Economic Downturn and Pen Buying?

[top pen]

I don't know enough about economics to quite understand if we are entering a major downturn, but the cost of living has definitely gone up in the UK. I have had some pens listed (on Ebay) during the last few years. I have seen a huge decline in the last 2 months. My specific sales aren't that relevant as I'm thinking about trends. I don't know if the issue is the changes Ebay has put in place recently or if we are entering a downturn. It really got me wondering how the pen market is affected due to to economic down turns. I wasn't collecting pens back in 2008.


I can appreciate pens are luxuries so the ubiquitous items may become cheaper. But I would guess the premium collectables may retain their value as those who have the money are often more isolated from changes in the cost of living?

I thought it would be an interesting topic.

[An old bloke]

Rising costs (inflation) plus wages/income not keeping pace (there are many reasons for a lag) equals less disposable capital. The follow-on from that is a less money to spend for 'recreation'. The end result usually is less trips to the pub, fewer dinners out or takeaway meals, and fewer or less expensive 'toys' (pens and ink for those of us here) being bought.

Is that an economic downturn? Potentially yes, especially if it goes on long enough and inflation rates remain high.

[Sandy]

With the lock down in the UK at an end, I thiink peple are prioritising their disposable income on going out.

Holidays, days out with the kids and so on.

People spent lots of money on books, paper and pens oever the last 2 years.

Certainly, my budget for tickets and shows has increased, whilst my budget and desirefor pens and notebooks has decreased.

[Chuck Naill]

The Wing Sung 601 “flightier” costs the same @ $20. There is no better proletariat pen for daily use.

[da vinci]

It’s an interesting topic (to me at least) and I think the comments about available funds for spending on pens getting less are right. But I don’t know whether prices will actually go down. Will just less pens be sold each year. Will sellers broaden their markets to other countries not affected in the same way? Will there be less new pens sold and more used/vintage? If anyone has a definitive answer I would love to hear it.

[Chuck Naill]

Perhaps this is germane, there is a shortage of Rolex watches but not a shortage of watches .

[Chrissy]

I'm currently satisfied with my collection of pens and inks so don't have to buy either. It doesn't mean I don't buy the occasional pen or ink but I no longer look for particular ones like I used to when I was at the beginning of my collection phase.

Currently everything in the UK is rising in price and we will have a winter of high fuel prices to get through. I can only spend my money once so feel that I need to concentrate on other things to spend it on at the moment.

[manoeuver]

Doubt we'll see a lot of movement in pen prices as an inflationary environment is different than simple supply and demand with a stable currency.

Remember, inflation is not rising prices. It's devaluation of fiat currency and it's finally upon us after decades of profligate money printing.

Lowering prices when there's inflation afoot is a desperate last-ditch attempt to forestall doom.

good luck everybody.

[TFarnon]

I think you have it about right. I'm well insulated (thanks, job in an extreme shortage field) from economic downturns. I know that gas/petrol prices are part of the problem, but I'm old enough to remember the OPEC oil embargo in the 1970's, and for whatever reason I took it to heart. When I've even owned a car, it's always been something with good mileage. And now, I have my dream car: a tiny, gas-sipping Prius C (hybrid). It still doesn't cost all that much to fill my tank, and I don't have to fill it often. I don't have children or a spouse. I have cats, and I can afford them.

The only reason I'm not buying quite as many pens as before is because I have one of nearly everything I want, or might want. I also tend to spend more per pen than I used to, but that preceded the current downturn/correction/bear market/recession. Now that I feel financially stable, I don't balk at paying somewhere up to $1000 for a pen I truly desire. That isn't very often, but it's possible for me now.

[TFarnon]

I still enjoy hunting for interesting pens, but that's half the fun. Sometimes once I find a pen I thought I wanted, I find that the pen doesn't appeal as strongly any more. Still, the hunt was fun.

[amk]

There are a couple of things that may be connected here.

One is that the market for many collectible items goes in cycles. Pen prices appear to have risen very strongly over the last 5 years or so; Pelikan has been putting up the prices of special and limited editions, Platinum has vastly increased the price of new 3776 editions, and there has been a vast increase in the number of artisan penmakers. If a cycle is coming to an end that might also be reflected in the lower demand from collectors who feel they have everything they need.

Secondly, there is the economic downturn plus inflation plus the end of lockdowns. There is so much going on that it's difficult to get a reading. However, I would guess a majority of pen nerds have reasonably remunerative jobs, or reasonably generous pensions and savings. If we get a major downturn in dividend payments, or big redundancies in professional jobs, my guess is that is when the pen market would really start to hurt. We haven't got there yet.

[TSherbs]

I'm about to cut my income in half. I'm done buying pens, for the most part. Maybe some inks here and there. All my expenses are going up, income going down. I'll be reading more, traveling less. Buying less.

[manoeuver]

There are a couple of things that may be connected here.

One is that the market for many collectible items goes in cycles. Pen prices appear to have risen very strongly over the last 5 years or so; Pelikan has been putting up the prices of special and limited editions, Platinum has vastly increased the price of new 3776 editions, and there has been a vast increase in the number of artisan penmakers. If a cycle is coming to an end that might also be reflected in the lower demand from collectors who feel they have everything they need.

Secondly, there is the economic downturn plus inflation plus the end of lockdowns. There is so much going on that it's difficult to get a reading. However, I would guess a majority of pen nerds have reasonably remunerative jobs, or reasonably generous pensions and savings. If we get a major downturn in dividend payments, or big redundancies in professional jobs, my guess is that is when the pen market would really start to hurt. We haven't got there yet.

good points there. Also keep in mind the surging population of younger FP enthusiasts just starting their careers, their tastes in pens, etc, and their prospects in the near/mid future.

[BlkWhiteFilmPix]

Yes, Chuck, Rolex production slowed due to the lockdown, and even now doesn't keep up with demand. Waiting lists supposedly a year or more for a new one. I was thinking about buying an Explorer II until I saw the price.

Bought a Luminox Nighthawk GMT instead. Luminox, which makes watches for Navy SEALS, offers a 25% discount for U.S. first responders, active duty military, and veterans.

[BlkWhiteFilmPix]

The cost of living is up in the U.S., too. Copper river salmon is $49.95 a pound. The fishmonger said it's a combination of the fisherman's fuel costs and the cost to ship the salmon from Alaska. And of course everything is up.

You make a good point about the changes at eBay. I'm not comfortable giving them a bank account number.

As for buying pens: Like Chrissy, I'm satisfied with the pens and ink I have.

Thank you for introducing this interesting topic.

[ovachlena]

With inflation, prices for everything always rise, now, for example, the same thing is happening.