

Last week, Russia launched its largest bombardment of the war aimed at power plants, substations, natural gas facilities and waterworks — a sustained campaign of devastation rarely attempted before.

Col. Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, said on Monday that the military has “autonomous power sources,” so that problems with the national grid do not directly impact soldiers on the front. And he said the attacks provide motivation for soldiers who have families enduring the hardships, strengthening their resolve to fight.

But the strikes are a drain on Ukraine’s air defense system, Colonel Ihnat acknowledged. He said Ukraine shoots, on average, two missiles at each Russian rocket in hopes of increasing its chance of success, and now it needs more ammunition and air defense systems to keep up. Additionally, he said, Russia is using relatively cheap drones to exhaust Ukrainian air defenses.

Colonel Ihnat said this weekend that the missile bombardments are meant to force Kyiv to the negotiating table.

“It is clear they want to impose certain conditions, they want to make us negotiate,” he said.

The Kremlin has acknowledged as much. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, told reporters last week that the infrastructure strikes are “the consequences” of Ukraine’s unwillingness to “enter into negotiation.”

Image
A boy holds a photo of a Russian sailor, Georgy Shakuro, who was killed in a military action in Ukraine, as the father of Mr. Shakuro cries while looking at a tree planted in memory of his son, in Sevastopol, in Russia-occupied Crimea, on Sunday.
A boy holds a photo of a Russian sailor, Georgy Shakuro, who was killed in a military action in Ukraine, as the father of Mr. Shakuro cries while looking at a tree planted in memory of his son, in Sevastopol, in Russia-occupied Crimea, on Sunday.Credit...Associated Press

Ukraine Strikes Deep in the South

Despite Russian threats, officials in Kyiv say they are in no mood to negotiate, hoping instead to use the momentum of the fall offensives to keep Russian forces on the back foot.

Ukraine’s military said last week that Russian soldiers were already retreating 10 to 15 miles from the eastern bank of the Dnipro River near Kherson, to move out of Ukrainian howitzer range.

As things stand, Ukraine’s precision, long-range missiles can now reach deeper into Russian controlled territory, with nearly everything north of Crimea within range. In a reflection of their changing fortunes, the Russians are now digging trenches in northern Crimea, the peninsula they annexed in 2014.

The Russians are also adding new layers of defenses outside the southern city of Melitopol, which was occupied by Russia in the first days of the war. It sits at the crossroads of the main highways in the south, making it perhaps the most strategically important city under Russian control.

Military analysts have speculated that Ukraine may try to divide Russian forces in the east and south by driving through Melitopol.


Bloodshed in the Donbas

The rolling plains, coal mining and farming towns of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine remain contested ground — and an area where Russia is seeking to turn the tide of its failures.

According to Gen. Oleksiy Hromov, a member of the Ukrainian general staff, the eastern front remains the most challenging in the country. Between Nov. 12 and 17, he said, the Ukrainian military reported more than 500 military clashes in the region.

The Donbas has divided into two battles: One is a trench line through pine forests along a critical supply route known as the Svatove-Kreminna line, for the two largest towns in the area. The other is a battle for Bakhmut, a city in a bowl-like river valley, with each side holding heights. The city and nearby villages have become a shooting gallery for artillery.

Bakhmut has limited strategic value, but the fighting is fierce for several reasons. For Russia, capturing it could open a pathway to other more important cities in the Donbas. Beyond that, Bakhmut is viewed as a trophy by the Russian private military contracting company, Wagner, which has sought to seize it as a way to compensate for losses elsewhere and to buoy the political fortunes back in Russia of the company’s founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Ukraine, for its part, has been reluctant to yield any city without a fight — witness its monthslong battle over Sievierodonetsk, a city nearby Bakhmut and ultimately taken by the Russians, and Mykolaiv in the south, still held by Ukraine.

Peace Talks Unlikely

“Across the entire front line,” Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last week, “the Ukrainians have achieved success after success after success and the Russians have failed every single time.”

But General Milley also noted the Russians still control a sizable chunk of Ukraine, and he has suggested that Kyiv, its successes notwithstanding, signal more openness for negotiation.

“It’s not a small piece of ground,” General Milley said of territory that remains to be liberated. “And it’s not going to happen in the next couple of weeks, unless the Russian army completely collapses, which is unlikely.”

But the idea of trading land for peace remains a nonstarter in Kyiv. The Zelensky government does not believe any negotiated settlement would be lasting.

Speaking by video to the Halifax International Security Forum on Saturday, Mr. Zelensky said that many people are asking how to end the war.

“But I will ask you to formulate a more precise question — how to restore real and just peace,” he said. A truce now, he said, would not mark the end of war. It would just grant Moscow time to recover before attacking again.

“Immoral compromises,” he said, “will only lead to more blood.”

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[TSherbs]

Interesting. I wonder if we will give aid to help Ukrainian civilians to get through the winter.

[welch]

Interesting. I wonder if we will give aid to help Ukrainian civilians to get through the winter.

I hope so. I see Putinists congratulating themselves on the idea that Ukrainians will freeze in the dark this winter.

[TSherbs]

You would think that Putin would understand that any level of continuing Russian occupation in Ukraine will forever now be subject to sabotage, assassination, and subterfuge. This is no win for him over, say, the next ten years. Is he thinking of forcibly removing population and building a fence like in Korea? Other than that, he's fucked. I know he spent time as an officer in East Berlin, but really?