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Thread: The "I can't fathom this election" thread, 2024 edition.

  1. #21
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    Default Re: The "I can't fathom this election" thread, 2024 edition.

    hahaha

    cool

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    Senior Member dneal's Avatar
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    Default Re: The "I can't fathom this election" thread, 2024 edition.

    Quote Originally Posted by TSherbs View Post
    Only the state borders/entities outlined in the EC set-up make any of this an issue. In other words, the EC set-up (including the winner-take-all aspect in 48 of the states) is part of what continues this state identity concept that contributes to this idea of being "overwhelmed" by other states. What is more "overwhelming" is how a relatively permanent minority party in any state is overwhelmed and erased by the winner-take-all aspect of the EC process. A Republican in Vermont (right now) might as well stay home, in terms of the presidential election. Interestingly, Vermont had been fairly solidly Republican for decades prior, including during FDR's time (LBJ was the only Dem for Vermont until B. Clinton--and been blue ever since)
    An example of word-salad.
    "A truth does not mind being questioned. A lie does not like being challenged."

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    Default Re: The "I can't fathom this election" thread, 2024 edition.

    Quote Originally Posted by TSherbs View Post
    hahaha

    cool
    Chuck, somebody is trying to steal your schtick. Next he'll be using emojis.
    "A truth does not mind being questioned. A lie does not like being challenged."

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    Default Re: The "I can't fathom this election" thread, 2024 edition.

    Catching someone who pocketed only two ballots increases my confidence in the process:
    Former Republican congressional candidate arrested for stealing ballots - https://www.reuters.com/world/us/for...ts-2024-10-29/

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    Default Re: The "I can't fathom this election" thread, 2024 edition.

    Quote Originally Posted by TSherbs View Post
    Catching someone who pocketed only two ballots increases my confidence in the process:
    Former Republican congressional candidate arrested for stealing ballots - https://www.reuters.com/world/us/for...ts-2024-10-29/
    Wrong thread.
    "A truth does not mind being questioned. A lie does not like being challenged."

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    Default Re: The "I can't fathom this election" thread, 2024 edition.

    Thought you said you were tired of all the threads.

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    Default Re: The "I can't fathom this election" thread, 2024 edition.

    It hardly seems to matter where any of this is posted any more because next thing you know, somebody is saying somebody else can't read or is lying or is suffering from one sort of mental ailment or another or making a threat or saying someone is going to hell.

    Etc.

    See you sometime after the election.

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    Default Re: The "I can't fathom this election" thread, 2024 edition.

    Quote Originally Posted by TSherbs View Post
    It hardly seems to matter where any of this is posted any more because next thing you know, somebody is saying somebody else can't read or is lying or is suffering from one sort of mental ailment or another or making a threat or saying someone is going to hell.

    Etc.

    See you sometime after the election.
    "Somebody?"
    Sorry TSherbs...... When you bring a monster to the dance, you really are obligated to dance with it.
    Last edited by 724Seney; October 30th, 2024 at 03:37 AM.

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    Default Re: The "I can't fathom this election" thread, 2024 edition.


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    Default Re: The "I can't fathom this election" thread, 2024 edition.


  12. #31
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    Default Re: The "I can't fathom this election" thread, 2024 edition.

    Quote Originally Posted by TSherbs View Post
    Thought you said you were tired of all the threads.
    I don't doubt you thought that, but it's just one more example of your poor reading comprehension and inability to discern proper context.

    The hypocrisy of your frequently redirecting people to other (or new) threads (that you create) is an added bonus.
    "A truth does not mind being questioned. A lie does not like being challenged."

  13. #32
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    Default Re: The "I can't fathom this election" thread, 2024 edition.

    Back on topic.

    I saw a few clips of Chris Cuomo's town hall, and decided the whole thing was worth a watch.

    It's contentious. It has partisans making their not-completely-true-or-fair talking points. But it seems relatively representative of the political landscape, and Cuomo did a good job moderating and coming across as fair.

    Last edited by dneal; Yesterday at 06:14 PM.
    "A truth does not mind being questioned. A lie does not like being challenged."

  14. #33
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    Default Re: The "I can't fathom this election" thread, 2024 edition.

    The townhall had Professor Allan Lichtman speak briefly on his "13 Keys" methodology to predicting a Presidential victory. He has been correct in 9 of the past 10 elections (although he claims he was correct with Gore, who ultimately lost).

    His thesis is that if 6 or more keys are against the party in the White House, the challenger wins. If the statement is true, it is an incumbent party advantage. If false, a challenger party advantage.

    The 13 Keys below, which I color coded to his view. Red is "false" and favors Trump. Blue is "true" and favors Harris. Black has no opinion:

    1. The White House party gained House seats during the midterms.
    2. The sitting President is running for reelection.
    3. The White House party avoided a primary contest.
    4. There is no 3rd party challenger.
    5. The short-term economy is strong.
    6. The long-term economic growth has been as good as the last two terms.
    7. The White House party has made major changes to national policy.
    8. There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
    9. The White House is untainted by scandal.

    10. The incumbent is charismatic.
    11. The challenger is uncharismatic.
    12. The White House party has a major failure in foreign policy.
    13. The White House party has foreign policy success.

    3 for Trump, which is 3 short of the thesis for Harris to lose.

    I see a few problems with his estimation of "true" or "false".

    1. False is correct. Democrats lost the House in the midterms.
    2. False is correct. Biden is not running.
    3. True is debatable to false. Obama and Clinton had no challengers. Trump had no challenger (in 2020). The DNC went to extraordinary lengths to prevent challengers this cycle.
    4. True is mostly correct. While there are other parties (Green, Libertarian, etc...), there is no Ross Perot type 3rd party candidate. RFK Jr would have been that person this cycle, and aligning with Trump confounds this measurement.
    5. True is debatable, and likely false. Voters estimate the economy by the price of goods and services and spending power, not economists' opinions or market graphs.
    6. True is debatable. See #5.
    7. True, but at least one of those policies (border) angers voters that normally vote D. See: minority anger at migrants in metro areas like Chicago and New York.
    8. True is debatable, and likely false. There are no George Floyd riots, but society is highly polarized. DEI, Trans issues, Abortion, etc...
    9. Demonstrably false. Biden's cognitive ability being a bipartisan example.
    10. Demonstrably false. Harris is the inverse of charismatic. Biden is the inverse of charismatic.
    11. Debatable. Publicly Trump is a love or hate persona, but he's charismatic. People who meet him in person are wooed, like they were with Clinton.
    12. Arguably false. Afghanistan is clearly a failure. Ukraine can be argued. Israel is problematic for Democrats.
    13. Arguably false. Ukraine is the only case I can think of that is remotely favorable to the White House.

    I see more than 6 "keys" that work against Harris.

    -edit-

    The above came from This USA Today article.

    Here is a slightly different version of definitions from Wikipedia. Note the numbers do not correlate exactly with USA Today's..

    Screenshot 2024-10-31 at 8.29.03 PM.png
    Last edited by dneal; Yesterday at 07:33 PM.
    "A truth does not mind being questioned. A lie does not like being challenged."

  15. #34
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    Default Re: The "I can't fathom this election" thread, 2024 edition.

    Ron Paul posted on X (which Elon acknowledged and welcomed) that he would be happy to join a "Department of Government Efficiency".

    If that doesn't persuade Libertarians to vote Trump, nothing will.
    "A truth does not mind being questioned. A lie does not like being challenged."

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