Ukraine outrage and analysis.

[dneal]

Interesting, and unexpected. WSJ LINK

Ukraine Strikes Russian Navy as War Enters Second Month
The attack on a logistics hub for Russian forces came as Kyiv has tried to capitalize on Moscow’s struggle to supply its forces in Ukraine

Ukraine said it struck the Russian-occupied port in the Azov Sea city of Berdyansk on Thursday, igniting a large fire and hitting a Russian warship at the site, which has become a major logistics hub for Moscow’s invasion forces.

Footage from the area showed smoke billowing from a ship and secondary explosions from detonating ammunition. Footage also showed two smaller Russian ships fleeing the port after the explosions, one of the ships on fire.

The attack in Berdyansk—50 miles west of the besieged port of Mariupol and nearly 100 miles from the main front line in southern Ukraine—is a sign Kyiv has retained significant military capabilities in its fight against larger Russian forces that are struggling to maintain supply lines in the country.

also, from Reuters

U.S. assesses up to 60% failure rate for some Russian missiles, officials say

WASHINGTON, March 24 (Reuters) - The United States assesses that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60% for some of the precision-guided missiles it is using to attack Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of the intelligence told Reuters.

The disclosure could help explain why Russia has failed to achieve what most could consider basic objectives since its invasion a month ago, such as neutralizing Ukraine's air force, despite the apparent strength of its military against Ukraine's much smaller armed forces.

The failures don't surprise me. The failure rate does. I would have expected 10-20%.

[Chip]

A simple proposition:

If the Russian missiles are indeed precision-guided, then the targeting of hospitals, theaters, malls, maternity hospitals, schools, etc. is a vicious war crime on a huge scale.

If they aren't very precise, launching blind strikes is still a vicious war crime on a huge scale.

[dneal]

They are the same country that produced the Lada…

[welch]

They are the same country that produced the Lada…

Russia is the same country that imports computer technology. It lives on exports of raw materials. Twenty years ago, economists predicted that Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) would make the giant leap into advanced industrial societies, joining the US, Europe, Japan, and a few others. China made it, but Russia went nowhere. And now there are reports that members of the technological middle class are leaving Russia as fast as they can for as long as the invasion lasts...or maybe permanently.

Want to help the U.S. economy, promote democratic values abroad and punish Russia in one fell swoop?

One option: Drain Russia’s brains.


The United States, coordinating with Western allies, has deployed many economic weapons against Russia. We’ve weakened its financial system. We’ve stopped buying Russian oil, caviar, vodka. We’ve vowed to find and seize Russian oligarchs’ yachts and apartments. But we haven’t, to date, gone after the country’s most precious resource: its people.

I don’t mean attacking the Russian people. I mean welcoming them here, particularly if they have significant economic and national security value to Russia.

We should start by expediting the most compelling humanitarian cases in the region. In Russia, these include dissidents and journalists risking their necks to challenge Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked war. But we should also actively court those who might be less political: the technical, creative, high-skilled workers upon whom Russia’s economic (and military) fortunes depend.

Already, Russian talent is rushing for the exits, in what might represent the seventh great wave of Russian emigration over the past century.

An estimated 50,000 to 70,000 IT specialists alone have recently left, according to a Russian technology trade group, which predicts another 100,000 might leave by the end of April. Others in the outbound stampede include entrepreneurs, researchers and artists. The pace of this brain drain is especially impressive given how difficult sanctions have made it to buy plane tickets or otherwise conduct transactions across borders, as well as how expensive travel has become. The Russian government hasn’t yet blocked emigration, but it is trying to slow the flow by interrogating those who leave or offering enticements to tech workers who stay.

Russians are fleeing for multiple reasons. Some object to their government’s actions. Many are likely motivated by the threats to their livelihoods and freedoms, resulting from both Western sanctions and Putin’s domestic crackdown. Day-to-day work has become more challenging, foreign-based tech firms have pulled out of the country, and basic websites have been blocked. Getting paid has also become difficult, thanks to sanctions affecting the financial system.

If a worker’s compensation is tied to an employer’s (tanking) stock price, even worse.

“Lots of people are not ideological; they just want an opportunity for a good life,” says Stuart Anderson, executive director of the National Foundation for American Policy, a nonpartisan think tank that focuses on immigration and trade. “They see that as extremely difficult to do in Russia right now.”

Russian self-exiles are mostly flooding into nearby countries such as Turkey, Armenia and Georgia, but we could smooth their pathway to the United States. Congress already has one blueprint: In early February, the House passed the America Competes Act, which would, among other things, increase immigration of entrepreneurs and PhD scientists from around the world (not just Russia). Alternatively, Congress could tailor a measure toward Russian STEM talent, or the Biden administration could make Russians more broadly eligible for refugee status. (We did something similar for people fleeing the Eastern Bloc during the Cold War.)

The Biden administration announced Thursday it will welcome up to 100,000 Ukrainians, which is a good start. Scaling up immigration and refugee admissions is both the right thing to do and in our own interests. Refugees and other emigres have a long history of supercharging U.S. innovation, winning Nobel Prizes and contributing to our national security. These include Soviet defectors during the Cold War and a larger-scale exodus of mathematicians and scientists after the collapse of the Soviet Union. We would benefit from a comparable influx of talent today.

But the prospect of doing this while imminently draining Russia’s talent pool should make the policy even more attractive.

The many Russians contemplating whether to leave or wait out the conflict, or those who have fled to neighboring countries, might revise their plans if they know there are more opportunities to connect with U.S. employers and universities.

We should likewise be aggressively recruiting Russian international students to U.S. universities, contrary to the knee-jerk suggestions of some Democratic congressmen to expel the roughly 5,000 Russian exchange students here. (Among those who would be booted under such a policy: Russian dissident Alexei Navalny’s daughter, a Stanford University student.)

We want these students not only because some of them might stick around after graduation and contribute to the U.S. economy, but also because their studies here expose them to liberal democratic values. If they or other skilled Russian immigrant workers return home one day, they can be emissaries for American goodwill. Educating the world’s talent is a useful diplomatic tool (as China has learned).

No doubt the usual anti-immigrant forces will claim that admitting more Russians would mean inviting spies into our midst. There is already, however, an intricate security screening process for refugees, skilled workers and other visa applicants; we could always add more layers of vetting, too.

Our goal should be to punish Putin while minimizing harm to American consumers and innocent Russians. A convenient way to do that: Offer more Russians a better life, here.

[Chip]

The Guardian reports that a Russian brigade commander was run over by a tank driven by his troops.

Evidently, they had suffered around 50% casualties and were rather disgruntled.

[TSherbs]

The Guardian reports that a Russian brigade commander was run over by a tank driven by his troops.

Evidently, they had suffered around 50% casualties and were rather disgruntled.

Intentional? Yikes!

[welch]

The Guardian reports that a Russian brigade commander was run over by a tank driven by his troops.

Evidently, they had suffered around 50% casualties and were rather disgruntled.

Intentional? Yikes!

Guardian cautions that it does not have reliable sources and details. However, Ukraine says it has killed another Russian general.

Today's assessment from ISW warns against headlines in the Times and the Post that say Russians have shifted focus to Luhansk and Donetsk. Yes, a Russian army spokesman says that the invasion has accomplished stage one goals and is now moving to "liberate" the breakaway regions, but this was all for a Russian audience. Russians, ISW says, remain dug in near Kyiv and Kharkiv, and might be trying to reassemble units from broken remains of units hurt earlier. Russian army wants Russian people to believe it never wanted Kyiv.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...sment-march-25

[Scrawler]

Some of my fathers family lives in Poland 40 miles west of Ukraine. They are experiencing refuges and empty store shelves.

I have 9 cousins hiding out at a farm near Lviv and one in Truskavets. I am able to communicate with Truskavets but not the farm. The only thing that has disgusted me more than this invasion was the stories my mother and father told me about how the Russians treated them. Putin is not getting his Russian Empire.

[Scrawler]

They are the same country that produced the Lada…

If you ever are interested in Russian hot rodding and seeing what they can do with a Lada, take a look at Garage 54 on YouTube.

[dneal]

From Reuters.

If correct, it looks like Putin will “settle” for the land bridge and Crimea - consolidating his gains there.

EUROPE NEWS
MARCH 26, 2022 / 03:16 AM
As Ukraine forces counter near Kyiv, Russia scales back goals
MARIUPOL/LVIV, Ukraine (Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy pushed for further talks with Russia as Moscow signalled it was scaling back its ambitions to focus on territory claimed by Russian-backed separatists in the east after attacks elsewhere stalled.
In an announcement on Friday appearing to indicate more limited goals, the Russian Defence Ministry said a first phase of its operation was mostly complete and it would now focus on the Donbas region bordering Russia, which has pro-Moscow separatist enclaves.
“The combat potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been considerably reduced, which ... makes it possible to focus our core efforts on achieving the main goal, the liberation of Donbas,” said Sergei Rudskoi, head of the Russian General Staff’s Main Operational Directorate.
Breakaway Russian-backed forces have been fighting Ukrainian forces in Donbas and the adjoining Luhansk region since 2014. They declared independence with Moscow’s blessing - but not recognised by the West - soon before the Feb. 24 invasion.
Reframing Russia’s goals may make it easier for President Vladimir Putin to claim a face-saving victory, military analysts said.
Moscow had said the goals for what it calls its “special operation” include demilitarising and “denazifying” its neighbour. Western officials say the invasion is unjustified and illegal, aimed at toppling Zelenskiy’s pro-NATO government.
Weeks of on-and-off peace talks have failed to make significant progress. In a video address late Friday, Zelenskiy said his troops’ resistance had dealt Russia “powerful blows”.
“Our defenders are leading the Russian leadership to a simple and logical idea: we must talk, talk meaningfully, urgently and fairly,” Zelenskiy said.
In what officials billed as a major address in Poland U.S. President Joe Biden on Saturday “will deliver remarks on the united efforts of the free world to support the people of Ukraine, hold Russia accountable for its brutal war, and defend a future that is rooted in democratic principles,” the White House said in a statement.
The United Nations has confirmed 1,081 civilian deaths and 1,707 injuries in Ukraine since the invasion but says the real toll is likely higher.
Some 136 children have been killed so far been during the invasion, Ukraine’s prosecutor general office said on Saturday.
Russia’s defence ministry said 1,351 Russian soldiers had been killed and 3,825 wounded, the Interfax news agency reported. Ukraine says 15,000 Russian soldiers have died. Reuters could not independently verify the claims.
LAID WASTE
Despite the carnage, Russian troops have failed to capture and hold any major city in the month since invading Ukraine. Instead, they have bombarded cities, laid waste to urban areas and driven a quarter of Ukraine’s 44 million people from their homes.
More than 3.7 million of them have fled abroad, half to neighbouring Poland in the west, where Biden on Friday met soldiers from the U.S. Army’s 82nd Airborne Division bolstering the NATO alliance’s eastern flank.
“Hundreds of thousands of people are being cut off from help by Russian forces and are besieged in places like Mariupol,” Biden said. “It’s like something out of a science fiction movie.”
Footage from the southeastern port, home to 400,000 before the war, showed destroyed buildings, burnt out vehicles and shell-shocked survivors venturing out for water and provisions. Residents have buried victims in makeshift graves as the ground thaws.
Local officials, citing witness accounts, said they estimated 300 people were killed in the bombing of a theatre in Mariupol on March 16.
The city council had not previously provided a toll and made clear it was not possible to determine an exact figure after the incident. Russia has denied bombing the theatre or targeting civilians.
COUNTERATTACKS AROUND KYIV
Battle lines near Kyiv have been frozen for weeks with two main Russian armoured columns stuck northwest and east of the capital. A British intelligence report described a Ukrainian counteroffensive that had pushed Russians back in the east.
“Ukrainian counterattacks, and Russian forces falling back on overextended supply lines, have allowed Ukraine to reoccupy towns and defensive positions up to 35 km (22 miles) east of Kyiv,” the report said.
Volodymyr Borysenko, mayor of Boryspol, an eastern suburb where Kyiv’s main airport is located, said 20,000 civilians had evacuated the area, answering a call to clear out so Ukrainian troops could counterattack.
On the other main front outside Kyiv, to the capital’s northwest, Ukrainian forces have been trying to encircle Russian troops in the suburbs of Irpin, Bucha and Hostomel, reduced to ruins by heavy fighting.
The cities of Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy north and east of Kyiv have also endured devastating bombardment. Chernihiv was effectively surrounded by Russian forces, its governor said.
Britain said it would fund 2 million pounds ($2.6 million) worth of food supplies for areas encircled by Russian forces, following a request from the Ukrainian government.
Thousands of miles from Ukraine, Russia was conducting military drills on islands claimed by Tokyo, Japanese media said on Saturday, days after Moscow halted peace talks with Japan because of its sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine.

[TSherbs]

Some of my fathers family lives in Poland 40 miles west of Ukraine. They are experiencing refuges and empty store shelves.

I have 9 cousins hiding out at a farm near Lviv and one in Truskavets. I am able to communicate with Truskavets but not the farm. The only thing that has disgusted me more than this invasion was the stories my mother and father told me about how the Russians treated them. Putin is not getting his Russian Empire.

We wish them the best of luck and safety.

[welch]

dneal, the ISW evaluation argues that we should not take the Russian announcement in the direction that Reuters takes it. The announcement was internal, meant for the Russian people. Probably to distract them from the failures at Kyiv and Kharkiv. "What? We didn't undertake the Special Military Operation (SMO) to take Kyiv! There has been no failure. The SMO is only about liberating Luhansk and Donets." Meanwhile, ISW says, Russians have built defensive positions around Kharkiv and Kyiv as they bombard the cities. It is still siege warfare.

[TSherbs]

Reminds me of when that military commander said that the hitting of the hospital was intentional (because it was a military post, they said). IE, "We don't make mistakes."

[welch]

Reminds me of when that military commander said that the hitting of the hospital was intentional (because it was a military post, they said). IE, "We don't make mistakes."

Sadly true.

[dneal]

dneal, the ISW evaluation argues that we should not take the Russian announcement in the direction that Reuters takes it. The announcement was internal, meant for the Russian people. Probably to distract them from the failures at Kyiv and Kharkiv. "What? We didn't undertake the Special Military Operation (SMO) to take Kyiv! There has been no failure. The SMO is only about liberating Luhansk and Donets." Meanwhile, ISW says, Russians have built defensive positions around Kharkiv and Kyiv as they bombard the cities. It is still siege warfare.

I know a lot of intel folks, and have been around them my entire career. We've been chatting about Ukraine through various conduits since this led off.Like the majority of humanity, they vary in capability and skill. They get some things right, and they get some things wrong. It's the nature of their business - which is just educated guesses.

I looked at ISW when you first shared it, saw GEN Keane's name attached (and explained earlier what that means for contracts, etc...). Their reports are very professional - just the sort of thing I'm used to seeing. I noted most of their information is open source. That's standard practice, and it's no small task to scour all that, "sort through the wheat and the chaff", and put together a product. That's what intel bubbas do.

I also looked at the bios of the analysts at ISW. Mainly young people with bachelors in international studies, political science, etc... The military equivalent of 2nd Lieutenants, but with no military experience. That must be taken into account too. They still don't have unit size indicators at the top of the enemy icons (the "XX" you see above some, indicates it is a division, for example) - and those are the ones around Kiev. Really? They still don't know if Russia sent Divisions, Corps, Brigades, etc... at this point? I wouldn't want to be a G2 in a theater army who still couldn't tell the boss estimated size of the enemy formations a month into a campaign.

They may be right, and they may be wrong. There are several plausible alternatives to their assessment, and I've said from the beginning that I disagree with their argument that Kiev is the Main Effort. Like them, I may be right and I may be wrong. No one knows but Putin. I certainly wouldn't take ISW as any final authority. Just one of many assessments.

Russian massed artillery is just how they fight (and have since WWII) - so it's hard to determine intent from them doing that now. Building defenses is basic tactics - particularly when you've not had any semblance of security and have been paying for that for a month. It's hard to determine intent from that as well.

Crimea and the land bridge is in Putin's strategic interest - simply because of Sevastopol. That's the bare requirement, and where he committed his professional army (compared to the largely conscript force around Kiev and Kharkiv). Getting the whole country is a bonus that would be worth some risk, from a Russian perspective.

Did he think his forces would walk over Ukraine, like in 2014? Maybe. Did he just use it as a bargaining position? Maybe. Did he use it as a feint to draw Ukrainian forces away from the east? Maybe. Again, no one knows. I don't believe he expected this level of resistance nor this level of failure of his forces. I don't believe he expected this level of global outrage (and the will to sanction him and provide weapon systems to Ukraine). So does he double down? Does he just go scorched earth and withdraw? Does he negotiate for Crimea and the east?

Signaling internally or externally that the real goal was Crimea and the east is an indicator. He needs leverage for negotiations, and he lost quite a lot in his early failures. Shelling cities is about all he has at the moment. I see the Reuter's report as a signal he's ready to get out of this, and what he's willing to settle for.

[welch]

I posted ISW because it cautions readers against the claims by Reuters that I read echoed in the NY Times and the Post. Maybe the Guardian as well. All sigh with relief that Russia has shifted its target to Luhansk and Donetsk. That unanimity and the quiet sigh ("the good guys have almost won!") that Russia has reduced its aim make it seem right to be cautious.

I remember that, from the beginning, you saw the "land bridge" from Crimea to the Donbas as the Russian target. That would have been a rational goal.

[dneal]

Narratives have reasons and purposes. After seeing how developed information operations have become, I'm cautious against all of them - to include the narratives spun by our own media about our own politics. It's just the new reality of modern media, the internet, etc... Everybody has an agenda, and they range from selling you a particular brand of soft drink to getting you to support a particular brand of politics.

I don't get wrapped up in the what so much as the why. When I see Russia announce their "refocus", I just see a shift in the narrative. I think this one is significant, and is signaling something. It certainly could be an attempt to deceive Ukrainian forces or something along those lines, but I think it's more likely they're seeding the idea of the "win" (as you mentioned too).

Although that may be for the Russian population, it doesn't mean we can't glean something from it.

[welch]

I took a look at the ISW analysts. Yes: all all BA people in international affairs, apparently recent BA. Young. Probably good for threshing all the wheat and chaff. They have references. Who does the higher level thinking?

[dneal]

Who does the higher level thinking?

My question too. There are a few more senior folks on the staff, but sometimes “expert” analysis echos groupthink (it happens in the DOD too…). I don’t know who is red teaming / 10th manning the product.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m impressed with what they produce. I just see some things that “brief well”, but have plausible alternatives.

[welch]

Al Jazeera on what it would take for Russians to push Putin from power.

Is the Ukraine war weakening Putin’s position in Russia?

While increasingly isolated, analysts say the Russian leader is unlikely to be removed from power by a mass uprising or coup.

My quick take:

- There cannot be a popular uprising. Putin's security forces are too strong; he and the security put down protests against the last fraudulent election, in 2012. There is less chance of it happening now.

- The Old Oligarchs, those who got their riches in the 1990s, were tamed early in Putin's rule. Stay out of politics, he warned, and he backed his warnings by arresting a few of the most important oligarchs. The rest have gotten the message. They oppose the invasion, but they know enough just to keep quiet and hope it all goes away. Someday.

- The New Oligarchs, those who came to power with Putin, are old KGB people. They are loyal. They behave as secret policemen. They support Putin and they know he watches anyone who might become too strong. Further, as the war goes badly, Putin will look for people to blame. He has stepped on the intelligence chief, probably for having told Putin that the invasion would be easy. That was what Putin wanted to hear, but it doesn't matter.

- Maybe the army could unseat Putin. The army probably disliked the invasion, and the army has suffered in the invasion. Putin is suspicious, especially, of the military. He watches its leaders. Still, the army is beyond his total control.

- A surprising suggestion: if the invasion continues to go badly, if the sanctions hurt so much that the casualties, the draft, and the economy wobble off balance, the regional governors might find themselves having to face all of it. While Putin has isolated himself from governing, these people have no choice. The country could spin so hard that, by centrifugal force, the regions could split away. Leaving Putin in a bunker somewhere.


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...king-in-russia